Last week, the Pac-12 released the full 2021-22 conference schedule for men’s basketball. With Stanford’s non-conference schedule already being released, this means that Stanford’s full schedule has now been finalized aside from a few tipoff times. What I’ll do in this piece is break down the Cardinal’s conference schedule. If you missed my breakdown of their non-conference schedule, click here to check that out.
To help assist you in understanding my methodology for breaking this down, let me first share how I voted in the Pac-12 pre-season media poll with respect to where each team will land.
1. UCLA
2. Oregon
3. Colorado
4. Stanford
5. USC
6. Oregon State
7. Arizona State
8.Washington State
9. Washington
10. Arizona
11. Utah
12. Cal
With a 20 game Pac-12 schedule, two Pac-12 games occur during the fall quarter/semester. Back when it was an 18 game league schedule, league games wouldn’t occur until after Christmas, typically around New Year’s Day. Stanford’s two fall quarter league games are on Sunday, November 28 at Colorado and Sunday, December 12 vs. Oregon.
Looking first at Colorado, they did lose their senior floor general McKinley Wright IV, but they got a talented floor general entering their program in 2021 4-star point guard K.J. Simpson. Sophomore forward Jabari Walker is another talented player that’s looking to make a leap this year. Senior forward Evan Battey, who averaged 10.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game will be tough inside as will incoming freshman Lawson Lovering, a 4-star 7-footer out of Cheyenne, Wyoming. Even though they don’t have Wright anymore, the Buffaloes have reloaded quite nicely and should prove to be a difficult road opponent. Especially when you factor in the altitude.
As for Oregon, they too lost some key guys with their top three scorers all opting to go pro: Chris Duarte, Eugene Omoruyi, and LJ Figueroa. However, guard Will Richardson is back and they’ve added a couple of interesting faces in 2021 5-star big man Nathan Bittle and Oklahoma transfer point guard De’Vion Harmon, who was a 2019 4-star recruit. Bottom line is the Ducks have lost some guys, but they’ve reloaded as well. This too will be a tough game but considering that Stanford has some legit talent coming in of their own in Harrison Ingram and Isa Silva to go along with a solid cast of returning veterans, this should be an exciting game at Maples. Certainly a fun way to tip-off conference play at home.
After wrapping up their non-conference play with a holiday tournament, Stanford’s next conference game will be at home against Cal on Sunday, January 2.
Cal lost their lone star player Matt Bradley to the transfer portal as he sought greener pastures at San Diego State. The Bears did bring in a graduate transfer in Jordan Shepherd and some freshmen that might have some long term upside in Marsalis Roberson, Sam Alajiki, and Obinna Anyanwu, but it’s hard to tell how much those guys will contribute out of the chute. Bottom line with Cal is they’re not projected to be good this year. I do have them finishing at the bottom of the Pac-12 and they’ll be hard pressed to win more than a handful of league games if they’re lucky.
After a couple of tough games to start Pac-12 play, Stanford should walk all over Cal at Maples Pavilion and cruise to an easy win. I know historically the men’s basketball rivalry has been back and forth, but the talent gap between these two teams is just too great to ignore. Stanford has a legit Pac-12 level roster while Cal’s roster honestly is better suited for the WCC or Mountain West.
Following Cal, Stanford will have a homestand against the So Cal schools. UCLA on Thursday, January 6 and USC on Saturday, January 8.
I have UCLA winning the Pac-12. They went to the Final Four and are bringing a lot of key guys back in Jules Bernard, Tyger Campbell, Cody Riley, and Jaime Jacquez. Plus, they got a 5-star freshman small forward in Peyton Watson. The Bruins are going to be good and will not be an easy team to beat. If Stanford can win this game, that’ll definitely be a signature win for their NCAA tournament resume.
As for USC, they’re not as strong as they were last year with Evan Mobley leaving for the NBA, but they’ll still be solid. Isaiah Mobley is back and incoming transfer Boogie Ellis should provide some sound leadership in the back court. Senior guard Drew Peterson can get going as well, averaging 9.8 points and 5.0 rebounds per game last year on 42.4% shooting from the field, 38.5% shooting from 3-point range, and 70.1% shooting from the foul line. USC won’t be as tough as UCLA, but they’re not going to be an easy win. Even with the game being at Maples.
The next week, Stanford will head to the Pacific Northwest to face Washington State on Wednesday, January 12 and Washington on Saturday, January 15.
Touching first on Wazzu, Stanford should remember junior guard Noah Williams, who went off for 40 points against them last year in Pullman. He dropped 32 points on Cal the game before, so he’s been good against the Bay Area teams. The Cougars also have a talented grad transfer guard in Michael Flowers, who’ll give their backcourt an additional punch. Down low, the Cougars got some bangers in D.J. Rodman and Dishon Jackson. The Cougars won’t be the hardest team Stanford faces all year, but Pullman is never an easy place to play. This is certainly a game that Stanford won’t want to take lightly.
