How hot is Jerod Haase’s seat at Stanford?
Stanford men’s basketball is currently 5-12 overall and 0-7 in the Pac-12: The only team in the Pac-12 yet to win a league game. If they don’t find a way to beat Oregon State on Thursday at home, we could be looking at a very real possibility that they enter their home game against Cal at 0-9 in league play. A game once thought to be a lock for them to win a month ago, it’s looking far from that now as the Golden Bears have won two games in league and nearly picked up a third were it not for a last minute collapse at Washington that resulted in an overtime loss.
It would be one thing if Stanford had been picked to finish last in the Pac-12 or towards the bottom of the standings, but no. They were picked to finish 5th in the preseason media poll. This was a team that was eying an NCAA tournament return and at worst a trip to the NIT. Now, barring a magical run in Las Vegas to win the Pac-12 tournament, Stanford is doomed to not only miss the NCAA tournament, but the NIT as well. Not that the NIT is a bad tournament. You have to be decent to make the NIT as an at large bid, but in a season where making the Big Dance is the talk, failing to make the little dance is a failure of a season.
Ultimately, Stanford’s failure to even come close to meeting expectations falls on the shoulders of their head coach Jerod Haase who is in his seventh season at the helm of this once great Cardinal program. Stanford used to be a consistent NCAA tournament presence. Now, they are going on nine years without an NCAA tournament appearance, the last one being in 2014 under Johnny Dawkins, who got the Cardinal to the Sweet Sixteen that season.
Stanford fired Dawkins for not meeting their standards of excellence and replaced him with a head coach who has found a way to be even more disappointing. You can say what you want about Johnny Dawkins and his time on The Farm, but he coached Stanford to the Sweet Sixteen and two NIT championships. Jerod Haase has coached Stanford to one NIT appearance and that was back in the 2017-18 season. And it’s not even like Stanford won the NIT that year or made a deep run. They lost in the second round.
Now, I’ve been of the opinion for a while that Stanford will give Jerod Haase at least as many seasons (eight) as Johnny Dawkins. Especially since he’s had to deal with seasons affected by COVID. The one season he might have gotten the Cardinal to the NCAA tournament (2019-20), the tournament was canceled due to COVID. However, Stanford did lose to Cal in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament to end their season, so it’s far from a guarantee they would have made the tournament.
Still, to be fair to Haase, there are some realistic models that had Stanford barely making the field of 68 that year. Stanford went 20-12 overall and 9-9 in the Pac-12 that season. Oregon State in their miraculous Elite Eight run in the 2020-21 season went 20-13 overall and 10-10 in the Pac-12. But Haase never got to find out if his team would have made the tourney because it was canceled due to the virus.
In that sense, it’s hard to make a fair comparison between Haase’s seven years and Dawkins’ eight. Dawkins didn’t have to hold practices in a dark high school gym in Santa Cruz because Santa Clara County didn’t let his team play at Maples Pavilion. He didn’t have a potential NCAA tournament appearance taken from him. He didn’t have to deal with two straight seasons in the most COVID restrictive county in the nation. Dawkins’ mediocrity came in eight normal seasons without any of those kind of challenges. Haase’s mediocrity has come in seven seasons, three of which were affected by COVID in some way.
That all said, COVID is behind us now and Haase is having his first normal season since pre-pandemic times. And in the process, he is staring down his worst season since his first year on The Farm in which Stanford went 14-17 overall and 6-12 in the Pac-12. And this is a season where there were real NCAA tournament hopes.
If Stanford had a couple of wins in league play at this point, I could hold off asking the question I’m about to ask for the time being. But since they are winless in league play through seven games, I have to ask: Just how hot is Jerod Haase’s seat at Stanford?
I don’t know for sure what Stanford athletic director Bernard Muir is thinking or how he is evaluating things, but at this point, I’ve come to the conclusion that on a scale of 1-10, the heat on Haase’s seat should be a 10 out of 10. It's year 7 and his team is off to an 0-7 start in league play. How could it be anything else?
