On Saturday at 9:00 AM PST on FS1, Stanford football will kick off their season against Kansas State at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, which is the home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys. All State is sponsoring the game, dubbing it the “All State Kickoff Classic.” This will be the first of three games Stanford plays away from home before their home opener on September 25 against UCLA.
On Stanford: Stanford comes into the season picked to finish 4th in the Pac-12 North, just three voting points back of Cal. Conventional wisdom states that Stanford will win somewhere between five and seven games, though the team is confident that they can greatly exceed those expectations. Last season, Stanford went 4-2 overall and 4-2 in the Pac-12. They averaged 29.3 points per game (56th of 128) and allowed 31.7 points per game (79th of 128).
The Cardinal have a backfield led by juniors Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat. The two roommates are hoping to form a dynamic duo and build on the success they had last year. Jones is looking to be one of the top running backs in the Pac-12 and also the country while Peat is looking to show that he too belongs in the conversation. In last year’s six-game abbreviated season, Jones rushed for a total of 550 yards and 9 touchdowns and 706 yards from scrimmage, which includes receiving yards. Peat rushed for 204 yards and 1 touchdown on just 29 carries.
Fullback Houston Heimuli also projects to play a major role both in terms of creating holes for the running backs and also doing whatever else is asked of him. Heimuli was named a team captain earlier in fall camp.
The receiving core is expected to be without their top returning wide receiver Michael Wilson, who is recovering from injury. The hope is that he’ll be back sometime before the midseason according to head coach David Shaw. With Wilson out, receivers
Elijah Higgins, Brycen Tremayne, and John Humphreys will need to step up. The tight end group led by Benjamin Yurosek, Tucker Fisk, Lukas Ungar, and Bradley Archer will need to play a significant role in the offense as well. Both as receivers and blockers. Yurosek in particular has garnered a lot of praise in fall camp.
On the offensive line, tackles Walter Rouse and Myles Hinton are the top players. Both guys project to give the quarterbacks plenty of time to throw and also create opportunities for the running backs to make big plays. Drake Nugent will get the start at center while Barrett Miller and Branson Bragg will start at left and right guard.
Last but certainly not least is quarterback. That’s been the elephant in the room all camp. David Shaw hasn’t liked to reveal too much about how he’s feeling on that beyond saying that both senior Jack West and sophomore Tanner McKee are still competing for the starting job. On Friday morning, we got a little bit better picture of how things will look as Shaw announced that West will get the start while McKee will also get minutes.
Switching gears to the defense, Thomas Booker is projected to be the star of the Cardinal’s front seven. He’s a versatile defensive lineman that is hoping to make a Reggie White type of impact. If Stanford is going to have the defense that they are hoping to have, he’ll need to have a monster year. Dayln Wade-Perry at defensive tackle hopes to give Booker the help he needs inside.
The linebacker core being healthy is another major storyline for Stanford. Ricky Miezan, Levani Damuni, and Jacob Mangum-Farrar are looking to wreak havoc as inside linebackers while Jordan Fox, Stephen Herron, and Gabe Reid look to do damage on the outside. Depth and strength in numbers is the name of the game here for the linebackers. So we should see a lot of different bodies rotate in and out of the Cardinal linebacker room.
In the secondary, Kyu Blu Kelly is looking to prove that he’s one of the elite cornerbacks in the country with Ethan Bonner opposite of him. Noah Williams will be getting the start at free safety while Kendall Williamson will get the start at strong safety. The secondary group as a whole is hoping to make waves this year and build on Stanford’s tradition of having strong secondaries.
Note: Cornerback Salim Turner-Muhammad and safety Jonathan McGill are both out. They’re expected to miss the vast majority of the season with a late return possible.
As for special teams, Joshua Karty has won the starting kicking position outright with Ryan Sanborn winning the punting position. Running backs Nathaniel Peat and Casey Filkins will be returning kicks while Bryce Farrell or Casey Filkins will handle punt return duties.
The wild card for Stanford this year is definitely Tucker Fisk. He’ll be playing both tight end and on the defensive line this year, most likely at defensive end. NFL scouts have been in to see Fisk and evaluate him at both spots. If Fisk is able to be effective on both offense and defense, that will give Stanford an added dimension that most teams do not have.
