On Thursday at 2:30 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks, #2 Stanford women’s basketball will take on Oregon State in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament. Stanford comes in at 25-3 overall and 16-0 in the Pac-12 while Oregon State comes in at 14-12 overall and 6-9 in the Pac-12, having won their opening round game of the Pac-12 tournament over Arizona State by a final score of 59-54. Stanford won the regular season series 2-0.
Last time out: On Saturday, Stanford defeated Washington 63-56 on Senior Day. Sophomore forward Cameron Brink (17 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 blocks) and senior guard Lexie Hull (15 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 steals) led the way for the Cardinal.
RECAP: #2 Stanford WBB hangs on to beat Washington on Senior Day
On Oregon State: Freshman guard Talia von Oelhoffen continues to lead the way for this Beavers team as their top player sophomore forward Taylor Jones (shoulder) is done for the season. Oelhoffen is averaging 13.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game, doing a great job of picking up the slack. Redshirt senior forward Ellie Mack has been stepping up her game as well, averaging 8.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Against Stanford at Maples Pavilion, Mack scored a team-high 13 points, so she’s definitely a name Stanford needs to keep an eye on.
As a team, Oregon State averages 64.1 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field, 33.1% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.5% shooting from the foul line. They average 40.2 rebounds, 14.2 assists, 5.2 steals, 4.9 blocks, and 15.4 turnovers per game. They also average a +5.3 rebound margin and a -5.7 turnover margin. Oregon State’s opponents are averaging 62.3 points per game on 36.1% shooting from the field, 29.7% shooting from 3-point range, and 77.3% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: The first thing Stanford needs to do is win the turnover battle. Oregon State is not good at taking care of the ball and if Stanford can dominate this category, they should win with little trouble. Stanford is improving in this department as they are now up to a +1.9 turnover margin per game. They should be feeling confident that they’ll win this area of the game.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is contain Oelhoffen. She’s the best player on this Beavers team right now and will look to have a big performance. Bottom line is if she doesn’t play well, her team is going to be hard pressed to win.
Finally, Stanford needs to get their big three rolling: Haley Jones, Cameron Brink, and Lexie Hull. Against this Oregon State team, if those three are in a groove, it’ll be smooth sailing for Stanford.
Prediction: Stanford is coming in as the #1 seed and regular season Pac-12 champions. They’re the heavy favorites to win the Pac-12 tournament and while a loss in the tournament is possible, if it were to happen, I don’t think it would happen here. Stanford 84 Oregon State 64 is how I see this playing out.
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