Earlier this week, I wrote about Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee’s 2023 NFL Draft outlook. Today, I want to write about the 2023 NBA Draft outlook of Stanford forward Spencer Jones, who will be a senior in the 2022-23 season.
As it stands, the only Stanford player whose name is floating around draft boards is freshman Harrison Ingram, who declared for the 2022 NBA Draft, but might come back for a sophomore season. NBADraft.net has Ingram going early second round in 2023, so they’re banking he comes back for a sophomore year. We’ll just have to wait and see what he’ll ultimately do.
But if Ingram does decide to come back for the 2022-23 season, what are the odds that Jones will join him as the second Cardinal to get selected in the 2023 NBA Draft? That’s what I want to take a closer look at.
In his junior year, Jones had the best season of his career, averaging 12.0 points and 4.5 rebounds per game on 47.4% shooting from the field, 37.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.0% shooting from the foul line. At 6’7”, 225 pounds, Jones has average size for an NBA small forward, so from a physical standpoint, he at least passes the eye test there. When you have the size that Jones has and the ability to shoot from 3-point range that he does, on paper, it is possible to find a home in the NBA or at least get drafted and have a team take a flyer on you.
What really makes Jones’ NBA chances worth discussing is the way he played in the Pac-12 tournament. In Stanford’s first round win over Arizona State, he had a career-high 26 points to go along with 6 rebounds on 8-17 (47.1%) shooting from the field, 6-12 (50.0%) shooting from 3-point range, and 4-4 shooting from the foul line. In Stanford’s quarterfinal loss to Arizona, he followed up that performance with a new career-high 28 points and 8 rebounds on 12-18 (66.7%) shooting from the field and 4-7 (57.1%) shooting from 3-point range. In those two games, he definitely looked like an NBA prospect.
It should also be noted that these weren’t his only big-time performances of the season. Jones had 22 points at Arizona right before the Pac-12 tournament, 22 points at home against UCLA, 24 points at home against Washington State, 25 points against Liberty in Hawaii and 21 points at home against USC. He had seven 20+ point games in total last season. He showed he knows how to shoot the ball at an elite level.
On top of being a great shooter, Jones also is pretty active on the glass and has an ability to score inside. He’s a banger and has really embraced Jerod Haase’s call to be physical in the paint. That’s important for his NBA prospects because it shows he can do other things beside shoot.
Jones also has shown tremendous toughness and grit. What makes his Pac-12 tournament performances all the more impressive is that he was putting up those points while not being at full strength. His back was bothering him and he was getting treatment on the sidelines in between timeouts and when he was getting rested. He showed that he can play while he’s hurt and that he isn’t afraid to take a pounding.
So where does this all leave us? Can Spencer Jones play his way onto 2023 NBA draft boards? I think the answer is yes, but it’s of course not guaranteed that he will. While he is certainly big enough for the NBA, 6’7” guys who can shoot are fairly commonplace in the NBA and it’s tough to differentiate yourself from the crowd. On top of that, Jones isn’t the most athletic player. He isn’t a highflyer. Jumping is not a strong suit of his. If he’s going to play his way onto NBA draft boards in 2023, he’s going to have to really go bananas from deep.
Probably the closest Stanford comparison I can make to Jones in terms of who he needs to try to emulate is Casey Jacobsen, who at 6’6”, 215 pounds became a first round selection in the 2002 NBA Draft by the Phoenix Suns after averaging 21.9 points and 4.5 rebounds per game on 44.1% shooting from the field, 37.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 77.6% shooting from the foul line in his junior season. It’s very important to note that Jacobsen was much better than Jones in his first three years on The Farm and that he was a first round pick after his junior season. He was so good he didn’t need to come back to college for a fourth year.
So, I’m not saying Spencer Jones is as good as Casey Jacobsen or anything like that. But, what I am saying is if there is a Stanford great out there for Jones to try to emulate as best he can and maybe spend some time in the gym with, it’s Jacobsen. If Jones can become even a 16+ points per game scorer with similar shooting percentages, he could see his name floating around draft boards come 2023. And then of course, if Jones has a senior year comparable to Jacobsen’s junior year, he should see more than just his name floating around. He should be a lock to get drafted.
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