Well, it’s official: The Colorado Buffaloes are leaving the Pac-12 and returning to the Big XII, which was their home from 1996-2010. The Buffaloes have been a bit of a weathervane over the years. They bolted the Big XII when things got tough for the conference and now are doing the same to the Pac-12 now that things are tough for them. The Big XII found a way to bounce back after being on death’s door and now the Pac-12 will look to do the same. Below are some of my thoughts on this latest realignment move with respect to Stanford and the Pac-12 at large.
Parting thoughts on Colorado
The Colorado Buffaloes brought stability to the Pac-12 and were a serviceable member during their tenure. They were better on the men’s and women’s basketball side than the football side and didn’t offer much value in any other sports. The only men’s sports they have are football, basketball, track & field, cross country, golf, and skiing. They actually have more women’s sports with basketball, cross country, track & field, golf, lacrosse, skiing, soccer, tennis, and volleyball. So in many ways, they are actually a bigger blow to the women’s athletics side than the men’s side. But as a whole, when you see an absence of baseball, softball, men’s soccer, gymnastics, and no sport that involves a swimming pool, you begin to see that they were kind of an odd fit for the Pac-12.
And circling back to how they did in football and men’s basketball, the two traditional revenue generating sports, this really isn’t that big of a loss. They were mediocre to bad in football and were solid in men’s basketball, always a threat to make the NCAA tournament and frequently making the tourney, but never a powerhouse program that threatened to win the league. Women’s basketball was a very similar deal. NCAA tournament level team, but that was it. Their Rocky Mountain counterpart in Salt Lake City has been one of the top teams in football, built a really solid women’s basketball program, been weaker in men’s basketball but having a better overall tradition, and then offering a lot more in other sports.
All of this is to say that while the Pac-12 would ideally like to keep Colorado as a member, if they had to pick one of their remaining 10 schools to defect, it would definitely be the Buffaloes. Losing the Buffaloes stings, but there are ways the Pac-12 can still bounce back to be a solid and respectable conference.
What it means for Stanford
For Stanford, the departure of Colorado doesn’t really change things a whole lot (at least in the short term) so long as the Pac-12 is able to stabilize itself with new members and secure a solid media rights deal. Stanford is arguably the most important athletic program in the Pac-12, winning the Director’s Cup again this year, and they know that the Pac-12 needs them far more than they need the Pac-12. Stanford has such a national brand, academic strength, and tradition that there is no way they get left without a seat at the table. They’re going to be fine.
And I think the same can be said for every other program in the Pac-12 except for maybe Oregon State and Washington State. Those two programs are at risk of being bumped down into the Mountain West or being left in the Pac-12 while everyone else leaves. But even they have some security by virtue of their relationships with Oregon and Washington.
Stanford certainly needs to be evaluating all of their options and keeping an ear out for any interesting invites that might come their way. But until that day comes, they can stay in the Pac-12 and continue to be one of the leading programs in keeping the conference together while also winning more Director’s Cup titles and being one of the most elite athletic programs in the nation.
What it means for the Pac-12
While the departure of Colorado shouldn’t make Stanford bat an eye, the Pac-12 should be doing all they can to get a media deal done and add new members in the process. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff on the surface appears to have goofed up yet again. At Pac-12 Football Media Day last week, he said he wasn’t worried about any members leaving and that the longer they wait for a deal, the better it will be. Perhaps he and the nine remaining schools are cool to see Colorado leave and feel they can restock with someone better. Perhaps they know what kind of deal they’re going to be getting and that Colorado jumped the gun and/or that they didn’t want Colorado as part of their future. But until we see a new media rights deal and the conference stabilize itself, Kliavkoff is going to look like a goofy commissioner. Perhaps even more goofy and inept than the vain commissioner who came before him.
The Pac-12 did release a statement after Colorado’s decision:
“The Pac-12 is comprised of world-leading universities and athletic programs who share a commitment to developing the next generation of leaders, supporting student-athletes’ academic and athletic excellence, and broad-based athletic success. We remain committed to our shared values and to continuing to invest in our student-athletes. Today’s decision by the University of Colorado has done nothing to disrupt that commitment.
“We are focused on concluding our media rights deal and securing our continued success and growth. Immediately following the conclusion of our media rights deal, we will embrace expansion opportunities and bring new fans, markets, excitement and value to the Pac-12.”
This isn’t a bad statement. I mean, what else are they going to say? I guess my only criticism of this is their insistence on securing a media rights deal and then expanding. I would think expansion would help them secure a better deal, but maybe there’s something that I’m just not getting.
