On Tuesday at 7:00 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks and Cardinal Sports Network radio, Stanford men’s basketball will welcome the California Golden Bears to Maples Pavilion. Stanford comes in at 12-7 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-12 while Cal comes in at 9-12 overall and 2-8 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Saturday, Stanford fell to #7 UCLA 66-43. Freshman point guard Isa Silva was the top scorer for Stanford with 8 points while senior guard Jules Bernard led UCLA with 16 points and 9 rebounds.
RECAP: Sluggish first half dooms Stanford MBB at #7 UCLA
On Cal: The Golden Bears are led by graduate transfer guard Jordan Shepherd, who has been a really nice addition to their team, averaging 14.3 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field, 31.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 79.3% shooting from the foul line. The other two Cal players scoring in double figures are senior forward Andre Kelly (13.4 points and 8.4 rebounds) and fifth year senior forward Grant Anticevich (10.4 points & 7.0 rebounds). When the three of them are all playing at their best, this Cal team can hang with good teams and put up a real fight. The problem with this Cal team is depth. After those three guys, there’s a real drop off to the number four scorer Jalen Celestine, a sophomore guard who is averaging 6.4 points per game.
The Bears have had a bit of an up and down season so far. Things got off to a rocky start with a double-digit home loss to UC San Diego before heading to The Sunshine State where they got waxed by Florida and lost a heart breaker to #21 Seton Hall. Following that shaky start, they started to find their groove a bit, notching a couple of Pac-12 wins over Oregon State and Arizona State as well as an impressive home win over Santa Clara, who beat Stanford earlier in the year.
Since then, the Bears have started to slide again, losing seven games in a row. However, in their most recent game, they fell to USC 79-72, giving the Trojans all they can handle. A Trojan team that is presently ranked #19 in the country. All of this is to say that while this Cal team is struggling, they’ve shown that they can hang with ranked opponents and be a much more difficult team to defeat than they appear to be.
As a team, the Bears average 64.9 points per game on 44.0% shooting from the field, 34.0% shooting from the 3-point line, and 72.0% shooting from the foul line. They average 35.0 rebounds, 10.7 assists, 4.6 steals, 2.4 blocks, and 11.3 turnovers per game. They also average a +1.9 rebound margin and a -1.7 turnover margin per game. Their opponents are averaging 65.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field, 30.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.6% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is dominate the glass. Stanford averages a +7.6 rebound margin per game and they need to keep that trend going against a Cal team that really thrives off the post play of Andre Kelly and his ability to bang down low. If Kelly isn’t having the kind of impact he’s used to having inside and Stanford is controlling the glass, the Cardinal should win this one.
Secondly, Stanford needs to defend the perimeter. Cal is actually a deceptively good 3-point shooting team. 34.0% isn’t a bad 3-point percentage, but looking at them, you may not know they have the 3-point fire power that they have. Grant Anticevich can get rolling from deep (Stanford should remember a huge corner three he hit his freshman year at Maples), Jordan Shepherd can heat up, Jalen Celestine can’t be left open, and then other guys who I haven’t mentioned like Makale Foreman, Joel Brown, Sam Alajiki, and Kuany Kuany all have the capability to make threes. Alajiki is shooting 57.7% from deep on 26 attempts on the year, so he’s a guy who Stanford needs to keep an eye on. If Cal is making threes and Stanford isn’t defending the perimeter well, this game could get a lot more interesting than Stanford wants it to get.
Finally, Stanford needs to not let Cal control the pace. One of the things Mark Fox likes his teams to do is play at a slow, plodding pace limiting the amount of possessions that each team gets. When Cal successfully plays this slow it down style, they can hang with teams that they otherwise should have no business hanging with. Stanford needs to play at a faster tempo, push the ball in transition, and make some plays in the open floor before Cal is able to set up their defense. If Stanford is the team dictating the tempo and not Cal, they should be fine.
Prediction: Stanford is in an interesting spot right now. They have the most Quad-1 wins of any team in the Pac-12 with four and yet their NET is lower than a few Pac-12 teams purely because they haven’t won the games that they’ve won by a lot. Arizona State and Oregon were wins they got at the last second, they had to pull a rabbit out of a hat to beat Dartmouth in overtime, both wins over Wyoming and Liberty in Hawaii were by three points, etc. They need some wins where they dominate and on paper this Cal team gives them a chance to pick up such a win. If Stanford can win this game comfortably by 10+ points, that might boost their NET by a little bit and also give them confidence to pick up dominating wins over the Washington schools before #7 UCLA comes to town.
That all said, this Cal team plays hard and they’re not going to give Stanford a freebie here. They’re going to make Stanford earn this win and if Stanford wins by 10+ points, it’ll be because they legitimately played a good game. Not because Cal handed it to them. On that note, I have Stanford winning by 8 points. 70-62. I’m confident that Stanford will win, but I don’t think it’ll be a dominant kind of win that they’re hoping to have.
Note: Stanford sophomore guard Noah Taitz did not play at UCLA as he continues to deal with a lower leg injury. His status for Tuesday against Cal will be something to watch for before tip-off. Also, Andre Kelly did not return to the game for Cal at USC on Saturday due to what looked like an ankle injury. So his status will be something to watch for as well.
To connect with CardinalSportsReport.com on Twitter, click here.
To connect with Ben Parker, click here.
