On Friday at 7:00 PM PT on ESPN2 and Varsity Network radio, #2 Stanford women’s basketball (28-3) will take on the Montana State Bobcats (22-12) in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Maples Pavilion. Stanford comes in as the #1 seed in the Spokane region while Montana State comes in as the #16 seed.
On Montana State: The Bobcats come from the Big Sky conference, where they finished 2nd in the regular season and won the conference tournament. They’ve had a great season, but now have as tall of an order in front of them as they can ask to have.
The Bobcats are led by junior guard Darian White (15.9 points & 4.9 rebounds) and junior forward Kola Bad Bear (11.1 points & 5.0 rebounds). Both players are having really strong seasons and obviously are a major reason why the Bobcats are in the tournament.
As a team, the Bobcats average 70.0 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field, 30.7% shooting from 3-point range, and 78.1% shooting from the foul line. They average 37.4 rebounds, 12.6 assists, 9.2 steals, 2.1 blocks, and 11.7 turnovers per game. They also average a -2.3 rebound margin and a +4.0 turnover margin. Their opponents average 67.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field, 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.0% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is take care of the ball. The Bobcats have a +4.0 turnover margin per game and will look to make the most of their ability to force turnovers against a Stanford team that has struggled at times at point guard play. If Stanford can take care of the ball, they should be fine.
Secondly, Stanford needs to dominate inside. Cameron Brink and Haley Jones should both look to do damage inside and others should also follow. If Stanford is the better team in the paint, they’ll win this game.
Finally, Stanford needs to make their foul shots. One way a team like Montana State can hang around is if Stanford isn’t making their foul shots. If Stanford can get to the line and knock down their foul shots, they’ll be really tough to beat. As a quick extension of this, Stanford should also do everything they can to keep Montana State away from the foul line given how well they shoot it. That’s another way Montana State can keep this game close.
Prediction: Given that this is a 16 vs. 1 matchup, there’s really no good reason to think Montana State has much of a shot in this game. And on top of that, they’ll be playing on the road. I got Stanford winning comfortably by 25 points. 80-55 is how I see this panning out.
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