On Thursday at 2:30 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks and Varsity Network radio, Stanford women’s basketball will face Oregon in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament. Stanford comes in as the #1 seed in the tournament while Oregon comes in as the #9 seed. Oregon defeated the #8 seed Washington on Wednesday by a final score of 52-50 in the first round. Stanford went 15-3 in the Pac-12 in the regular season while Oregon went 7-11.
Last time out: On Saturday, Stanford fell to Utah on the road by a final score of 84-78. As a result, both schools shared the Pac-12 regular season title. Stanford got the top seed in the Pac-12 tournament via tiebreaker rules.
RECAP: #6 Stanford WBB falls to #3 Utah in Salt Lake to share league title
On Oregon: The Ducks have had a down year relative to their usual standard, but they’re still alive and hoping to pull off a huge upset against a Cardinal team that has looked vulnerable at times in league play. In their lone meeting with Stanford, which was on The Farm, Oregon battled Stanford tough as the Cardinal went on to win 62-54. If they can play Stanford tough once more, anything is possible. Especially in a tournament.
Senior guard Endyia Rogers is averaging 16.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. She is the top scorer on this Ducks team and is doing a great job of bringing a steady effort every night. The other Ducks scoring in double figures are freshman forward Grace VanSlooten (13.9 points & 6.0 rebounds), junior guard Te-Hina Paopao (12.0 points & 4.0 rebounds), and freshman guard Chance Gray (10.4 points). The four of them form a really good scoring punch that is tough to contain.
As a team, the Ducks average 74.1 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, 35.8% shooting from 3-point range, and 71.8% shooting from the foul line. They average 41.6 rebounds, 15.6 assists, 6.8 steals, 3.7 blocks, and 12.3 turnovers per game. They also average a +5.5 rebound margin and a +0.8 turnover margin. Their opponents average 63.6 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field, 31.0% shooting from 3-point range, and 68.0% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing is keeping Cameron Brink out of foul trouble. This could probably be a key to every game and I do try to mix it up, but if a team like Oregon is going to pull off an upset over Stanford, one place for them to start is to get Brink in foul trouble. In their lone meeting in the regular season, Brink had a huge impact with 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 blocks all while committing just two fouls. This allowed her to play 33 minutes. If she stay on the floor, that more than anything should do the trick for the Cardinal.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is take care of the ball. Oregon has a +0.8 turnover margin and is used to winning that battle. In their first meeting Oregon won the turnover battle by +5. If Stanford can do a better job in this department, that would really help. If Oregon once again has a decisive edge in this area, this game could get interesting.
Finally, rebounding is going to be key. In their first meeting Oregon actually won the rebounding battle 54-52. If Stanford can find a way to out-rebound Oregon this time, that would be big. Rebounding is something Tara VanDerveer has been harping on her players about all season long and it’s certain to be an emphasis in this game.
Prediction: While it wouldn’t shock me if Oregon won this game in light of some of the losses Stanford has had, I expect the Cardinal to come out motivated and determined in this one. They do not want to lose in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament. No way. Tara will have her players ready to go. Stanford 70 Oregon 56 is how I see this one playing out.
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