Decision Impact: Costello goes Cardinal
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It would not be hyperbole to claim that K.J. Costello's commitment to Stanford over USC and Michigan last Thursday was one of the Cardinal's biggest recruiting victories of the past decade.
In Costello, Stanford landed one of the nation's top quarterbacks, a dynamic passer and Rivals100 talent who filled perhaps the program's biggest recruiting need.
They also added a nationally recognized prospect who has the tools and the desire to help build Stanford's 2016 class into one of the nation's best.
Here's a look at why Costello's decision was so important for the Cardinal.
Costello's talent
Rivals.com currently ranks Costello as the nation's No. 25 player. Should that ranking and Costello's commitment to the Cardinal hold, he'll be the third highest-ranked prospect in the 15-year history of the Rivals.com rankings to ink with Stanford. Only Trent Edwards and Kyle Murphy were ranked higher, and Costello will have a chance to surpass both with a strong senior campaign and a solid showing at the All American/camp showcases.
A more instructive analysis of Costello's ranking in the larger, college-wide perspective might include an examination of quarterbacks ranked among the top 25 national recruits regardless of school.
In that regard, he's in rare air. Only 17 quarterbacks - an average of less than two per year - ranked among the nation's top 25 prospects in the decade leading up to the 2016 recruiting cycle.
Six of those 17 are either still in school or eligible for this year's NFL Draft. Of the other 11, eight are currently on NFL teams, and only two appear to be completely out of football. The other is Tim Tebow.
Then, of course, there's the eye test. Costello passes that with flying colors, as well.
Rivals.com has evaluated Costello in person numerous times over the last year. Here are notes from those evaluations.
Rivals.com Evaluation 3/30/15 7-on-7 Tournament - After making his college commitment late this week, the four-star quarterback could have easily come into this tournament unfocused. The opposite was true. Costello zipped passes all over the field to a bevy of outstanding receivers and he had another excellent showing befitting one of the nation's top quarterbacks. He's a winner and a competitor and it showed on Sunday. Plus, he's really refined his game and doesn't just throw everything 100 miles per hour. Costello threw some gorgeous touch passes as well.
Rivals.com Evaluation 3/1/15 7-on-7 Tournament: The gusty conditions at Heritage Park had no effect on the strong-armed Costello, who dazzled by hitting receivers in stride. He was on point throughout the afternoon and was superb on deep throws, showing a great connection with his deep stable of receivers. Costello looked off safeties well and attacked the middle of the field with confidence.
Rivals.com Evaluation 9/20/14 Game: Costello played from behind for nearly the entire game and was under pressure all night. He threw a bad interception in the fourth quarter but only because he was clearly pressing in an attempt to get something going for his offense. On the occasions that he had time to set his feet, Costello threw a near perfect ball and showcased tremendous arm strength. He's not great when it comes to throwing on the run, which he was forced to do often on Friday. Despite a lack of results, Costello's tools and mechanics were on display.
Rivals.com Evaluation 7/19/14 7-on-7: Costello shows up at every event and performs well. This was not his best showing since he was inconsistent at times but the 2016 prospect has proven he has the goods and is one of the best quarterbacks in this class. The QB MVP of the Rivals Camp Series Northern California does not have a tremendous amount of offensive weapons but he moves the ball, makes smart decisions and is definitely a leader. He's visiting UCLA, Stanford and Arizona State in the next week.
Rivals.com Evaluation 6/22/14 7-on-7: Costello is one of the hottest 2016 quarterback prospects in the country right now, and watching him this weekend it is no wonder. The game comes very naturally to the 6-foot-4, 218-pounder and he has easy power in his arm. There are a few rough edges to work out, particularly in his decision-making, but nothing that cannot be developed in the next couple years and his ceiling his sky high. Alabama is his most recent offer, but connections to USC and Notre Dame should be watched during his recruitment.
Rivals.com Evaluation 5/19/14 7-on-7: Costello has been one of the hottest underclassmen in the West this offseason and he proved why once again during the Air Strike tournament throwing perfect passes all over the field and showing off an incredibly strong arm. The RCS Northern California quarterback MVP has shown more control at recent events and really has done a nice job pinpointing his passes and not just firing at will. Michigan just offered and it's a huge one for him. He'll visit in June and it could be one of the frontrunners. Florida State is high up there as well and he's going to seeTennessee, Alabama and others in a few weeks.
