On Saturday at 5:00 PM PT on ACC Network, Stanford football will take on No. 21 SMU on The Farm. Stanford comes in at 2-4 overall and 1-2 in the ACC while SMU comes in at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in the ACC.
VIDEO: Stanford Football Weekly Press Conference | SMU
Last time out: Stanford is coming off a difficult 49-7 loss at No. 11 Notre Dame last week.
RECAP: Stanford gets blown out at No. 11 Notre Dame
On SMU: The Mustangs have had a strong season with their lone loss coming at home to BYU, who is currently ranked No. 13 in the nation and still undefeated after an amazing win over Oklahoma State on Friday. The Mustangs’ last game was on Saturday, October 5th at then-No. 22 Louisville. SMU won 34-27.
The Mustangs are led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has thrown for 1,014 yards in all six games to go along with six touchdown passes and one interception on a 66.7 completion percentage. Jennings’ top receiving target is junior tight end RJ Maryland, who has a team-high 22 receptions to go along with 304 yards and three touchdowns. Junior wide receiver Jordan Hudson also has three touchdowns to go along with 11 receptions and 129 receiving yards.
In the backfield, senior running back Brashard Smith is moving the chains, rushing for 561 yards and seven touchdowns for an average of 6.8 yards per carry. Kevin Jennings is also doing a nice job of moving the sticks with his legs as he has 262 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns for an average of 6.0 yards per carry.
On defense, graduate student linebacker Kobe Wilson leads the Mustangs in tackles with 41 total tackles (21 solo) to go along with two tackles for loss and two interceptions. The Mustangs also have former Stanford safety Jonathan McGill, who has 29 total tackles (17 solo), one tackle for loss, and one interception. The top ball hawk on the Mustangs is junior safety Ahmaad Moses, who has three interceptions to go along with his 28 total tackles (12 solo), one tackle for loss, and three interceptions. Leading the way in tackles for loss and sacks is senior defensive end Elijah Roberts, who has four tackles for loss and two sacks to go along with 18 total tackles (8 solo).
To touch quickly on special teams, Brashard Smith is the top kick returner with five returns for 128 yards while senior wide receiver Roderick Daniels Jr. has nine punt returns for 114 yards and one touchdown. Junior kicker Collin Rogers is 13-17 on his field goals with one miss inside 30 yards and three misses 50+ yards out. He’s 5-8 on kicks from 50+ yards out, so he’s got a good leg on him.
As a team, the Mustangs average 40.8 points per game while their opponents average 22.3 points per game. They have scored 55 points off turnovers while their opponents have scored seven points off turnovers. That’s a +48 advantage in the points off turnovers department. For the most part, they’ve played really well this season and been effective on both offense and defense. That’s why they are ranked.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they have to do is take care of the ball. I feel like a broken record writing this, but it’s really true. Stanford has had a difficult time taking care of the ball all season long and when you look at how successful SMU is at scoring off turnovers, this has to be key number one for Stanford. As a quick extension of this, Stanford also needs to find the end zone when they get in the red zone. They can’t settle for field goals.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is get wide receiver Elic Ayomanor going. He’s the best player on the team and the top home run hitter they have. In a game where they need to bounce back after two bad losses, they have to do whatever they can to get the ball in his hands and allow him to make plays.
Third, Stanford needs to execute in third down situations. Head coach Troy Taylor likes going for it on fourth down, which isn’t a bad thing, but ideally you aren’t putting yourselves in those kinds of situations to begin with. Third down conversions have to be strong for Stanford if they are to win.
Finally, Stanford needs to get more tackles for loss than SMU. If they win the tackles for loss battle, they could have a real chance to win this game. If SMU is instead leading in this category, it’s going to be hard to see Stanford winning this game.
Prediction: A Stanford victory wouldn’t surprise me. Nothing surprises me in college football. It’s totally possible Stanford comes out hungry, fired up, and plays inspired football and wins this game. That said, I have to pick SMU to win this game. SMU is simply the better team on paper. I’ll pick SMU to win by a final score of 38-24.
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