The one thing that comes to mind is maybe they are hoping to land better programs than the ones I list below and that they can only land those programs with a better media deal. Like maybe they want to poach Kansas away from the Big XII or something along those lines, but it starts to feel like a chicken or egg situation. We need a media deal to land better teams. Yes, but you also need more teams to land a better media deal.
Best expansion candidates
Ok, so here’s the fun part. I like discussing expansion of leagues and things of that sort. I have a 41 team ecosystem on NBA2K. It’s a blast. I truly could discuss league reconfiguration all day long. The modalities and possible combinations are fun to think of.
Since I can’t go through every possible school for the Pac-12 to add, below are the top ten teams that I think the Pac-12 should look to add. In my opinion, the Pac-12 should look to at least get back to 12 schools and in all reality expand to 14. But that means adding three to five schools. Three to five schools that actually have value and can make the conference better. I do think there are some options out there, but the Pac-12 can’t sit on their haunches. They need to be on the attack and look to add programs as opposed to hunkering down and hoping they can survive this storm of conference realignment like they are the Donner Party. We all know what happened to them.
#1. BYU: The Pac-12 has turned their nose at BYU over the years because of their religious affiliation and not being a traditional research school. That rationale may have made sense in the past, but now the Pac-12 has to look at BYU and think they’d be a great fit to join their league even with those concerns. BYU is strong in football and men’s basketball while also having a very well-rounded athletic program. They’re a better all-around athletic fit than Colorado and they have a built in rivalry with Utah. Not to mention the fact that they are also a more academically selective school.
The big question here is would BYU accept a Pac-12 invite or would they prefer to have the satisfaction of rejecting the Pac-12. I know the feeling. I had a girl reject me only for her to miss out on getting courtside seats to watch Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. What a shame that was for her!
Still, while I think the revenge aspect would make things fun for BYU, I do think if the Pac-12 actually extended them an invite, BYU would accept provided (A) there were other members joining them (who I’ll list below), (B) their exit fees from the Big XII if any are covered by the Pac-12, and (C) if the Pac-12’s media deal is better. If those three conditions are met, I do think BYU would leave the Big XII for the Pac-12. The Pac-12 has a better class of academic schools, it’s a better geographic fit with more Latter-Day Saint members and BYU alumni living in the states that they cover, and I do think reuniting with Utah is something that they recognize would be good for their fanbase and athletic program as a whole.
#2. San Diego State: San Diego State makes a ton of sense for the Pac-12. They have an excellent men’s basketball program, a decent football program, and an overall pretty well-rounded athletic program. Their location in Southern California fits the Pac-12 like a glove and they also play in a very underrated media market that ranks the same size as Salt Lake City. The Aztecs would bring a passionate fan base with them and a real desire to compete. They could have a very similar type of impact on the conference that Utah has had and actually be an even better member of the conference than Colorado.
#3. SMU: SMU is located in Dallas, Texas and would give the Pac-12 access to the Lone Star State. The Mustangs have a football tradition and have been solid in men’s basketball. The total number of sports they have is actually pretty similar to Colorado. In many ways, this would be the best pure Colorado replacement the conference could add. A bit out of the way but bringing solid football and hoops to go along with a strong media market. The Pac-12 could carry on without skipping a beat if they replace Colorado with SMU. I really don’t see a difference between the two programs and if anything, SMU might be better just because of their location.
#4. Boise State: Boise State has long been considered too small for the Pac-12 and the Big XII, but the reality is that if you look at their body of work on the football side alone, they are worthy of an invite. People love the blue turf and see Boise State as an exciting football product. Everyone gets pumped up to play them. While they used to be seen as David going up against Goliath, they’re much more secure now and are no longer seen as an underdog. They are seen as one of the better football programs in the nation.
Boise State is a perfect geographic fit and has a history with plenty of Pac-12 programs like Oregon, Washington, and Utah. The only reason to not invite them is they aren’t great in anything else besides football, but since football is the most important sport, they’re a school you can add for their football alone. The other sports, they won’t add much, but it’s not like they’ll be terrible, either.
One last kind of side thought that I’ll just slap on at the end here: From a pure football standpoint, Boise State has been way better than Colorado. They’d be an upgrade.
