What USC and UCLA leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten means for Stanford
On Thursday, Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News broke the news that USC and UCLA are planning to leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten as early as 2024. Subsequent reports have since come out confirming that the move is indeed happening.
The Pac-12 issued the following statement:
While we are extremely surprised and disappointed by the news coming out of UCLA and USC today, we have a long and storied history in athletics, academics, and leadership in supporting student-athletes that we’re confident will continue to thrive and grow into the future. The Pac-12 is home to many of the world’s best universities, athletic programs and alumni, representing one of the most dynamic regions in the United States. We’ve long been known as the Conference of Champions, and we’re unwavering in our commitment to extend that title. We will continue to develop new and innovative programs that directly benefit our member institutions, and we look forward to partnering with current and potential members to pioneer the future of college athletics together.
So, what does this all mean for the Pac-12? The honest answer is it’s anybody’s guess. The Pac-12 seemed caught off guard by this move and reportedly will have a meeting tonight to discuss what their next move should be. With USC and UCLA leaving, the conference is fighting for its life. Gasping for air as they appear to be drowning into irrelevancy.
If simple expansion and no merger with the Big XII is the first move they’ll look for, the Pac-12 has some obvious candidates that they can call up:
Boise State: The Broncos have long been a program that has had their name floated around as a possible Pac-12 candidate and this could be their chance to finally join. They have a great football tradition and a passionate fan base. They haven’t been nearly as relevant in men’s basketball, but they definitely are a legit football brand that is nothing to snicker at. The only problem with Boise State is they are a tiny school with only a $113.9M endowment size.
San Diego State: The Aztecs make sense because they could give the Pac-12 a Southern California presence again. They’ve had some really good basketball teams over the years and they have a solid football tradition as well. Of all the teams in the Mountain West, they probably have the best overall brand and while not having the same national brand as USC and UCLA, they can compete and soften the blow at least a bit. The only problem with San Diego State is they aren’t the biggest school. Their $353.3M endowment size is bigger than Boise State’s, but still not near the level of other Power-Five schools.
Utah State: The Aggies are a growing program that is steadily improving in football and men’s basketball. They are also in general a growing school and from an all-around academic perspective/endowment size ($510.4M) are in the neighborhood of Oregon State ($819.6M). They’re borderline P5 level if you look at their overall package. Plus, they have an in-state rivalry with Utah that could be fun to add more fuel to.
Colorado State: The Pac-12 likes to have in-state rivalries, so Colorado State could serve to Colorado what Utah State could serve to Utah. Colorado State is similar in size to Utah State, in the same neighborhood in terms of their endowment size ($558M). The Rams also have been pretty solid in football and basketball over the years and from a pure competitive standpoint would likely get even better by getting P5 status.
UNLV/Nevada: I’m going to address these two schools as a pair since if one were to join, the other would make sense to join as a travel partner. Starting right out with endowment sizes, both schools are on the smaller side. UNLV is at $305.8M while Nevada-Reno is at $367.5M. But, they both have legit athletic traditions like Boise State and San Diego State that can make up the difference.
UNLV is the more attractive school since they are in Las Vegas and that’s a big market for the Pac-12 to have. The Pac-12 already has dipped into that market with the Pac-12 basketball tournaments and Pac-12 championship football game. UNLV men’s basketball has been competitive over the years and if given the chance to compete in the Pac-12, they would likely become a real force in the league. As for football, UNLV hasn’t been as good, but if given the resources of a major conference, it stands to reason that they could really improve and become a serious program.
As for Nevada-Reno, they have actually had more recent success in basketball and they have a strong fan base. Football also has been competitive at times. UNLV is the more attractive program, but Nevada-Reno brings something to the table as well. Adding these two schools as a package is a real option that the Pac-12 now has to strongly consider.
Hawaii: One wild card candidate for the Pac-12 to call up is Hawaii. Formally known as Hawai’i-Manoa. The Rainbow Warriors have had moments where they have been quite competitive in football, so there’s a real tradition there to build on. They’ve also been solid in men’s basketball. Hawaii is a fun place to visit and should draw good crowds for visiting opponents. Given their location, if given Pac-12 status, Hawaii could become a force in the conference and be a surprise boon to the league. The only concern is travel and the school is on the smaller side with a $327M endowment size. But travel shouldn’t be a deal breaker given the desperate state the Pac-12 now finds itself in.
