On Saturday at 4:30 PM PT on ESPNU and KNBR Radio, Stanford football will take on the Washington State Cougars up in Pullman, Washington. Stanford comes in at 3-3 overall and 2-2 in the Pac-12 while Washington State comes in at 3-3 overall and 2-2 in the Pac-12 as well.
Last time out: Last week, Stanford lost to #22/25 Arizona State 28-10 in Tempe. Stanford wide receiver Elijah Higgins had 7 receptions for 110 yards and 1 touchdown.
RECAP: Stanford falls to ASU in Tempe
Key Stanford notes: Kicker Josh Karty is probable, safety Noah Williams is questionable, wide receiver Bryce Farrell and cornerback Zahran Manley are questionable, but there was real hope on Tuesday that they’d be able to play. As a matter of fact, on Wednesday, David Shaw made it pretty clear that Farrell will be back.
Fullback Jay Symonds, tight end/defensive end Tucker Fisk, and wide receiver John Humphreys are all out. Running back E.J. Smith and wide receiver Michael Wilson are also out, but there is hope they’ll be back for the Washington game after the bye.
On Washington State: After starting 1-3, the Cougars have won two games in row at Cal and vs. Oregon State. They’re starting to gain some momentum and like Stanford, look at the Pac-12 North as a wide open race that they can win. They don’t put up a ton of points averaging 24.3 points per game, but on the flip side their opponents only average 24.8 points per game, which isn’t a whole lot. Their offensive points production is 94th in the nation, but their defensive points allowed per game ranks them 69th.
Sophomore quarterback Jayden de Laura has thrown for 1193 yards on the year and has 12 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions for a 146.4 passer rating. Senior running back Max Borghi has rushed for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns while having 55 receiving yards. Senior running back Deon McIntosh has rushed for 269 yards and 1 touchdown while also having 81 receiving yards including one touchdown reception. Borghi has 65 rushing attempts while McIntosh has 55, so the load slightly favors Borghi.
Senior wide receiver Travell Harris has 39 receptions for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns while senior wide receiver Calvin Jackson, Jr. has 35 receptions for 404 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those are the top two receivers on this Cougars team, doing a nice job of taking the pressure off the running game.
Touching quickly on the Cougars defense, the big thing that stands out is that they have totaled 7 interceptions with seven different guys each getting 1 interception. They’ve also forced 11 fumbles and recovered 5. So, they do a nice job of forcing turnovers. That’s been key to their success all year.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing that they have to do is take care of the ball. Washington State is where they are because they’ve forced turnovers and taken advantage. If Stanford is able to not fumble and if Tanner McKee is able to not get picked off, that’ll go a long way towards getting the win up in Pullman.
Secondly, Stanford needs to get off to a good start and ideally strike first. Stanford is 3-0 this year when they lead at halftime and 0-3 when they trail at halftime. So, getting off to good starts has been crucial. If Stanford is the team up at halftime and in control, odds are good they win. If they’re down and Washington State is in control, odds are likely that Washington State wins this game. Getting off to a good start and heading into the tunnel with the momentum is huge for Stanford.
Third, Stanford needs to run the ball well. With so many passing targets injured and unavailable, it’s critical for guys like Austin Jones, Nathaniel Peat, and Casey Filkins to get rolling and move the chains. If the ground game is sound for Stanford, they should be in a good spot. If Stanford is having to overly rely on McKee to move the sticks, they could be in for a long game just because a lot of his key targets won’t be available for him.
Conversely, Stanford needs to defend the run well. Washington State has the bodies to move the ball on the ground and they’ll look to do it against a Stanford defense that has been soft against the run at times. Stanford has to defend the run well from the jump.
Lastly, Stanford has to be the team that makes bigger plays. This sounds obvious, but it’s really true. If Stanford is the team ripping off the 80+ yard touchdown runs, getting the big interceptions, being the team that scores on defense, and has more of those kinds of plays, they’ll win. If it’s the other way around expect a Wazzu victory.
Prediction: This game is going to be tough because Washington State is at home and Stanford is without some key players. That said, I have a hard time seeing Stanford lose two games in a row here. After every loss, they’ve found a way to bounce back and they know they have to win this one. I got Stanford pulling out a nail biting victory: 27-24.
