On Friday, December 13th at 7:00 PM PT on ACCNX, Stanford women’s basketball will head to Berkeley to battle the California Golden Bears in the first of two “Battle of the Bay” games. This will be the opening ACC game for both teams. Stanford comes in at 7-2 overall with 18 points in the AP Top 25 poll while Cal comes in at 9-1 overall with 23 points in the AP Top 25 Poll.

Last time out: Stanford had a painful 94-88 overtime loss at No. 5 LSU on Thursday, December 5th. Stanford did not give up the lead until after the game went into overtime.

RECAP: Stanford WBB loses heartbreaker at No. 5 LSU

On Cal: The Golden Bears are off to the strongest start they’ve had during the Charmin Smith era. Smith is in her 6th season as head coach at Cal and her 5th season was the first season they had a winning record under her leadership, so things are certainly trending in the right direction.

The Bears’ top win is over Alabama at home, knocking the Crimson Tide out of the AP Top 25 as a result. That was the same day that Stanford played at LSU. They also have a neutral court win over Arizona, a road win at Gonzaga, and a home win over Auburn. Their other wins are over cupcake programs, most recently at Pacific on Saturday. The lone loss for the Bears is against Michigan State on a neutral court. Both of their neutral court games were played in Palm Springs as part of the Acrisure Classic, the same event that Stanford men’s basketball played against Grand Canyon.

The Bears are led by sophomore guard Lulu Twidale, who is averaging 16.1 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field, 42.5% shooting from 3-point range, and 85.7% shooting from the foul line. Graduate student guard Ioanna Krimili is the number two scorer for the Bears averaging 15.9 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field, 42.5% shooting from 3-point range, and 81.4% shooting from the foul line.

The other three members of the Cal starting five Marta Suarez (12.6 points & 5.8 rebounds), Kayla Williams (11.2 points), and Ugonne (Michelle) Onyiah (11.0 points & 7.9 rebounds) are also scoring in double figures. Nobody coming off the bench is scoring above 4.0 points per game, so there’s a sharp drop off from the starting five to the rest of the team.

As a team, the Bears are scoring 78.4 points per game on 46.0% shooting from the field, 36.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.1% shooting from the foul line. They average 39.5 rebounds, 15.4 assists, 9.6 steals, 4.4 blocks, and 18.6 turnovers per game. They also have a +4.0 rebound margin per game and a -0.1 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 60.5 points per game on 36.6% shooting from the field, 31.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 65.1% shooting from the foul line.

Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is dominate the glass. Stanford averages a + 10.0 rebound margin per game with Nunu Agara averaging 18.8 points and 7.0 rebounds. If Stanford keeps up the intensity on the glass, they should be in a good position to win this game.

The second thing Stanford needs to do is feed Agara inside. She’s the best player on this Stanford team and with it sometimes being tougher to find your 3-point shot on the road, going inside is always a good move provided you can stretch the floor some. If Agara can have a 20 point and 10 rebound kind of performance, I like Stanford’s chances to win.

Finally, Stanford needs to win the turnover battle. In rivalry games, ball security is always crucial. If Stanford is taking better care of the ball than Cal, that should give them an edge to win this game. That’s a weakness of Cal’s that Stanford should look to exploit.

Prediction: Given that Cal is at home and they are receiving more votes than Stanford in the AP Top 25 Poll, Cal on paper should be favored to win this game. If I was setting a betting line for this game, I would say Cal by 2.0. That said, I expect Stanford to cover the spread and win by a final score of 79-78. This one should live up to its “Battle of the Bay” nickname.

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