On Friday at 6:00 PM PT on ESPNU, Stanford men’s basketball will take on Cal in Berkeley. This will be the first of two games played between the two schools this season with the return game on The Farm happening on Saturday, January 28th at 7:00 PM PT on either ESPN2 or ESPNU. Stanford comes in at 5-9 overall and 0-4 in the Pac-12 while Cal comes in at 2-13 overall and 1-3 in the Pac-12.

Last time out: On New Year’s Eve, Stanford fell to Utah at home by a final score of 71-66. Stanford got down by double digits and nearly pulled off a last second comeback but wasn’t able to pull it out.

RECAP: Stanford MBB falls to Utah on New Year’s Eve

On Cal: It’s been a rough season for the Golden Bears. They’ve only won two games this year and have lost to schools who in better times they would beat like a gong. Schools like UC Davis, UC San Diego, Southern, Texas State, and Eastern Washington. They finally got their first win of the season by crushing UT Arlington 73-51 on December 21st and to their credit, they stunned Colorado in their most recent matchup, defeating the Buffaloes 80-76 in Berkeley. Like Stanford, Colorado almost pulled off the last second comeback, but the Bears fended them off as Joel Brown iced the game away at the foul line behind a career-high 21 points.

The Bears are led by junior guard Devin Askew, who is averaging 16.1 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field, 30.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 85.7% shooting from the foul line. The other Bear scoring in double figures on average is senior center Lars Thiemann, who is averaging 12.0 points and 6.3 rebounds per game on 54.8% shooting from the field and 73.3% shooting from the foul line. Thiemann averaged 4.7 points per game last season, making him a prime candidate for Pac-12 Most Improved Player of the Year. His growth from last season to this season has been fantastic.

The Bears also have grad transfer guard DeJuan Clayton playing for them after he missed the first 13 games of the season. He’s averaging 7.5 points per game, but figures to average more as the season goes on. And then, they have some decent complementary guys in senior point guard Joel Brown (7.4 points) as well as senior forward Kuany Kuany (8.7 points). As bad as their record has been, when at full strength, they have the ability to play a lot better than their record would suggest. Their win over Colorado reflects that.

As a team, the Bears average 59.5 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field, 27.5% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.4% shooting from the foul line. They average 31.9 rebounds, 9.4 assists, 4.5 steals, 3.6 blocks, and 14.3 turnovers per game. They also average a -1.0 rebounding margin and a -3.6 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 66.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field, 30.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.5% shooting from the foul line.

Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is play well in the first five minutes and not dig themselves into a hole. This happened in both games last week, especially against Utah and then last year at Cal, the reason Stanford got rocked like a hurricane is because they came out really flat, falling behind by 20+ points really fast. The first five minutes of this game are going to be really important and Stanford needs to make sure they match the energy that Cal will be bringing.

The second thing Stanford needs to do is dominate the paint. Stanford averages a +3.8 rebounding margin per game and for much of the season it was quite a bit higher than that. They have the potential to really punish teams inside with guys like Spencer Jones, Brandon Angel, James Keefe, Harrison Ingram, and Maxime Raynaud inside. If they win the battle in the paint, both in terms of scoring and rebounding, Stanford should be fine.

Finally, Stanford needs to win the 3-point battle. Stanford is shooting 30.7% from 3-point range while their opponents shoot 31.0% from 3-point range. They have shooters, but they haven’t been able to get it going from deep.

What really did Colorado in against Cal was how the 3-point battle went. Cal shot 7-13 (53.8%) from 3-point range while Colorado shot 7-26 (26.9%). They made the same number of threes, but Cal did so with a much more efficient percentage. Stanford shouldn’t be afraid to shoot threes against Cal, but they gotta make sure they knock them down. If Cal shoots a higher percentage from deep, they could steal this game.

Prediction: Stanford has done a really nice job beating bad teams this year. They beat Pacific by 10 points, they beat Cal Poly by 37 points, they beat Green Bay by 45 points, they beat Florida State by 10 points, and they beat Loyola Chicago by 13 points. Loyola Chicago and Pacific aren’t “bad” teams, but they’re not very good while the rest of the teams on that list are legitimately bad.

Cal is another bad team and is arguably the worst team Stanford has faced this year, so by that logic, Stanford could win this game by 20+ points and really blow the Bears out. That said, I think this Cal team is starting to find a bit of a groove by getting some guys back and then just in general, they have gotten the monkey off their back by winning a couple of games.

Cal is at home, they’ll be fired up to beat Stanford, and then Stanford hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire as of late, dropping last week’s games at home to Utah and Colorado. So, I’m picking Stanford to win, but I think it’s going to be a close game. 64-60 Stanford is how I see this one shaking out.

To connect with CardinalSportsReport.com on Facebook and Twitter, click here.

To connect with Ben Parker on Facebook and Twitter, click here.

Email: slamdunk406@yahoo.com

Join the conversation on CardinalSportsReport.com