Throw a TON of money at BYU: Another wild card move would be to just throw a TON of money at BYU to get them to cancel their move to the Big XII. BYU is a major brand ($1.96B endowment) with a classic rivalry with Utah. If BYU were to pull out of their Big XII move, it would likely cost them a lot of money and the Pac-12 would have to be willing to pay that money to facilitate the move, which is why it’s highly unlikely to happen. BYU seems perfectly content being in the Big XII and might even have fun watching Utah now be in a more unstable situation, but this is an option the Pac-12 should at least look at. Of all the schools mentioned, BYU would be the best addition to the Pac-12 by far. Would it be worth paying an arm and a leg to bring BYU in? At this point, it very well could be. Bringing in BYU, no matter how much it costs them, is the best move they could make to bring some stability to the conference.
Outside of the schools listed above, I don’t think there’s any other programs that make sense to add. Maybe Fresno State, but that’s it. If the Pac-12 goes the route of expansion and not joining forces with the Big XII in some sort of super league and is able to prevent the Big Ten from poaching off more of its members, they could still have a pretty fun and competitive league. I think all the programs I listed above have something to offer the Pac-12 that could make them at least somewhat relevant. If I’m the Pac-12, I would look to expand to at least 14 schools at this point. I would add Boise State and San Diego State for sure and then because of the Las Vegas market, I would swoop up UNLV and Nevada-Reno as well. And if they want to go to 16, Utah State and Colorado State make a lot of sense. Maybe you add Hawaii for football only.
In regard to what this all means for Stanford, it’s important to highlight what this means for the Pac-12. That needs to be understood first. Assuming the other Pac-12 schools stay in the league and don’t also bolt for the Big Ten or the Big XII, staying put in the Pac-12 with their Bay Area rival Cal makes sense for Stanford. It’s a safe move for now. If the Pac-12 expands to 14 or 16 as I suggested above, they would still be competing in a pretty competitive league.
Plus, they have a long standing tradition of playing USC every year in football, usually early on in the season like in the first or second week. That is normally a time when you’d play a non-conference opponent anyways. So, there’s reason to think they could keep that rivalry going.
If the Pac-12 were to go toes up and dissolve (which I don’t think will happen, but hey, anything is possible), Stanford would have no problem finding a home in the Big Ten or Big XII. They have a major national brand that would be very attractive to either of those leagues. Stanford arguably has the best combination of athletics and academics of any school in the country. Somebody will want them.
One wild card possibility would be for Stanford to join some super Ivy League that combines the traditional Ivy League schools with the usual “Ivy Plus” schools. The Ivy League consists of Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Dartmouth, Cornell, Pennsylvania, and Brown. The Ivy Plus schools consist of Stanford, MIT, University of Chicago, Duke, Northwestern, Caltech, Rice, Vanderbilt, John Hopkins, NYU, and WashU (Washington University in St. Louis).
All of the Ivy League schools are Division I-AA (FCS) in football and Division I in the major sports like men’s basketball, women’s basketball, etc. Of the Ivy Plus schools, in addition to Stanford, Duke, Northwestern, Rice, and Vanderbilt are all Division I-A (FBS). Some of the other Ivy Plus schools that are not Division I do have football programs, such as John Hopkins. So there could be some arrangement made where they all join forces in a super Ivy League and they all compete against each other in whatever sports they do have. John Hopkins for example has a football team and so they’d join football. MIT doesn’t have football, but they have basketball, so they’d compete in that. That sort of thing.
While it may be difficult to get all the Ivy Plus schools and the Ivy League schools to join forces, one thing those schools do have on their side is money. Lots of it. And on top of that, these schools all look out for one another. Vanderbilt has long been kind of a doormat of the SEC and could be persuaded to have a change of scenery; Northwestern has done more in the Big Ten just in football alone, but they’re always behind Ohio State and Michigan and several other programs; and then Duke being more of a basketball school anyways, could be persuaded on the grounds that conferences don’t matter as much in basketball. They have such a huge basketball program that in such an alignment, they would still be really competitive.
Another wild card move for Stanford to consider is to go independent in football like Notre Dame and play in the Pac-12 in every other sport. I don’t see that being a likely move, but Stanford prides themselves on having a strong national brand. It didn’t work out for BYU when they tried it, but BYU isn’t Stanford. Stanford is heads and shoulders above BYU from an academic standpoint and has a lot more resources and money to pull off a move to being independent. In truth, this is way more likely than a move to a super Ivy League.
At the end of the day, how this all unfolds for Stanford remains to be seen. I think the most likely move is they’ll stay put in the Pac-12, which will add on a few of the schools I mentioned at the top. But, given their unique standing as a Power-Five level school with academic prestige rivaled only by the likes of Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and MIT, Stanford has a lot of possible options and they shouldn’t be afraid to consider any of them.
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