On Wednesday at 2:00 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks and Varsity Network radio, #2 Stanford women’s basketball will take on the Oregon State Beavers at home. Stanford comes in at 18-3 overall and 9-0 in the Pac-12 while Oregon State comes in at 11-7 overall and 4-4 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Sunday, Stanford had a commanding 83-57 win at USC. Cameron Brink led the way for the Cardinal with 26 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 blocks en route to her fourth Pac-12 Player of the Week award of the season.
RECAP: #2 Stanford WBB takes care of business at USC
On Oregon State: While Stanford is trying to hang on to a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, Oregon State is trying to hang on to any spot that the tournament committee might give them. They’re considered to be sitting on the good side of the bubble at the moment and would certainly benefit from keeping this game within 15 points. Style points do matter to the committee and more specifically, margin of victory is factored into a team’s NET ranking. So, Oregon State has a chance to improve their tournament chances today, even with a loss.
The two Beavers players scoring in double figures on average are freshman guard Talia von Oelhoffen (14.9 points & 3.3 rebounds) and sophomore forward Taylor Jones (12.4 points & 6.9 rebounds). Jones will miss the remainder of the season due to shoulder surgery, so it’s now going to be on von Oelhoffen to carry the load. The loss of Jones is huge for the Beavers and could end up costing them a spot in the NCAA tournament.
As a team, the Beavers average 65.6 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field, 32.7% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.4% shooting from the foul line. They average 41.9 rebounds, 14.8 assists, 4.9 steals, 5.9 blocks, and 15.3 turnovers per game. They also average a +8.2 rebound margin and a -5.3 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 59.6 points per game on 35.3% shooting from the field, 29.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.5% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is keep Oregon State off the glass. That’s a major strength of the Beavers. Fortunately for Stanford, that’s one of their strengths as well (+10.0 margin) and with Jones out, they should have no trouble checking off this box. Still, Stanford will need to bring energy inside in order to accomplish this.
Secondly, Stanford needs to capitalize on Oregon State’s turnover margin. The Beavers have a terrible turnover margin. Much worse than Stanford, who quite honestly isn’t that great in this department (+0.5 margin). If Stanford is taking care of the ball and winning the turnover battle, they should be in good shape.
Lastly, Stanford needs to come out with a lot of energy early on. If Oregon State is hanging around at halftime, this could end up being a bit of a game. Stanford needs to come out from the jump with a lot of focus and put the Beavers away. Oregon State is not a team you ever want to give any sort of life to.
Prediction: Stanford is obviously the much better team and they’re at home. So, I obviously have Stanford winning this game. As far as a final score is concerned, I actually think Stanford will win this one convincingly wire to wire. Especially considering that the Beavers will be without Jones. Stanford 76 Oregon State 52 is how I see this playing out.
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