On Saturday at 5:30 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks and Cardinal Sports Network radio, Stanford men’s basketball will take on their Bay Area rivals Cal on the road in Berkeley. Stanford comes in at 15-12 overall and 8-9 in the Pac-12 while Cal comes in at 11-17 overall and 4-13 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: Last Saturday, Stanford fell to Colorado 70-53 at home on Senior Day. Jaiden Delaire was the lone Cardinal in double figures with 12 points.
RECAP: Stanford MBB gets crushed by Colorado on Senior Day
On Cal: As disappointing of a weekend as Stanford had last week, Cal’s weekend wasn’t much better as they too got swept at home by Utah and Colorado. The Golden Bears looked like they might have turned the corner when they blew the doors off Oregon in Eugene, but that victory is looking more like a one-hit wonder than a sign of positive momentum for their program. Especially when you consider the fact that they squeaked past Oregon State earlier in that week.
Cal is still without senior forward Andre Kelly (13.4 points & 8.4 rebounds), who is done for the season due to an ankle injury. So they’re really reliant on grad transfer guard Jordan Shepherd (14.1 points) and 5th year forward Grant Anticevich (10.3 points) to carry the load for them. Outside of those two guys, they honestly don’t have a lot of talent. Though when those two guys are on, they can be very dangerous. Especially when they’re playing defense.
As a team, Cal is averaging 64.3 points per game on 43.0% shooting from the field, 32.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.0% shooting from the foul line. They average 34.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists, 4.8 steals, 2.5 blocks, and 11.4 turnovers per game. They also average a +1.4 rebound margin and a -1.6 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 66.0 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field, 30.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 76.0% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first key to the game is simply to keep Shepherd and Anticevich in check. Both guys have the ability to heat up and get going. Shepherd does more of his damage around the rim, slashing and attacking, while Anticevich prefers to do his damage from the perimeter as a streaky, but dangerous 3-point shooter. If those two guys have a big night, Cal has an excellent shot at winning this game. If they are off or even just below average, Cal will have a tough time generating enough offense to win.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is dominate the paint. Stanford averages a +7.6 rebound margin per game. They’re used to dominating the boards and that trend needs to continue into this game. If Stanford is having a big night inside, Cal will have a tough time winning.
Finally, Stanford needs to get quality play from their point guards. Sophomore Michael O’Connell has been nursing a sprained ankle and with him not at full strength last week, that really hurt Stanford. If he’s back to full strength and able to play at his peak level or close to it, he needs to have a big night. Not so much in terms of scoring, but in terms of creating for others and running the offense. Also, freshman Isa Silva needs to have a solid outing. Especially if O’Connell still isn’t where he wants to be. Bottom line is this: If O’Connell and Silva are effective, Stanford wins. If not, I like Cal’s chances.
Prediction: While Cal is a bad team objectively speaking, they do play hard and they are well-coached. Their big issue is talent, but they have the ability to make up for it by slowing down the pace, playing good defense, and frustrating their opponents. They’re a dangerous team in that vein. They’ll be at home, it’s a rivalry game, and they’ll also be parading around the Stanford Axe at the game to pump up their fans. This will not be an easy game for Stanford to win at all. The environment should favor Cal big time.
That said, I still have to roll with Stanford in this one because they are the better team and they have won three of their last four games in Berkeley, though those games have all been close. Stanford 64 Cal 62 is how I see this shaking out. Gonna be a nail biter, but the Cardinal will do just enough to hang on.
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