Today at 2:30 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks and KNBR radio, Stanford football will take on the Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis. Stanford comes in at 3-6 overall and 2-5 in the Pac-12 while Oregon State comes in at 5-4 overall and 3-3 in the Pac-12.
Stanford has won 11 straight games against Oregon State while both teams come in riding losing streaks. Stanford has lost four games in a row while Oregon State has lost two games in a row. Some streaks will get extended and others will be snapped. The question of course is which ones? One other interesting streak is that this is the third straight year these teams have faced in Corvallis.
Last time out: Last week, Stanford got rocked like Amadeus against Utah, losing 52-7. It was one-way traffic all night for the Utes.
RECAP: Stanford gets smoked by Utah
Key Stanford notes: Wide receivers Elijah Higgins and John Humphreys are both questionable; safety Kendall Williamson is questionable as is running back
E.J. Smith. Quarterback Tanner McKee is questionable/doubtful. Unlikely he plays, though David Shaw did say he’s made a bit of a turn and is progressing. If McKee is out, freshman Ari Patu will get the start while Isaiah Sanders will continue to get to do his thing as a wildcat option at quarterback. Cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly, running back Casey Filkins, and linebacker Stephen Herron are out.
On Oregon State: The Beavers are led by sophomore quarterback Chance Nolan, who has thrown for 1806 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 9 games for a 153.6 rating. He’s had a very nice year and is a major reason for why the Beavers have had as much success as they’ve had.
Junior running back B.J. Baylor has had a breakout season, rushing for 890 yards on 144 attempts to go along with 11 touchdowns. He’s been a force in the backfield all season long. Senior wide receiver Trevon Bradford is probable for this game per BeaversEdge.com and he’s had a really nice season as well: 36 receptions for 475 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also has one rushing touchdown.
As a team, the Beavers rank 28th in the nation in points per game (33.9) and 76th in points allowed per game (27.7). So, they’re much more of an offensive team, than a defensive team. If you can stop their offense with any success, they become very vulnerable.
Keys to the game: If Stanford is going to win this game, the first thing they have to do is stop the run. They will not win if Oregon State runs all over them like Utah did. B.J. Baylor will get fed the ball early and often and will test Stanford’s run defense early. If Stanford can’t slow him down, it’s ball game.
Secondly, Stanford needs to establish some sort of offensive flow. If it is Ari Patu out there instead of Tanner McKee, then Patu is going to have to find ways to move the chains and not rely solely on the running game. Last week, Stanford’s offense got in a real rut and they struggled to move the chains all night. If that happens again, Oregon State will win with ease.
Finally, Stanford’s special teams need to be better. They need to make their field goals, get good returns when they get the ball, prevent Oregon State from doing the same, have sound punts, and just all-around do the little things that matter on the special teams end. Special teams haven’t been where they need to be and if Stanford is going to pull this game out, the special teams will have to do their part for sure.
Prediction: If I didn’t know Stanford has beaten Oregon State 11 times in a row, I would easily pick the Beavers and not give this second thought. But sometimes a team has a team’s number for some unquantified reason. To quote Peter Venkman (Bill Murray) from Ghostbusters for a second straight week: “Call it fate. Call it luck. Call it karma.” Stanford for whatever reason has been able to beat Oregon State no matter the circumstances and they are due for a win here having come close against Washington State and Washington.
I don’t think they’ll lose the rest of their games this year. Plus, if McKee can’t go, they’ll go with Patu at quarterback, somebody new and fresh. So, I’m going out on a limb and say history repeats itself and Stanford finds a way to win this game, but it’s going to be close: 30-28.