Looking at Washington, the first thing that stands out for Stanford is Daejon Davis, who graduated from Stanford and is now at Washington as a graduate transfer. Davis is a Seattle native, who played at Garfield High School, so he’s certainly happy to be back home. He’s a really good two-way guard that gets after it on both ends of the floor, so he’s a very nice pickup for this Huskies team. The Huskies also have a really talented 4-star big man arriving in Jackson Grant that should give them a nice presence down low and someone to build around for the future. Washington wasn’t very good last year, but they could be turning the corner. Like Washington State, this is another game that Stanford cannot take lightly.
Following the road trip up north, Stanford will come back to the Bay Area to face the Arizona schools. Arizona on Thursday, January 20 and Arizona State on Saturday, January 22.
Arizona is entering their first season in the post-Sean Miller era, so they’re in full rebuilding mode right now as Tommy Lloyd takes the reins. Arizona will no doubt play hard this year and they got enough talent on their roster with guys like Dalen Terry and Bennedict Mathurin to win some games this year in the Pac-12. But against Stanford in Maples Pavilion, I don’t see them picking up a win. Stanford definitely should win this one.
As for Arizona State, they too aren’t going to be as good as they’ve been in years past, though they should be better than Arizona. Remy Martin, Josh Christopher, and Alonzo Verge are all gone, making Marcus Bagley their top guy. Bagley is going to have to have a big year if Arizona State is going to make any noise this year. He’s really good, but he can’t do it all by himself. This is a situation where Stanford’s depth should win out.
Following the Arizona schools at home, Stanford will head to So Cal to face USC on Thursday, January 27 and UCLA on Saturday, January 29. USC is definitely the more winnable of the two games. If Stanford wants to get a split in this trip, they better take care of business against the Trojans. UCLA won’t be easy at Maples and they’ll be even tougher at Pauley Pavilion.
Up next for Stanford will be Washington State at home on Thursday, February 3 and Washington on Sunday, February 6. Stanford should get the sweep here. Especially after seeing these two teams earlier in the year on the road. These are two games that Stanford cannot afford to lose. They gotta win these two games and move on to the next week with little trouble.
Stanford will then hit the road to take on Oregon on Thursday, February 10 and Oregon State on Saturday, February 12. Oregon on the road won’t be easy. They project to be a very good team as I said earlier. If Stanford can get a win here, that would be very impressive.
Oregon State reached the Elite Eight last year, so they certainly have some pieces in place to be dangerous. Guys like forward Warith Alatishe and guard Jarod Lucas. The Beavers won’t be an easy team to beat and will require a sound effort if Stanford is to beat them. That being said, their top scorer from last year Ethan Thompson is gone and he was a big part of what they do. So, in terms of road games, this is definitely a game Stanford should feel confident in being able to win.
Up next for Stanford will be home games against Utah on Thursday, February 17 and Colorado on Saturday, February 19.
Looking at Utah, they are in year one of the Craig Smith era, so they’re very much in rebuilding mode after moving on from Larry Krystkowiak. They do have some intriguing pieces in junior 7-footer Branden Carlson, senior forward Riley Battin, and Both Gach, who is back with Utah after spending a year with Minnesota. But even with those guys, Stanford honestly should dominate Utah in a very similar fashion to how they’ll dominate Cal when Cal comes to Maples. Utah is not a very good team, which is typical of teams that are in year one of a new head coach.
As for Colorado, they’ll be good. But with this being the second time they see them, I do feel like Stanford should win this game. Especially if they come in with some momentum having won 2+ games in a row.
The next week, Stanford has just one game, which will be in Berkeley on Saturday, February 26 against Cal. Cal should be a better, more cohesive group at this point of the year than when they came to Maples Pavilion, but even so, they’re still not going to be a good team. The lack of talent sticks out like a sore thumb as Cal is the weakest they’ve been since Dick Kuchen coached them in the late 70s/early-mid 80s.
That all said, history tells us this game could be closer than expected given the back and forth nature of this rivalry. So, this does have the makings for being a trap game. Stanford having NCAA tournament seeding and Cal having nothing but pure pride on the line. If Stanford can walk out with a 2-0 series win over Cal, even with how bad I think Cal is going to be, they should feel good knowing they avoided adding a “bad loss” to their NCAA tournament resume.
To close out the regular season, Stanford will hit the road and head to the Arizona schools to face Arizona on Thursday, March 3 in Tucson and Arizona State on Saturday, March 5 in Tempe. Stanford should get the win over Arizona, but Arizona State might be a different story. That one won’t be easy. If Stanford can get a split in this trip, they should be happy and if they get a sweep, even better.
When looking at the season as a whole, Stanford should be in line to win anywhere from 13 to 15 league games. If they do, they should be in a position to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014. The real key will be for them to defend their home court and pick up the winnable road games that I set out for them. They should win at Cal, at Oregon State, at USC, and at Arizona. If they go 10-0 at home in the Pac-12 or 9-1 and win the road games I listed above, that puts them at 13-14 league wins right there.
As an extension of that, there are some games on the schedule that should be fairly easy for them to get: Both of the Cal games, the home game against Utah, both Arizona games, and sweeping the Washington schools at home. Those games present great opportunities to boost their NCAA tournament resume by racking up league wins, but they also pose a danger of being “bad losses” on their resume as well. Stanford needs to make sure they win those games as well if they’re going to find themselves playing in the NCAA tournament.