Rivals.com Evaluation 4/13/14 7-on-7: Just like Crawford, his Body By Tra teammate, the 2016 quarterback had a major week with his first two offers from Florida State and Tennessee. Then he came out like he has all off-season including an MVP performance at the RCS Northern California and delivered the ball showing off an amazingly strong arm. Costello has tremendous zip on his passes - sometimes he needs to put a little more touch on it - but he has an incredible arm to hit streaking receivers down the sideline. For a young quarterback, Costello is really impressive.
Cardinal Sports Report has also watched Costello throw in person on a number of occasions - after his freshman year of high school, during the early spring of his sophomore year, and in the summer prior to his junior year. He showed improvement on each occasion. His performance at Stanford's camp last summer was very good, highlighted by a terrific display of touch and accuracy on the deep ball. Stanford has had some of the nation's very best quarterbacks in its camp over the last few years, but no one was better than Costello in that area.
Here are his junior year highlights.
And here is single-game film from Santa Margarita's victory over Servite in the fall of 2014.
If the film and in-person scouting doesn't tell the story, perhaps this will: Stanford was joined by the likes of Michigan, USC, Alabama, Florida State, Florida, UCLA, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and several others in offering Costello a scholarship. That Stanford beat out former coach Jim Harbaugh and Michigan and rival USC in the competition for Costello's services undoubtedly made the recruiting win that much sweeter for Stanford's fanbase.
*Though they will be updated several more times before Signing Day, Costello is currently the No. 4-ranked QB in the 2016 class, behind Jacob Eason, Shea Patterson and Malik Henry.
**Though he was listed as a quarterback, Russell Shepard played wide receiver at LSU. He also plays receiver at the NFL level.
The Need
Landing a top quarterback is a big deal for any program in any year. But when that top target just so happens to fill perhaps a program's biggest need, the commitment becomes that much more important.
While the Cardinal did sign highly ranked quarterbacks in 2013 and 2014, they didn't sign any in 2012 (Dallas Lloyd, a 2010 signee who joined the program in 2012 following an LDS mission, was moved to safety two seasons ago) or 2015.
As a result, Stanford absolutely, positively, could not afford to miss at the position in 2016.
Obviously, if Costello picked another program, Stanford would have continued to recruit the quarterback position and eventually found somebody. But odds are the player wouldn't have been as good as Costello - few are. Plus, since Stanford identified Costello as its top quarterback target so long ago (and has been recruiting him accordingly), the program did not offer other quarterback prospects. As a result, they would have been playing catch up with other potential 2016 QB candidates.
Ultimately, Stanford went all-in on the highest of high stakes recruiting battles and came out with the winning hand.
Building a Class
Costello's commitment to Stanford could give the Cardinal an unprecedented (for Stanford) boost in the form of an extra - and potentially very effective - recruiter.
A number of Stanford commits have done more than their fair share in trying to build various Cardinal recruiting classes over the years - Brian Chaffin, Shayne Skov, Terrence Stephens and several others come to mind - but none of Stanford's most dynamic "recruit recruiters," for lack of a better term - was a quarterback.
Costello is, and that's no small consideration.
Costello has been vocal about wanting to do his best to help Stanford build a quality 2016 recruiting class, and he checks all the boxes one looks for in a a recruit that could help convince other top prospects to join him.
He plays the most important position on the field, one that demands leadership and produces leaders. Unlike essentially every other spot on the field, it's also one that very directly impacts the success of other positions, namely receivers and tight ends.
He has a personality that would seem to translate well to recruiting other prospects, which has not been the case for all of Stanford's recent quarterback signees. (Stanford has signed several somewhat soft-spoken, introverted personalities at the QB position in the last few years. Good people, all, but different personalities.)
Costello is really, really good, according to all available evidence, and good players like playing with good players. Specifically, good receivers and tight ends like playing with good quarterbacks; Costello's commitment is sure to be a selling point for Stanford with tight end Kaden Smith and receivers like Josh Imatorbhebhe, Demetris Robertson, Tre Nixon and co.
He's well connected - Costello is a regular in the Southern California 7-on-7 scene, and is close with several other top 2016 prospects, including Dylan Crawford.
Stanford will hold one of its biggest Junior Days in years this weekend. It's still somewhat unclear if Costello will make it in, but with several top receivers/tight ends expected to attend, his influence on the weekend will be significant one way or the other.
And while the sum of his impact on the Stanford program over the next half decade remains to be seen, the importance of his Cardinal commitment is already quite clear.
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