On Tuesday at 6:00 PM PT on KZSU radio, #12 Stanford baseball will take on Cal Poly on the road. Stanford comes in at 20-11 overall and 11-7 in the Pac-12 while Cal Poly comes in at 22-13 overall and 9-3 in the Big West. Stanford freshman right-handed pitcher Braden Montgomery (0-2, 8.10 ERA) vs. Cal Poly freshman left-handed pitcher Noah Larkin (2-1, 2.91 ERA) is the probable pitching matchup.
Last time out: On Saturday, Stanford defeated UCLA 11-0 to take two out of three games in their weekend series. Quinn Mathews was the winning pitcher en route to a Pac-12 Pitcher of the Week award.
RECAP: Cardinal blasts Bruins to take weekend series
On Cal Poly: The Mustangs are off to a strong start this season as is evident by their overall and Big West record. They’ve defeated two Pac-12 teams this year (Washington and Cal), so they have an ability to hang with power five competition. In their most recent series, they took two out of three at UC Irvine, so they’re coming in with some momentum of their own.
Sophomore short stop Brooks Lee is their top hitter across the board with a team-high .401 batting average to go along with a team-high seven home runs and a team-high 37 RBIs. He also has a team-high .693 slugging percentage and a team-high .503 on base percentage. He’s really the engine that makes their offense go.
The Mustangs do have two other hitters who are hitting above .300 in sophomore infielder Nick Marinconz (.325) and junior catcher Collin Villegas (.306), so they have some other bats as well. However, Marinconz and Villegas have combined for four home runs on the season, so they don’t have the power that Lee has.
As far as their pitching is concerned, Cal Poly has a very strong starter tonight in Larkin. If he’s able to hold down the fort, that should be a major strength of theirs in this contest. Their pitching staff has a 4.96 ERA on the season.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is contain Lee. If he has a big night, Cal Poly’s odds of winning are really good. If he doesn’t have a big night, Stanford should win this game. Rarely do you see a team so dependent on one guy, but this Cal Poly team really does seem to heavily rely on Lee to put up big numbers in order for them to win. Stanford has to make sure they’re pitching well to him and not giving him opportunities to hit home runs and generate a lot of runs with one swing.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is get strong production from their bullpen. In these Tuesday outings, the bullpen has been the questionable part for Stanford. It did them in against St. Mary’s and last week against San Francisco, the bullpen did just enough for them to win. It’s likely going to be a pitch by committee effort tonight, so everyone is going to need to do their part.
Finally, Stanford just needs to keep their bats hot. They averaged 10 runs in their two victories at UCLA over the weekend, so their hitting is coming in with some momentum. If Stanford can keep that up and everyone can join in on an offensive explosion, Stanford should be just fine.
Prediction: Stanford is ranked #12 in the nation right now and are coming in with a ton of momentum. On those grounds alone, they should be favored to win tonight. However, Cal Poly is having a very strong season as well and has shown they can beat Pac-12 competition. Being at home should help Cal Poly as well. I’m going to predict a Stanford victory, but I think this will be close. These Tuesday night games have not been easy for the Cardinal this year. Stanford 7 Cal Poly 5 is my prediction for this one.
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