On Saturday, at 11:15 AM PT on The CW, Stanford men’s basketball will take on the North Carolina Tarheels on the road. Stanford comes in at 11-6 overall and 3-3 in the ACC while North Carolina comes in at 12-6 overall and 5-1 in the ACC.
Last time out: On Wednesday, Stanford fell to Wake Forest by a final score of 80-67. Wake Forest guard Hunter Sallis took over for the Demon Deacons with 30 points.
RECAP: Stanford MBB falls to Wake Forest on the road
On North Carolina: Despite not being ranked or receiving votes in the AP Poll, the Tarheels are having a strong season overall. They’ve just not been able to win a couple of key games that could have them ranked. They lost to No. 9 Kansas by a three points on the road and No. 12 Michigan State by three points in overtime at Hawaii. Had they won both of those games, they’d likely be ranked right now. In league play, the Tarheels have wins over Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, SMU, NC State, and most recently Cal. Their lone ACC loss is to Louisville on the road.
The Tarheels are led by graduate student guard R.J. Davis (17.2 points & 4.0 rebounds) and freshman guard Ian Jackson (15.7 points). Both guys are doing a great job of putting the ball in the basket and being a solid one-two punch. Two additional players are also scoring in double figures: Junior guard Seth Trimble (12.9 points & 4.7 rebounds) and sophomore guard Elliot Cadeau (10.3 points & 5.9 assists).
As a team, the Tarheels average 82.9 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field, 32.8% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.6% shooting from the foul line. They average 38.5 rebounds, 14.2 assists, 6.7 steals, 4.2 blocks, and 11.3 turnovers. They also average a +2.1 rebound margin and a +0.2 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 76.1 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field, 31.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.0% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is hold their own on the glass. North Carolina out-rebounded Cal by +12 on Wednesday. That was a big part of the Tarheels’ success against the Golden Bears. If Stanford can at least be within three rebounds of North Carolina, that would help a lot. If it’s a +4 or greater rebound advantage for the Tarheels, it’ll be tough for them to win this game.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is get more help from their bench. Against Wake Forest, Stanford had just eight bench points. They need guys like Benny Gealer and Chisom Okpara to deliver off the bench. If Stanford can get 16+ points off the bench, double of what they had against Wake Forest, that would be huge.
Finally, Maxime Raynaud needs to have a big outing. If Stanford is to win games on the road, they need their star to ball out. If Raynaud scores 20+ points and gets 10+ rebounds, they’ll have a chance. If he has less than that, it’s hard to see where they get that extra production from even if the bench does its job.
Prediction: Oddly enough, I feel like Stanford has a chance to win this game. North Carolina has had some close wins lately, so there’s an opportunity here for the Cardinal. That said, I still have to pick the Tarheels to win. I’ll say 80-68 is the final score.
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