Published Jul 18, 2016
Stanford early look: Kansas State
Andy Drukarev  •  CardinalSportsReport
Publisher

Stanford will open its 2016 season in 47 days against a program that has quietly been one of the Big 12's most consistent over the past half decade. The Wildcats have participated in six straight bowl games, dating back to the 2010 season. Not coincidentally, their run of success has coincided with Bill Snyder's return to Manhattan to assume control of the Kansas State program for a second stint.

That said, the Wildcats had their worst season in Snyder's second go-round last year, losing seven games.

Are they expected to rebound in 2016? Cardinal Sports Report caught up wit the publisher of GoPowercat.com, the Kansas State affiliate on the Rivals.com network, to find out.

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Kansas State finished with its first losing record since 2008 last season (albeit with the seventh loss in a bowl game). What was the reason(s) for the Wildcats' struggles?  

Tim Fitzgerald: Last season was viewed as a transition season heading into 2015, but there was no way to foresee what would take place from the very start. Gone was the passing combination of receiver Tyler Lockett and quarterback Jake Waters, plus four-year starting center B.J. Finney also departed. There was a new freshman center, a new sophomore quarterback and no one in sight to replace Lockett’s explosive playmaking. Meanwhile, the defense was rebuilding its secondary, but at least had back skilled senior safety Dante Barnett.

Then came the first game of the season. On the season’s first offensive play against South Dakota, new QB Jesse Ertz saw his right knee buckle while being tackled. He stayed in one more play, then left the field for good, lost for the season. (The next game, promising true freshman quarterback Alex Delton, who the coaches were grooming to take over, was also lost for the season with a knee injury.)

On the defensive side of the ball, Barnett left the field later in the first half holding a shoulder. What seemed to be something minor turned out to also be a season-ending injury.

In the first half of the season, the team essentially lost its quarterbacks on both sides of the ball. That meant new players were suddenly not only thrust into playing time, but leadership roles.

K-State went 3-0 in its non-conference, narrowly beating Louisiana Tech in overtime, but the Wildcats faced a daunting start to their Big 12 schedule. They lost by two at Oklahoma State, then came home and led TCU for much of the game before losing 52-45 on two late touchdowns.

Following a blowout loss against Oklahoma, the Cats lost in a driving rain at Texas, again narrowly lost to a talented team with a seven-point decision to Baylor and then were tagged in a shootout at Texas Tech. Throughout the stretch, the injuries continued to mount.

It was six straight losses, but the Wildcats rebounded to miraculously rally in the closing minutes against Iowa State, then dominated Kansas and then held off a good team from West Virginia.

Three wins. Six losses. Three wins.

K-State ended the year starting a converted receiver at quarterback in being manhandled by Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl. The entire season was simply bizarre.

Generally speaking, what's the outlook for the 2016 Kansas State squad? What is a realistic win/loss record projection, and what are some of the key storylines this season?  

Fitzgerald: Well, thanks to those injuries, K-State is again likely to start Ertz at quarterback with little game experience, but the Cats do have back Barnett thanks to a medical redshirt. The defense should be stout and the offense may finally have some more explosive weapons, but now that new freshman center in 2015 is the lone returning starting offensive lineman in 2016.

On paper, this may be another six-win team, but one always has to calculate in the Bill Snyder factor, so many are optimistic that K-State can get to eight victories. I believe seven wins would be an accomplishment.

Neither of Kansas State's primary quarterbacks cracked the 50 percent completion mark last year. What's the outlook at the position this season? Who are the contenders for the starting job, and what's expected of them?  

Fitzgerald: After Jesse Ertz was injured, junior Joe Hubener came on in relief. He was known as a big running quarterback with a powerful, but inaccurate arm. He turned out to be that, although he had his moments. The coaches were banking on Delton learning the playbook in the non-conference slate and being prepared to challenge for playing time as the season progressed, but then the freshman was also injured. (A fourth scholarship QB, who was a junior college transfer, struggle to learn Snyder’s system and then fell ill during the season and never played.)

That left Kody Cook, a former walk-on quarterback-turned-receiver as the only real backup to Hubener, and he nearly engineered a stunning victory at Oklahoma State when Hubener was also injured. (Cook was technically the fifth-string QB at season’s start.) The problem was that Cook was the best possession receiver on a team that was already short of receiver talent.

Expect to see Ertz on September 2, with either Delton or Hubener backing him up.

What are the expected strengths of the 2016 Kansas State team?

Fitzgerald: With Barnett returning at safety, this defense just became a whole lot smarter, and the team is very deep at linebacker, although those players are designed for Big 12 passing games. Jordan Willis is a skilled pass rush threat and nose tackle Will Geary, who was suspended for the bowl game, almost always demands double teams. Four defensive players just earned all-Big 12 preseason honors.

Offensively, the team is rebuilding but the coaches have always raved about Ertz and the receiver position was upgraded through recruiting and gaining players who redshirted.

And don’t forget that special teams are typically a strength of Snyder teams, but the coaches are looking for a new kickoff return specialist after Lockett and Morgan Burns were back-to-back All-Americans in the role.

What are the areas of concern?  

Fitzgerald: The offensive line is a complete rebuild at guard and tackle. In fact, K-State will likely start a redshirt freshman (Scott Frantz) at left tackle. That rarely goes well in the beginning.

Finally, and I'm sure you've been asked this many times over the years, but what is the Bill Snyder Secret Sauce? What are the key factors in Kansas State's success under his leadership?  

Fitzgerald: It’s hard to explain what the man does off the field in preparing a team, because it’s almost miraculous at times, but during games, Bill Snyder is a chess-master. In six of K-State’s seven losses last season, the Wildcats were either ahead or within one score in the fourth quarter despite usually being outmanned by the likes of TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State.

Snyder is conservative when he needs to be and can open up the offense when called upon. His teams are typically fundamentally strong — a real concern opening on the road to a team of Stanford’s caliber — and almost always win special teams, sometimes so dramatically that it’s the clear difference in the outcome.

It’s hard to blow out a Snyder team, but it happens. Then again, UCLA led K-State 31-6 at halftime of the 2014 Alamo Bowl but then held on for dear life in the fourth quarter to win 40-35. Bill Snyder almost always gives his coaches and players a chance to win in the fourth quarter.

Bottom line, when he has equal or lesser talent, Snyder almost always wins. When he’s outmanned, it’s often a 50-50 affair. Winning a season-opening game at Stanford with a rebuilt offense is a lot to ask, however.