This weekend, #8 Stanford baseball will head to Berkeley for a three-game series at Cal. Game one is on Thursday at 7:00 PM PT. Game two is on Friday at 7:00 PM PT. Game three is on Saturday at 6:00 PM PT. All three games will air on Pac-12 Networks and KZSU radio. Stanford comes in at 18-7 overall and 7-2 in the Pac-12 while Cal comes in at 12-12 overall and 3-9 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: Stanford defeated Oklahoma 16-5 on Sunday to even their four-game road series with the Sooners.
RECAP: #7 Stanford BSB bounces back on Sunday at Oklahoma
Probable Pitchers: On Thursday: Stanford senior left-handed pitcher Quinn Mathews (3-2, 2.78 ERA, 53K) vs. Cal graduate left-handed pitcher Daniel Colwell (1-2, 6.05 ERA, 13K). On Friday: Stanford freshman right-handed pitcher Matt Scott (4-0, 1.86 ERA, 31K) vs. Cal sophomore right-handed pitcher Christian Becerra (0-1, 4.05 ERA, 24K). On Saturday: Stanford junior right-handed pitcher Joey Dixon (3-0, 4.35 ERA) vs. Cal junior right-handed pitcher Paulshawn Pasqualotto (2-0, 3.13 ERA, 20K).
On Cal: Cal got off to a really strong start this year, taking two out of three at Houston before winning a non-conference Tuesday night game at Stanford and then winning all three games played at the Cal Baseball Classic against Cal Poly and Connecticut. Since that 6-1 start, the Golden Bears are 6-11, really struggling to recapture the consistency they had at the beginning of the season.
The top power and contact hitter on this Golden Bears team is sophomore outfielder Rodney Green, Jr. who is hitting .284 for six home runs, 14 RBIs, a .537 slugging percentage, and a .376 on base percentage. The number two contact hitter is graduate student catcher/utility Dom Souto, who is batting .275 for three home runs, 11 RBIs, a .450 slugging percentage, and a .359 on base percentage. The number two power hitter is sophomore catcher Caleb Lomavita, who is batting .262 for five home runs, 17 RBIs, a .447 slugging percentage, and a .313 on base percentage.
As a team, the Bears have a .233 batting average for 30 home runs, 122 RBIs, and 125 runs. Their opponents have a .260 batting average for 31 home runs, 112 RBIs, and 128 runs. The interesting thing there is Cal has a +10 differential in RBIs and yet a -3 differential in runs. So, that means they given up 14 runs on the year that were not batted in.
Pitching-wise, the Bears have a 4.20 ERA while their opponents have a 4.93 ERA. But as the offensive stats reflect, the real issue is giving up non-earned runs. The Bears have given up only 97 earned runs this year, but 128 runs in total. So that means 31 runs they’ve allowed have been non-earned runs for the pitching staff.
Two Cardinal make The Golden Spikes Award Midseason Watchlist: Stanford junior infielder/outfielder Tommy Troy and sophomore outfielder/right-handed pitcher Braden Montgomery have both made The Golden Spikes Award Midseason Watchlist.
Troy is the top contact hitter on this Cardinal team, hitting .413 for three home runs, 18 RBIs, a .688 slugging percentage, and a .500 on base percentage.
Montgomery is the top power hitter on this Cardinal team, hitting .402 for eight home runs, 27 RBIs, a .759 slugging percentage, and a .545 on base percentage. This doesn’t count towards the award, but for those that are curious, Montgomery has a 5.14 ERA on the mound and a 1-0 record in four appearances.
Keys to the series: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is give Quinn Mathews run support. If you notice, he’s 3-2 on the year and the main reason for that is that he hasn’t always gotten the best run support. Last week’s Friday game at Oklahoma is exhibit A of this problem as Mathews got the loss despite it being a 2-0 victory for the Sooners. If the Cardinal can give Mathews quality run support, that will go a long ways towards them winning on Thursday and also winning the series.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is contain Green. He’s the top offensive player on this Cal team. Cal will want him to get going. If Green has a modest weekend, Stanford should be in good shape. If he gets rolling, this could get interesting.
Third, Stanford needs to play the cleaner series. Cal gives up a lot of unearned runs and gives opponents opportunities to capitalize on mistakes that they commit. If Stanford plays the cleaner series and makes the most of any opportunities Cal gives them, I like their chances to win this series.
Finally, with respect to Cal, if they are going to win this series, it’s going to have to start with them playing cleaner as was mentioned above. You’re not going to beat Stanford if you give up unearned runs. And then also, Green needs more help around him. He’s a real talent, but he can’t carry this Golden Bears team on his back. If he had more help from his friends and Cal was winning more games, maybe he would be on The Golden Spikes Award Midseason Watchlist, too.
Prediction: I’ve got Stanford winning this series, that’s the easy part of this prediction. Even with the series being in Berkeley, one has to pick the Cardinal to win the series. They’re just too good. The harder part is figuring out whether or not the Golden Bears win a game or not. They’re at home, it’s a rivalry series, and they’re going to want to at least avoid getting swept by Stanford. Stanford did sweep them last year, but one of the victories was an 8-7 game.
I think this time around, Cal wins that game since it’s in Berkeley and they’re just not going to want to get swept by their rival at home. So, I’ve got Stanford taking two out of three in this one.
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