Published Sep 14, 2016
The Breakdown: Stanford vs. USC
Andy Drukarev  •  CardinalSportsReport
Publisher

After a week two bye, Stanford will return to the gridiron on Saturday for a key early season showdown against rival USC.

How do the teams match up? Cardinal Sports Report publisher Andy Drukarev and Trojan Sports publisher Chris Swanson give their takes about some of the game's key questions.

Visit TrojanSports.com for more analysis and breaking news on USC athletics and recruiting | Follow Chris Swanson on Twitter

Visit CardinalSportsReport.com for more analysis and breaking news on Stanford athletics and recruiting | Follow Andy Drukarev on Twitter

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Stanford/USC will have success on offense when...  

STANFORD: Stanford owns the line of scrimmage, gets dynamic runners Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love in space and lets Ryan Burns work off a successful ground game. More specifically, Stanford needs its revamped offensive line - the Cardinal have three new starters (and one of the returners is playing a different position) to gel in a hurry. Stanford achieved this to a certain degree in the season-opener - Burns was spectacular in the first half as part of a very solid debut, and McCaffrey broke a few big runs. But Kansas State was able to load the box and slow McCaffrey in the latter 30 minutes. (Though it's worth noting that Stanford, which enjoyed a comfortable lead for most of the game, appeared to be intentionally conservative on offense. There was no need to push matters given the way the defense was playing.)

USC will be a more formidable test than Kansas State. The Trojans have better athletes across the board and should put up more points than the Wildcats against a Stanford defense that will probably be without one of its most important players in Harrison Phillips. As a result, the aforementioned keys to success - establish the ground game with McCaffrey and Bryce Love and get Burns rolling off that - should continue to hold true on Saturday. - Drukarev

USC: The offensive line gets better. The offensive line has been the problem for the Trojans’ offense so far this season. USC’s pass game hasn’t gotten off the ground outside of certain times against Utah State. The talented tailbacks haven’t had much success either. It all starts up front. If USC’s offensive line gets it together, USC can score on anyone, even a tough Stanford defense. But if USC’s offensive line doesn’t improve before this game, the Trojans aren’t going to have success on offense at all. - Swanson

Stanford/USC will have success on defense when...  

STANFORD: As mentioned, Stanford will probably not be at full strength on Saturday - defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is doubtful - 60/40 to sit out per David Shaw on Tuesday. (I personally feel Phillips is one of the three most important on Stanford's roster. Christian McCaffrey and Solomon Thomas the two others.) So the Cardinal will have its work cut out for it up front against a USC offensive line that has plenty of ability, even if it has not been completely dominant thus far this season. As a result, I think the Cardinal's plan of attack will need to be twofold. One: Defensive end Solomon Thomas and outside linebackers Peter Kalambayi, Joey Alfieri, Mike Tyler, Casey Toohill) need to generate consistent pressure on Max Browne. The group is certainly capable. Additionally, Stanford really needs its depth at defensive line to shine. They'll ask a lot of unproven players like Jordan Watkins, Eric Cotton, Dylan Jackson and Luke Kaumatule, and they'll need production from that group. - Drukarev

USC: The Trojans can get into third and long. A big part of that is limiting Christian McCaffrey. No one will stop McCaffrey completely, but he’s a big reason why Stanford beat USC twice last season, especially in the Pac-12 title game. USC has a talented defense that seems to match up just fine with the Stanford offense. If the Trojans can prevent McCaffrey from running wild they can get into some favorable down and distances. In a third and long situation, USC defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast likes to pressure and USC has the athletes to cause Stanford trouble in that situation. - Swanson

Both Stanford and USC have used multiple quarterbacks so far this year. What are the strengths and weaknesses of each, and how much of each should fans expect to see on Saturday?  

STANFORD: Unlike USC's two quarterbacks, who have very different skillsets, Ryan Burns and backup Keller Chryst are rather similar. They both have ideal size, strong arms and mobility. (Not 4.4 40 guys, but can definitely move a little bit.) They also have both been inconsistent at times over the course of their careers.

Burns was terrific in his first game as a starter earlier this month, completing his first 10 passes. It was the best of Burns - completing throws accurately into tight windows with a lot of zip. Early in his career at Stanford managing Stanford's pro-style offense was challenging for Burns, but there were no signs of that against Kansas State. He did miss a few makeable throws in the second half, though. Chryst, meanwhile, completed his only attempt against the Wildcats. David Shaw said that Chryst will play again on Saturday against the Trojans, but I'd expect Burns to get the vast majority of the snaps like he did in the season opener. - Drukarev

USC: Max Browne is a solid pocket quarterback. He understands the offense completely, he’ll make the right decision, stand up to pressure and make the throw you want. He’s tall, so he can see downfield and he has a solid arm so he can make most throws just fine. His athleticism is underrated. He can actually scramble and move a bit if needed.

Browne does have a couple of issues, though. While he has a good arm, good size, good athleticism, etc. he isn’t elite in any of those categories. He’s also more of a game managing type quarterback. He’ll be praised for doing everything right but not for doing anything exceptionally well. He also has a low release point on his ball that can take away part of his height advantage.But because of his experience and the fact that he did win the job, he should play the vast majority of the game. My estimation would be about 85-percent of it.

