On Saturday at 6:30 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks and Cardinal Sports Network radio, Stanford men’s basketball will take on #7 UCLA at Pauley Pavilion. Stanford comes in at 12-6 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12 while UCLA comes in at 15-2 overall and 7-1 in the Pac-12.
Couple of quick injury notes: Stanford was without sophomore guard Noah Taitz (lower leg) on Thursday at USC, who has missed the last couple of games. It is not yet known if he’ll be a go. UCLA was without junior guard Johnny Juzang against Cal on Thursday due to COVID protocols and reportedly will be without him again tonight against Stanford.
Last time out: On Thursday, Stanford defeated #15 USC for the second time this season (64-61), proving themselves to be USC’s kryptonite. Jaiden Delaire led the way for Stanford with 14 points and 4 rebounds.
RECAP: Stanford MBB completes regular season sweep of #15 USC
On UCLA: UCLA’s lone Pac-12 loss is an 84-81 overtime loss at home to Oregon. Aside from that, they’ve been close to unbeatable in league play. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how their two upcoming games against USC go in the coming weeks.
The Bruins are led by Johnny Juzang (18.1 points and 4.9 rebounds), so having him out is a big blow to their team. With Juzang out, senior guard Jules Bernard (13.1 points & 4.9 rebounds), junior guard/forward Jaime Jaquez (12.9 points & 5.6 rebounds), and redshirt junior guard Tyger Campbell (11.2 points & 4.2 assists) will really need to step up. Redshirt senior forward Cody Riley (8.2 points) is another guy who could see increased production as well.
As a team, UCLA is averaging 78.7 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field, 37.1% shooting from 3-point range, and 71.5% shooting from the foul line. They average 37.5 rebounds, 14.3 assists, 7.0 steals, 4.1 blocks, and 9.6 turnovers per game. They also average a +4.5 rebound margin and a +4.2 turnover margin. Their opponents are averaging 65.2 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field, 32.7% shooting from 3-point range, and 70.9% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do to win this game is take care of the ball. Stanford averages a -3.4 turnover margin per game, which is actually improving from where it was earlier in the season. At USC, they turned the ball over just 9 times while USC had 14 turnovers. UCLA really thrives on winning the turnover battle and if Stanford can take that advantage away from them, that’ll be huge.
Secondly, Stanford needs to win the rebounding battle and get more points in the paint. This is an area where Stanford has a real chance to win. Stanford averages a +7.9 rebound margin per game. That usually translates to points in the paint. The Arizona loss was the major outlier there. If Stanford controls the glass and wins the battle in the paint, they should be in a good spot.
Lastly, Stanford just needs to make smart plays in crunch time should this game remain close. Stanford almost lost the USC game by Brandon Angel appearing to accidentally hit the x button on NBA2K and taking a rushed shot with a lot of time left on the shot clock. Stanford was up by five points with under two minutes to go. Luckily, Angel redeemed himself by hitting some clutch foul shots and Stanford walked out with the win, but mistakes like that will more often than not cost you the game. I almost had the same thing happen to me this morning on NBA2K playing with my stacked Utah Jazz team at Golden State, so I can relate (sort of). But I digress. The bottom line is if Stanford takes good shots down the stretch, makes the right reads, and just plays smart, they should give themselves a chance to win this game.
Prediction: This is a game that UCLA on paper should win, but without Johnny Juzang, things have gotten a lot more interesting. Especially with the way Stanford came into the Galen Center and knocked off USC. Getting a road sweep at the Los Angeles schools should put Stanford on the good side of the NCAA tournament bubble if the tournament were to start today. I’m not a bracketologist, but just using common sense here, any team that picks up their fifth Quad-1 win and a sweep of two ranked teams on the road at this point of the season should be considered a tournament team.
Going back to my prediction, I do think UCLA will find a way to win this game. I think they’ll be on heightened alert after the way Stanford beat USC and make sure to give an A+ effort in this one. UCLA 71 Stanford 66 is how I see this playing out. I think Stanford will actually play them tough and give themselves a chance to win. But I just have to pick UCLA here.
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