On Wednesday, Stanford freshman small forward Harrison Ingram announced that he is declaring for the 2022 NBA Draft. Ingram released the following statement on social media:
First, I would like to thank Coach Haase and the entire coaching staff for believing in me and providing me the opportunity to play and represent Stanford University.
To my teammates, through the ups and downs we always stayed together. Every time we stepped on the court was something special. Our bond will last forever.
To my friends and family, thank you for always being there for me. Dad and Mom, y’all have been there for me from the start and sacrificed so much to make sure I had everything I needed. I want to thank my brother, Will, for pushing me and my sister Lauren, for always supporting me. To my friends, thank you.
With that being said, I would like to announce I will be declaring for the NBA draft.
Including the Pac-12 tournament, Ingram averaged 10.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game this past season for five double-doubles on 38.8% shooting from the field, 31.3% shooting from 3-point range, and 66.3% shooting from the foul line. He was named Pac-12 Freshman of the Year. An award he ran away with.
Throughout the season, Ingram was pretty consistent in terms of his rebounding and facilitating. He was one of the most well-rounded freshmen in the country and at 6’8”, 230 pounds, he has great size for an NBA small forward. When you watch him play, he certainly passes the eye test in terms of what an NBA prospect is supposed to look like.
At the same time, Ingram struggled with his scoring consistency. He was very much up and down in that department. In the 32 games he played including the Pac-12 tournament, he had 17 games where he scored at least 10+ points. His season-high was 21 points at home against USC. That also means he had 15 games in which he scored 9 points or fewer. In the games when he scored double figures, he was really on and in games when he wasn’t, he was really off.
Just to illustrate this a bit more, in the 17 games he scored 10+ points, he averaged 15.2 points per game. Stanford was 12-5 in those games. In the 15 games he scored 9 points or fewer, he averaged 5.2 points per game. Stanford was 4-11 in those games. So, he truly was a very hot and cold player his freshman year. When he was hot, Stanford did very well. When he was cold, Stanford really struggled.
An NBA team that is looking to select him is going to have to bank on the scoring consistency improving and really falling in love with his overall package: His size, rebounding, defense, and ability to facilitate. Like I said, he passes the eye test with flying colors. It’s just that when you look at his scoring inconsistency, that makes you wonder if maybe he’s coming out too early.
That bleeds into his NBA draft projection. I could see him going as high as late first round and I could also see him falling deep into the second round. I don’t think he’ll go undrafted. Someone is likely to at least draft him somewhere in the second round, but once you enter the second round, it’s a really fluid deal and teams aren’t going to draft you out of charity. Teams start thinking about other things beyond who can help them right away. They start thinking about draft and stash options, picks they can make to preserve cap space, etc. This is all to say that if you aren’t a for sure first round selection, there is a real risk entering the draft. Especially if you are a freshman or sophomore.
There is of course the possibility that Ingram later pulls his name out and returns to Stanford. He could just be testing the NBA draft waters and upon getting feedback from NBA teams at the combine, he could later decide it’s in his best interest to return to Stanford for another year. June 13 at 5:00 PM ET is the deadline for that. So in that vein, it’s not a bad move at all for him to at least enter the draft and see what kind of feedback he gets. That all being said, when you read Ingram’s announcement, he does seem to be pretty set in his decision. It came off much more as a final goodbye than a “Hey, I’m testing the waters maybe I’ll be back” kinda post. But time will ultimately tell.
In terms of what this means for Stanford, assuming Ingram is indeed gone as is the vibe, they’re losing their best all-around player, though they aren’t losing their best scorer. Their best scorer is junior forward Spencer Jones, who averaged 12.0 points and 4.5 rebounds per game on 47.4% shooting from the field, 37.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.0% shooting from the foul line.
In the 31 games he played (he missed the home victory versus Dartmouth), Jones had 16 games of 10+ points and seven games of 20+ points including back-to-back career-highs to close out the season with 26 points against Arizona State in their Pac-12 tournament win and 28 points in their narrow Pac-12 tournament loss to Arizona. In the games that Jones scored in double figures, Stanford was 8-8 overall and in the games he scored 20+ points, they were 3-4. Though to be fair, two of those losses in which he scored 20+ points were games they played Arizona. So he often had some of his best outings against the toughest competition they faced all season.
In order for Stanford to have a better season next year with Ingram gone, they’re really going to need Spencer Jones to have a breakout season and average at least 18+ points per game. This is of course on top of the returning players all getting better and incoming freshmen Jaylen Thompson and Ryan Agarwal being able to contribute right away. There is a path for Stanford to be better next season. After all, it was Spencer Jones who stole the show at the Pac-12 tournament. Not Harrison Ingram. But others are going to have to really step up and show a lot of growth. It also remains to be seen if Stanford will be able to add anyone in the transfer portal. That’s another wild card that is yet to be settled.
When looking at the futures of both Stanford and Harrison Ingram, there are a lot of unknowns at the moment. It’s unknown if Stanford will be able to have a better season next year with him gone and it’s also unknown if Ingram will be able to solidify himself as a first round selection. When considering all this, it does seem like it would be mutually beneficial for both to have another season together, but the world we live in now is a world where the NBA dangles so much money in front of guys that it can just be too tempting to pass up. Especially if you are 19 years old and wanting to financially secure your future.
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