On Friday at 7:00 PM PT on FS1, Stanford men’s basketball will take on the California Golden Bears on the road in Berkeley. Stanford comes in at 10-8 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12 while Cal comes in at 7-12 overall and 3-5 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: Stanford is coming off a win against Washington on Saturday by a final score of 90-80. Spencer Jones had a career-high 30 points to lead the Cardinal.
RECAP: Spencer Jones’ big night powers Stanford MBB past Washington
On Cal: The Golden Bears got off to a bit of a rough start in non-conference play going 4-7. Their worst loss during that stretch was an 87-79 loss to Pacific at home. Pacific is yet to win a game in the WCC and nearly lost to Mississippi Valley State, winning by just three points in overtime. Mississippi Valley State hasn’t won a game all season and is 0-19.
But enough of the transitive property! Since non-conference play, Cal has found a new groove and is trending in an upwards direction. They picked up a solid 66-57 win at UCLA and followed that up with an 82-78 victory at home over Colorado. In their most recent outing, they defeated Washington State at home by a final score of 81-75 in overtime.
A major reason for Cal’s continued improvement is the fact that they have a good deal of talent. It’s just that it’s taken a bit of time for them to gel given all the new pieces they have. If they were to face Pacific at home today, I think they’d win by 15+ points. They’ve made that big of a jump.
The top player on this Golden Bears team is junior guard Jaylon Tyson, who is averaging 21.0 points per game to lead the Pac-12. Tyson is an explosive scorer that can score in a variety of ways, shooting 49.1% from the field, 37.2% from 3-point range, and 80.9% from the foul line. He also averages a team-high 3.1 assists per game and 7.2 rebounds per game, which is number two on the team. He’s also a decent pickpocket, averaging a team-high 1.4 steals per game.
The top two players around Tyson are graduate student power forward Fardaws Aimaq (15.4 points & 10.7 rebounds) and graduate student guard Jalen Cone (14.4 points). Both players are difficult to guard. Aimaq being a load inside and Cone being a really good 3-point threat. The Bears have other weapons as well like graduate student guard Keonte Kennedy (9.8 points & 5.3 rebound) and redshirt junior guard Jalen Celestine (7.3 points), so they’ve definitely got some depth.
As a team, Cal is averaging 75.6 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field, 34.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.1% shooting from the foul line. They average 37.4 rebounds, 12.3 assists, 5.7 steals, 2.8 blocks, and 11.7 turnovers per game. They also average a +3.1 rebound margin and a -1.1 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 76.6 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field, 36.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.1% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is contain Tyson. He’s the one who can especially go off for Cal. If he’s going to score 20 points, it needs to be an inefficient 20 points. They need to make him work for every bucket he gets. If he explodes for 25+ points, Cal should be in a good spot.
Secondly, Stanford center Maxime Raynaud needs to get the better of Fardaws Aimaq inside. Raynaud is averaging 14.1 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, which are numbers that are pretty close to what Aimaq is producing. Whichever big man has the better night will give their team an edge.
Finally, Stanford needs to win the 3-point battle. Stanford has guys who can shoot like Spencer Jones, Brandon Angel, Andrej Stojakovic, Michael Jones, and others. If Stanford shoots better from the perimeter than Cal, I like their chances to win.
Prediction: Given that Stanford has lost their last two road games in Berkeley, I gotta roll with Cal tonight. Especially since they are a better team than they’ve been the last couple of seasons. To give Stanford some hope, I will say that I think Stanford is a better team than the last couple of years as well. I just gotta give Cal the edge because they are at home and should have a good crowd out to cheer them on. As for a final score, give me 80-73. I think Stanford makes it a game, but Cal will still find a way to win rather comfortably in the end.
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