On Saturday at 12:30 PM PT on ACC Network, Stanford football will head to Berkeley to face Cal in the 127th Big Game. Stanford comes in at 3-7 overall and 2-5 in the ACC while Cal comes in at 5-5 overall and 1-5 in the ACC.
Last time out: Stanford is coming off a 38-35 win over No. 22 Louisville. Emmet Kenney made the game winning field goal from 52 yards out.
RECAP: Stanford gets walk off win over No. 22 Louisville
On Cal: The Golden Bears have had a frustrating season. While they are 5-5, they could easily be 7-3 coming into this game. They have a one point loss to No. 11 Miami at home and another one point loss to NC State at home. They also have a two point loss to Pittsburgh on the road. Last week, the fell to Syracuse at home by a final score of 33-25 as the frustration continued to mount.
The silver lining here for the Bears is they’ve been in a lot of games against quality teams and they are better than their 5-5 record suggests. Of course, at the end of the day what matters is wins and losses and they simply don’t have the amount of wins that they were expected to have coming into the season.
The Bears are led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has thrown for 2,705 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 68.6% of his passes. Mendoza’s favorite target is redshirt sophomore tight end Jack Endries, who has a team-high 43 receptions for 510 yards and two touchdowns. The other main receiving target for Mendoza is redshirt freshman wide receiver Nyziah Hunter, who has 32 receptions for 432 yards and five touchdowns.
On the ground, the leading rusher for the Bears is sophomore running back Jaivian Thomas, who has rushed for 583 yards and seven touchdowns on 86 carries for an average of 6.8 yards per carry. He’s been fantastic all season long and done a nice job of stepping up with junior running back Jaydn Ott not being at full strength. Speaking of Ott, he has rushed for 247 yards and four touchdowns on 82 carries for an average of 3.0 yards per carry. Had he not been dealing with an ankle injury his numbers would likely be a lot better.
Switching gears to defense, Cal co-leads the nation with 17 interceptions on the season, at least that mark was co-leading the nation going into last weekend. A major reason for that is senior defensive back Nohl Williams, who has seven interceptions on the season for 54 yards and one touchdown. Redshirt sophomore defensive back Marcus Harris and redshirt senior defensive back Craig Woodson have two interceptions each, so they too have done a nice job ball hawking.
The leading tackler by far for the Bears is senior inside linebacker Teddye Buchanan, a grad transfer from UC Davis. Buchanan has racked up 97.0 total tackles (37 solo), 11.0 tackles for loss, and 5.0 sacks while also forcing two fumbles. He’s been a dominant force for the Bears’ front seven all season long.
On special teams, the Bears have had some struggles with their field goal kicking. Grad transfer Ryan Coe is 10-17 on his field goals this season and is an alarming 2-5 on kicks from 30-39 yards and 3-4 on kicks from inside the 29 yard line. As a result, they’ve sometimes turned to true freshman Derek Morris, who is 10-12 on his field goals but like Coe missed from inside the 29 yard line. Morris has proven to be more accurate, but Coe has the better leg. Coe has made a 54 yard field goal this season while the long for Morris is 46 yards. How the kicking game shakes out will be something to watch.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is take care of the ball. When you see how many interceptions Cal has this season, you know that a big key to beating them is not turning the ball over. If Stanford can make wise decisions with the ball and not give Cal good looks at interceptions, that more than anything will help Stanford win this game. Stanford quarterbacks Ashton Daniels, Justin Lamson, and Elijah Brown (if he plays) will need to be smart with their decision making.
Secondly, Stanford needs to continue to stop the run. Their defense has done a nice job of stopping the run overall, but every game it feels like they give up at least one 40+ yard run. Cal has some explosive running backs who will look to rip off such gains. If Stanford can keep those guys at bay and not allow them to go off, they’ll be in a good position to win. Of course, a big part of this will be executing on 3rd down.
Third, Stanford needs to win the special teams battle. Stanford kicker Emmet Kenney has made two game winning field goals this season with last week being a 52 yarder to beat No. 22 Louisville. Stanford has the best kicker in the game and that could end up making the difference if this game is close. On top of field goal kicking, Stanford also needs to do well with their coverage and not allow Cal to make big plays in the return game.
Finally, Stanford needs to make plays with their pass rush. Outside linebackers David Bailey and Teva Tafiti are both excellent pass rushers. If those guys can make plays and wreak some havoc in the backfield, Stanford will be in a good position to win.
Prediction: This is a game that I feel Stanford could really win. They’re coming off a huge win over Louisville and are coming into Big Game with some momentum. Cal in contrast is coming off a disappointing loss to Syracuse. Having said that, I still gotta pick Cal to win this one. On paper they’re the better team, they're gunning for four straight Big Game victories, and with it being in Berkeley, I simply have to give the Bears the edge in this one: 38-31.
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