One offshoot of the Pac-12’s future (now imminent demise) and what it means for Stanford is discussing the possibility of Stanford going independent in football. With Oregon and Washington apparently heading to the Big Ten and Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State looking like they are Big XII bound, it feels like Stanford and Cal to the Big Ten is the next shoe to drop. But, in the event that it doesn't happen and the Big XII doesn't want to add them (which I think they would), then going independent in football and staying in the Mountain-Pac or whatever it would be called is something that would have to be considered.
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By going independent, Stanford football could create a better schedule for themselves and up their odds of getting into a better bowl and the expanded college football playoff (12 teams come 2024) than if they were to play in the Mountain-Pac.
The biggest question that now needs to be asked is could Stanford pull this off? BYU went the independent route for a while and they ended up needing to find refuge in the Big XII. Notre Dame on the other hand has made it work just fine. It all comes down to whether or not Stanford is closer to being a BYU or to being a Notre Dame.
I think between the two, I think Stanford is definitely closer to being on par with Notre Dame than they are at being another BYU. Stanford is academically superior to Notre Dame and across all their sports is the more successful athletic program. While BYU does technically have a nationwide brand with their LDS church affiliation, their fan base really skews more to the western part of the country whereas Stanford truly does have a nationwide brand that is famous everywhere you go in the country because of how good the academics are.
Actually, Stanford is not just a nationwide brand. It’s an international brand. It’s one of the best universities in the world. So, that’s something that can help them pull off an independent move. They recruit nationwide and playing a more balanced schedule in terms of geography could have certain recruiting benefits.
The other piece to this that is important is that Stanford football is heavily steeped in tradition. They have rivalries with USC, Notre Dame, Cal, and to a lesser extent UCLA and even San Jose State. Going independent could allow Stanford to maintain those rivalries and also maintain relationships with other Ivy-Plus schools like Duke, Northwestern, and Vanderbilt. Their a big enough brand with enough tradition and weight that they could get a lot of schools to want to play them. Just like Notre Dame does. BYU unfortunately doesn’t have that same kind of pull.
So, what could a Stanford football schedule look like if they went independent? If you just look at the schools I listed above, Stanford could put together a decent schedule that is better than the schedule they would have in a weakened Mountain-Pac. Below is an example of what one could look like.
Week 1-Weber State (FCS)
Week 2-at USC
Week 3-at San Jose State
Week 4-Northwestern
Week 5-BYE
Week 6-UCLA
Week 7-at Duke
Week 8-at Vanderbilt
Week 9-Utah
Week 10-at Oregon
Week 11-at Washington
Week 12-Cal
Week 13-Notre Dame
Looking at that schedule, that’s something that should get most Stanford fans excited. And I should add, that’s on the weak side of the coin. They could always take out the Weber State home opener with someone better if they’d like or maybe they replace Vanderbilt with a different SEC team or Duke with a different ACC team. They wouldn’t have to necessarily play those same schools every year or start a rivalry with them. But, given the fact that those schools are in the Ivy Plus network, those are programs that are more likely to help them out given those relationships.
BYU would another program they could seek help from at times since they too were in a state of independence for a while and then just in general, given their brand, there are plenty of quality power fives schools that would be willing to set up a home and home with Stanford for a couple of seasons at a time. If you just look at the schedule as a whole, that’s 10 games against power-five level programs.
So, I think if we are looking at the schedule as a whole, the path to a better schedule is likely there if Stanford goes independent. It’s just a matter of staying vigilant in setting up a good schedule, maintaining those relationships, and being willing to take some risks.
Wrapping this up, I do think going independent in football is something that Stanford should at least be thinking about. Will they actually do it is the big question. If I had to guess, I would say they’re more likely to get a Big Ten invite with Cal or a Big XII invite with Cal as backup. That said, I think their national brand is strong enough to pull off a move to football independence.
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