This upcoming week against the Oregon schools is crucial. Haase absolutely needs his team to beat Oregon State on Thursday and in truth, they need to get the home sweep by also beating Oregon on Saturday. Then, after winning against Chicago State (assuming that's a win), Stanford will then welcome Cal to Maples and if they can win that game, they could be 3-7 in league play and on a four game winning streak. If that happens, Haase's seat will still be really hot, but it might cool slightly to like a 9 out of 10. And then of course, if they keep winning more games, the hot seat for Haase could cool to perhaps an 8 out of 10 but nothing cooler than that (unless they run the table in Las Vegas). That means I think there's still a really good chance he's fired, but I wouldn't say it's a total slam dunk, either.
Why do I think the temperature could lower to an 8 out of 10? Well, there are a couple of reasons. First, Haase has arguably his best recruiting class coming in next season in 4-star point guard Kanaan Carlyle and 4-star shooting guard Andrej Stojakovic. The second reason is Haase has had a rather unusual time on The Farm due to all the challenges that have come with COVID. I expect Stanford to be sympathetic to the challenges he has faced and they’ve already invested a lot in him. To fire him on the eve of bringing in what could be his best recruiting class ever, things would have to be really really bad.
I could envision a situation where Stanford finishes the season just well enough to give Muir the cover he needs to bring Haase back for one more season with Carlyle and Stojakovic. What does that look like? I don't want to give out a magic number of wins that I think would save Haase's job because I don't know for sure how Muir is evaluating things. Obviously if they were to win the Pac-12 tournament, that would save Haase's job, but the odds of that are low. So, getting into what Haase would have to do short of winning the Pac-12 tournament to save his job is hard to say. Obviously the more wins he can pick up the better.
I do think Muir wants Haase to get the chance to coach Carlyle and Stojakovic and will give him as much leniency as possible. Especially since the last time he had an elite point guard (Tyrell Terry), it was the season the NCAA tournament was canceled. The one year Haase might have gotten Stanford into the tournament. But at the same time, I also don't see Muir being willing to bring Haase back if things continue on their present course.
I guess one wild card in all of this is what Haase’s contract situation is and when that comes up. Stanford doesn’t disclose that information, so pending on when that expires, that could be something that either works in favor of Haase coming back next season or against him. Stanford may not want to pay off both a head football coach and head basketball coach at the same time if they can avoid doing so. If Haase’s contract say expires after next season or the season after, maybe that in and of itself makes Stanford give him another season.
As far as what my personal opinion is, I think Haase has done a lot of good things at Stanford. He’s connected well with his players, he’s brought in a lot of talent, he’s instilled toughness in his teams, and they always play hard. His teams truly embrace his “floor burn” philosophy. He’s connected really well with the Stanford community, has worked hard to build up the Sixth Man Club, and just in general is a guy who everybody likes.
Plus, he doesn’t make excuses. He owns the shortcomings of his team like a head coach should. He doesn’t point fingers, blame injuries, blame his players, or have Stanford put up pathetic messages on the jumbotron explaining why his team is snakebit before his team takes the court.
Last year at the Pac-12 tournament, the parents of a player who was recruited by Haase told me how much they liked Haase and his staff and how much they were hoping he wouldn’t get fired. Similarly, someone else this season, a staff (non-coach) member of an opposing team told me after a game this year how much they like Haase and how happy they were he got the Stanford job. They added they really hope he can get some wins because they really respect what kind of person and coach he is. I think it’s important those things be considered and brought into the record when evaluating Jerod Haase.
That all said, none of those things directly translate into wins on the basketball court and that is what reigns supreme. Wins are what matter most and if you aren’t winning, no matter how nice of a guy you are, at some point that’s going to come back to haunt you and it feels like that’s exactly what’s happening with Haase. Stanford better be preparing to look for a new coach come mid-March. If they're not, one has to wonder how serious they are about winning in men's basketball.
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