On Thursday at 8:00 PM PT on FS1 and Cardinal Sports Network radio, Stanford men’s basketball will take on #15 USC on the road at the Galen Center. Stanford comes in at 11-6 overall and 4-3 in the Pac-12 while USC comes in at 17-2 overall and 7-2 in the Pac-12.

Last time out: On Saturday, Stanford escaped with a 79-76 home victory over Arizona State. Brandon Angel hit the game winning foul shots and finished with 16 points along with Michael O’Connell.

RECAP: Stanford MBB hangs on to beat Arizona State

On USC: The Trojans are one of the top teams in the Pac-12. One of their two losses as everyone reading this should know came on the road at Stanford earlier this month (75-69). Their other loss came at home against Oregon (79-69). The loss to Stanford was their first loss of the season and they were ranked #5 at the time.

Since their loss to Oregon, they’re getting back on track, sweeping the mountain schools Utah and Colorado on the road before taking care of business at home against Arizona State on Monday. An Arizona State team who was without their head coach Bobby Hurley as he was serving a one game suspension for the way he conducted himself at Stanford.

Junior forward Isaiah Mobley (14.8 points & 8.8 rebounds), junior guard Boogie Ellis (12.8 points), redshirt senior forward Chevez Goodwin (12.8 points & 7.5 rebounds), and senior guard Drew Peterson (11.2 points & 5.8 rebounds) are the top players on this Trojans team. All four form a really good unit and know how to play well together.

As a team, USC is averaging 73.8 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field, 34.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 62.0% shooting from the foul line. They average 41.0 rebounds, 14.5 assists, 5.4 steals, 4.5 blocks, and 10.9 turnovers per game. They also average a +6.5 rebound margin and a -0.1 turnover margin. Their opponents average 64.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field, 32.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 70.0% shooting from the foul line.

Keys to the game: What I’m going to do in this section is list three things that Stanford did well against USC in their first meeting that they need to do if they want to pull the upset on the road. Having beaten them once, that game should serve as good of a road map to success as anything else.

When looking back on that game, the first thing that Stanford did well is they shot well from 3-point range. Stanford shot 10-24 (41.7%) from beyond the arc while USC shot 6-21 (28.6%). If Stanford can shoot at a similar clip while also holding USC to a similar percentage, they should be good. This is a game where Stanford would like to have Noah Taitz (lower leg) back. He had a solid outing against USC last time, scoring 6 points on 2-4 shooting from 3-point range.

The second thing Stanford did well in that first meeting with USC is take care of the ball, which has been an issue of theirs all season long. On the season, Stanford averages a -3.8 turnover margin per game. Against USC, their turnover margin was 0.0, which means they tied the Trojans in the turnover battle, each team turning the ball over 11 times. If Stanford can at least tie the turnover battle or keep within 1 turnover of USC, they should be in good shape.

Lastly, Stanford got a big outing from Harrison Ingram, who scored 21 points to go along with 10 rebounds. He’s kind of hit and miss in terms of his production, but if he can have a big performance again, that would really help Stanford. Even though one of their strengths is not overly relying on one player, Stanford really does play a lot better when Ingram is scoring and isn’t playing too passively.

Prediction: I had Stanford losing to USC at home the first time and, lo and behold, they won. So perhaps my prediction here can be treated as good news for Stanford. I do think USC being at home and having lost to Stanford before will come out fired up and motivated. Fans will be in attendance, granted at a limited capacity, but I just think USC will find a way to avoid losing to Stanford twice. Though I do think Stanford absolutely can win this game. USC 74 Stanford 68 is how I see this playing out.

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