#5. Utah State: Utah State is about the same size as Oregon State. On the smaller side yes, but big enough to be a power conference school. Academically they pass the test. Utah State also fits well geographically and would give the Pac-12 a second school in the Beehive State. They would be a perfect travel partner for Utah and reignite one of the more underrated rivalries in college sports. Not a lot of people think of Utah and Utah State as rivals, but they are. They have a rich history of competing against each other and I think Utah fans would have fun seeing the Aggies on a more regular basis.
As far as what they’d bring athletically, Utah State is definitely best on the hardwood. They have frequently had the best men’s basketball program in Utah and could immediately be a top half team in the Pac-12. Football is where they lack and why they are not higher on my list. They occasionally are decent in football and have been trending upwards in that department in the last decade, but their overall body of work on the gridiron is not much to write home about. Still, I think their built in relationship with Utah and their men’s basketball prowess is enough of a reason to put them at number five on my list.
#6. Colorado State: The Rams have been solid in both football and men’s basketball while also playing in the same Denver media market as Colorado. They’re also a really solid research school. So they check off those boxes. While they are a step down from Colorado on paper, they could end up being as good of an athletic product if not better. Plus, they have a couple of programs on the women’s side that Colorado doesn’t have: swimming & diving and softball.
The only real downside of adding Colorado State is just the fact that it looks like you are downgrading your conference by replacing Colorado with Colorado State. But, if we are just talking about who is out there to add to the Pac-12, Colorado State is a very attractive option.
#7. Tulane: The Green Wave have emerged as a really strong football team and they’re also decent on the hardwood as well. They’re an excellent academic school and would give the Pac-12 access to SEC territory since they are in Louisiana. If the Pac-12 adds SMU, Tulane would be a logical school to also extend an invite to.
The only knock on Tulane is the fact that they are a bit out of the way, but they are close enough that the league could make it work. Given their recent success in football as well as their academic strength, Tulane could end up being a better fit than Colorado.
#8. Fresno State: Fresno State is located in the San Joaquin Valley, which is a major media market that the Pac-12 doesn’t have access to. They also have been good in the past in both football and men’s basketball, so they have more going for them than just their media market.
An added bonus for Fresno State is they have a built in rivalry with San Diego State and could be a nice travel partner for them. They would really help the conference re-establish their footing in California and add fans in a new market. It’s a bit of a sleepy addition, but there could be a lot of upside here.
#9. Air Force: Another Colorado team for the Pac-12 to consider is Air Force. The Falcons have a solid football tradition and compete in a wide variety of sports on top of hoops. They have baseball, they have women’s volleyball, and many other sports the Pac-12 likes to have. Their problem is they aren’t really good in anything besides football, but maybe that would change with a Pac-12 invite.
Academically, Air Force checks off a lot of boxes and is a very well-respected institution. They also have a nation-wide fanbase and fit well geographically, only an hour outside of Denver. Not a lot of people are talking about Air Force, but I think they could end up being a good fit for the conference.
#10. San Jose State: The final school I will include on my list is San Jose State. On the surface, the Spartans seem like a weak sauce addition but they actually have more value than meets the eye. For starters, San Jose is a top ten media market nationally. That’s a feather they have in their cap. Plus, San Jose State has a decent football tradition and as of late they’ve been getting better in men’s and women’s basketball, baseball, and other sports.
The Spartans have a built in rivalry with Stanford, San Diego State, and Fresno State while also having the potential to form one with Cal since they are both Bay Area public universities. The San Jose State Spartans might be the final team on my list, but there are some things they offer that should make the Pac-12 at least give them a look.
#11. Any other Mountain West school: As sort of a bonus to my list, any Mountain West school that didn’t make my list could end up being a decent fit as well. Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, Nevada, and Hawaii all should be considered. Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii would give the Pac-12 access to a completely new state that they aren’t already in. Wyoming and New Mexico both have solid men’s hoops traditions while Hawaii has shown more flashes of promise on the football side. Nevada and UNLV also would give the Pac-12 access to a new state while UNLV has the added bonus of being located in a major media market. Nevada has been the better athletic program over the years, but UNLV has more sizzle and excitement. Perhaps they could work as a pairing.
Parting thoughts: The Pac-12 has options. There are programs out there that could end up being better in the long-term than Colorado or at a minimum be just as a competitive. Aside from the COVID season, Colorado had only one winning season in the Pac-12. That’s it. The Pac-12 can easily find a program that is as competitive as that if not better. The key is keeping the other nine programs together, figuring out who they want to add, and securing a media rights deal. If they can do that, they could end up being ok and at least on par with the Big XII. It will be interesting to see how things shake out in the coming weeks.
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