On Kansas State: The Wildcats come into the season picked 7th in the Big XII, ahead of Baylor and behind West Virginia. They’re not projected to be terrible, but they’re also not projected to be particularly good, either. Kansas State is at a bit of an advantage with the game being played in Arlington. They’re hoping that the vast majority of fans in attendance will be donning the color purple as Kansas is closer to Texas than California is.
Last season, Kansas State went 4-6 overall and 4-5 in the Big XII. They averaged 26.6 points per game (81st out of 128) and allowed 32.2 points per game (84th of 128).
The Wildcats project to have 6th year quarterback Skylar Thompson manning the ship. He missed the vast bulk of last season due to injury, but in the three games he played, he threw for 626 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. That was good for a stellar 165.3 passer rating. Sophomore quarterback Will Howard did a serviceable job in his absence, throwing for 1178 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in nine games. He finished the year with a 116.3 passer rating.
Sophomore running back Deuce Vaughn projects to have another big year. He rushed for 642 yards and 7 touchdowns last year and totaled 434 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns. That was good for 1076 total yards and 9 touchdowns.
As far as receivers go, Malik Knowles and Chabastin Taylor should both play a prominent role on offense given their production last year. Knowles had 304 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns while Taylor had 313 yards from scrimmage to go along with 1 touchdown. Tight end Sammy Wheeler projects to play a major role as well, totaling 134 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on just 7 receptions last year. One would figure he’ll see more touches with Briley Moore now in the NFL.
As for the Wildcats’ defense, senior defensive back Jahron McPherson led the team in solo (36) and total tackles (54) last year. He also had 3.5 tackles for a loss, 1.0 sacks, and 2 interceptions. He’s a major playmaker for them and will look to make things tough on Stanford’s offense.
Linebacker Cody Fletcher is back and eager to do some damage. He was 3rd on the team in total tackles last year (43) to go along with 3.5 tackles for a loss and 1.5 sacks. He’s definitely someone Stanford will need to account for if they want their running backs to have a big game.
Defensive end Khalid Duke and defensive tackle Eli Huggins didn’t have explosive seasons last year, but they’ll be back anchoring the defensive line. The emergence of sophomore defensive end Felix Anudike into the starting lineup is interesting considering he had just three tackles and one sack last year.
Touching quickly on the kicking game, junior college transfer Taiten Winkel is listed as the starting place kicker. He did not see any action last year for Kansas State. How he handles kicking duties will definitely be important to watch.
Keys to the game: If Stanford is going to win this game, the first thing they’re going to need to do is control time of possession. If they have the ball longer and if the running game really gets going, they’ll be tough to stop. Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat will both need to do their part. Both in terms of moving the chains and also getting into the end zone in red zone situations. If Jones and Peat both do their thing, it’s hard seeing Stanford not walk out with a victory.
Secondly, Stanford needs to win the kicking battle. With a shaky quarterback situation, Stanford will likely have to settle for some field goals. If Joshua Karty can punch his kicks through and be a more reliable leg than Winkel, that will take a lot of pressure off the Stanford offense. Of course, you can’t keep settling for field goals. Stanford will need to find ways to reach the end zone, but that’s where the ground game really comes in.
Third, Stanford’s defense has to find ways to force some turnovers and get tackles for loss. A combination of a sack or two from Thomas Booker, an interception from Kyu Blu Kelly, and a couple of forced fumbles plus recovery from the defense as a whole, should do the trick. If Stanford’s defense comes up big and actually makes plays that changes possession, that’ll be huge.
As kind of a bonus key to the game, Tanner McKee and Jack West both need to take care of the ball. The running game is their friend and if they can just avoid some silly interceptions and/or fumbles, they should be fine.
Prediction: Most betting services seem to have Kansas State by 3.0. This makes sense when you look at the stats from last year and you also factor in Stanford’s uncertain quarterback situation. These really do appear to be pretty even teams with Kansas State’s better quarterback situation and also playing closer to home likely giving them a bit of an advantage.
However, Stanford is coming in with a lot of momentum from last year having won four straight games. All four of those wins were decided by five points or fewer and two of them were won by one point. So, Stanford knows how to win close games. I expect the running game to come through, for the defense to do their job, and for the kicking game to go Stanford’s way. Stanford 24 Kansas State 20 is my prediction.