Sam Darnold is the younger guy. He doesn’t understand as much as Browne does and is a bit more limited in the offense. But he’s also more of a raw talent. He’s a better athlete than Browne, he moves better, he has a better arm. He can do potentially do more on the field than Browne but he just doesn’t know enough to make it all happen right now.So the expectation is for him to come in at times, maybe for specifically designed drives, and continue to have a slight role in the offense. - Swanson

Stanford and USC saw a lot of each other in 2015. How are the 2016 editions of the Cardinal/Trojans similar to last year, and how are they different?  

STANFORD: Stanford rarely changes a whole lot from year to year. They run a pro-style offense that relies heavily on a power run game and a 3-4 defense that has utilized a similar scheme since 2010.

But while it's still early in the season, there are a few differences with Stanford in 2016 that are already apparent.

Starting on the defensive side of the ball, Stanford is much deeper on its defensive line than it was in 2015. They rotated six players up front in the opener against Kansas State. Now, with Harrison Phillips likely (but not definitely) out against the Trojans, the Cardinal defensive front is a legitimate question. But expect to see a lot of different faces rotate in. A big difference at inside linebacker is the absence of a dominant player. Dating back to really Shayne Skov in 2010, Stanford has benefited from the presence of elite players at the position - Skov, A.J. Tarpley and Blake Martinez were all terrific talents. Stanford has some very gifted young inside linebackers who are playing this year, but none are at the level of Martinez in 2015 or Skov/Tarpley in their primes quite yet.

Stanford's offense is going to look pretty familiar - McCaffrey, McCaffrey and more McCaffrey - but Burns is a different player than Kevin Hogan. He has a stronger arm and looked terrific in Stanford's season opener, but it might be a lot to ask Burns to be quite as efficient as Hogan was against USC in 2015 - he was simply terrific, particularly in the September matchup. Additionally, the Cardinal offensive line has had to replace three starters in 2016. The unit should be strong again (though it still somewhat remains to be seen how long it will take to fully mesh), but any time you lose a player the caliber of Josh Garnett or Kyle Murphy, a team will struggle to find the same level of physical dominance. - Drukarev

USC: Offensively, USC is very similar to what it was in 2015. The Trojans return most of the coaching minds behind the 2015 offense. They also got back most of the name skill players and almost the entire offensive line. The biggest change was at quarterback, going from Cody Kessler to Max Browne (and at times Sam Darnold), but this offense hasn’t emphasized big passing numbers since Clay Helton took charge of the program.

Defensively, there are a lot of similarities as well in terms of personnel. The secondary is basically the same. The linebacking corps are missing Su’a Cravens, but Cam Smith was the big piece in the middle and he returned. The other losses from 2015 at linebacker have been accounted for nicely. The defensive line is the real question mark as USC lost five scholarship linemen from the 2015 season. Now it’s up to guys like Noah Jefferson and Utah transfer Stevie Tu’ikolovatu to lead the way. It’s too early to tell how that’s going.

Outside of the defensive line, the biggest changes at USC have been coaching. USC is now running Clancy Pendergast’s 5-2 scheme again, the defense they ran in 2013.Besides coaching, the major notable changes at USC, have to be going from Kessler to Browne at quarterback, losing Cravens at outside linebacker and the adding Tu’ikolovatu to the defensive line. - Swanson

What notable injuries are USC/Stanford working through, and how will they impact Saturday's game?

STANFORD: Stanford is relatively healthy, but the status of two of their most important players is somewhat in doubt. Running back Bryce Love will likely return from a lower-body injury that sidelined him for around a month - David Shaw estimated his return at 90 percent. Though I guess it somewhat remains to be seen whether Love has all of his explosiveness and speed back given his extended absence. A healthy Love would give Stanford a key weapon and help expand their options on offense. Defensive lineman Harrison Phillips, on the other hand, should probably be characterized as doubtful. Shaw said it's 60/40 against him playing, but a final determination won't be made until later this week. His absence would really hurt the Cardinal as they try to slow USC's running attack and generate pressure on the quarterback. - Drukarev

USC: Toa Lobendahn is out for the season with a knee. Ronald Jones missed the second half of the Utah State game because of a rib contusion. He’s expected to play on Saturday. John Plattenburg has been out since August 8. Khaliel Rogers missed Utah State because of a hamstring. Noah Jefferson has a sprained shoulder. Don Hill and Osa Masina have now been suspended for the season. Marvell Tell is going through concussion protocol. - Swanson

What's your score prediction and why? 

STANFORD: Assuming Phillips will not play but Love will, I'll go Stanford 26-21 here.

Even though it did struggle at times late against Alabama, USC's defense has some very talented players and has proven its effectiveness both early against the Crimson Tide and against Utah State. I think Stanford may well have a tough time moving the ball against USC (particularly if Noah Jefferson is healthy). The defense is loaded with four and five-star prospects and is coordinated by an excellent OC in Clancy Pendergrast.

On the other side of the ball, Stanford's defense should be quite solid this year, but the likely absence of Phillips will challenge their ability to stop the run in a major way. I think the Trojans could certainly establish the ground game, but the Cardinal pass rush and secondary may have some success limiting USC through the air, even though USC of course has some very talented wideouts. So I'll go with Stanford in a close matchup of two very talented teams. - Drukarev

USC: If USC’s offensive line dramatically improves before this game, this will be a very close, low scoring contest. I just don’t expect that to happen. I think the Trojan offense will have trouble moving the ball at all. That should set Stanford up with favorable field position again and again. This will eventually hurt a strong USC defense and a good effort by that group. I expect this game to get ugly because I expect USC’s offense to waste a valiant effort from the Trojan defense. 38-13 Stanford. - Swanson