On Saturday at 2:00 PM PT on ACC Network, Stanford men’s basketball will take on the SMU Mustangs at Maples Pavilion for Senior Day. Stanford comes in at 18-10 overall and 10-7 in the ACC while SMU comes in at 21-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC.
Last time out: Stanford defeated Boston College on Wednesday by a final score of 78-60. Stanford center Maxime Raynaud led the way with 23 points, 10 rebounds, and one block.
RECAP: Stanford MBB dominates Boston College
On SMU: The Mustangs have had a good season in their first year in the ACC and are squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble coming into this game after narrowly defeating Cal 81-77 on Wednesday in Berkeley despite not having their star guard Boopie Miller, who is averaging 13.4 points per game. According to multiple reports, Miller is also expected to miss Saturday’s game against Stanford, which would make it five straight games he’s missed due to a bruise on his left foot.
Without Miller, the Mustangs aren’t as good as they normally are. They’ve been 2-2 in his absence, defeating Notre Dame on the road in addition to Cal while dropping home games to Wake Forest and Clemson. With Miller projected to be out, the top scoring player for the Mustangs coming into this game is senior guard Chuck Harris, who is averaging 12.9 points per game 46.0% shooting from the field, 43.8% shooting from 3-point range, and 83.6% shooting from 3-point range.
The Mustangs also have four additional players scoring in double figures on average in senior forward Matt Cross (11.9 points & 8.1 rebounds), freshman center Samet Yigitoglu (10.8 points & 6.5 rebounds), junior guard B.J. Edwards (10.6 points), and senior guard Kario Oquendo (10.5 points).
As a team, SMU is averaging 82.1 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field, 38.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.9% shooting from the foul line. They average 39.7 rebounds, 16.3 assists, 7.8 steals, 3.8 blocks, and 12.0 turnovers per game. They also average a +6.5 rebound margin and a +0.1 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 71.9 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field, 32.8% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.5% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: The first thing Stanford needs to do is win the free throw battle. SMU shot 13-20 at the foul line against Cal on Wednesday while Cal shot 22-32. That’s a +9 advantage for Cal at the foul line and could have been even more had they shot a better percentage. If Stanford has a similar free throw gap and shoots better at the foul line, they should be in a good position to win this game.
The second Stanford needs to do is get a big game out of Maxime Raynaud. This will be his final game at Maples Pavilion as a senior and he’s going to want to go out on a high note. If he has a 20+ point and 10+ rebound kind of game, which is right around his average of 20.0 points and 11.0 rebounds per game, Stanford will be tough to stop.
Finally, Stanford needs to hold their own inside. SMU is a physical team that is used to crashing the glass with a lot of success. Cal did a solid job in this department on Wednesday, only losing the rebounding battle by two boards. If Stanford can come up even on the glass with SMU or be within a rebound or two if not win the rebounding battle, that would be huge.
Prediction: This is a toss up game. I could see this going either way. Stanford didn’t have Jaylen Blakes in Dallas and now it’s projected that SMU won’t have Boopie Miller at Stanford. I’ll give Stanford as slight of an edge as possible and pick them to win by a final score of 80-79.
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