The Pac-12 men’s basketball tournament starts on Wednesday and before breaking down Stanford’s matchup, I thought it would be fun for me to provide my own thoughts on the tournament since I really enjoy Pac-12 hoops as a whole. I thought about breaking things down by odds percentage, but instead I’ve decided to put teams in different categories in order of most likely to win the tournament to least likely. This is purely based on my own opinion and observations. Enjoy!
Front Runner: Arizona-The Arizona Wildcats are the clear front runners to win the Pac-12 tournament. At least 55% odds in my book. Bennedict Mathurin (17.3 points & 5.7 rebounds) is by far and away the best player in the conference and he has a great supporting cast around him. The Wildcats went 18-2 in the Pac-12 and averaged a +13.8 point margin of victory per game. They’re simply a notch above everyone else in the Pac-12 and deserve to be in a category all by themselves.
Legit contender: UCLA and USC-UCLA and USC are in the “Legit contender” category. If Arizona doesn’t win the Pac-12 tournament, UCLA and USC are the two teams most likely to dethrone them.
Touching first on UCLA, the Bruins have a lot of depth, going 15-5 in conference. Johnny Juzang (16.7 points & 4.7 rebounds), Jaime Jacquez Jr. (13.3 points & 5.5 rebounds), Jules Bernard (12.3 points & 4.6 rebounds), and Tyger Campbell (11.7 points & 4.3 assists) form a dynamic unit that has Final Four experience. Given that they went 1-1 against Arizona in the regular season, they definitely should feel confident in their chances to win a rubber match if given the chance.
As for USC, they went 14-6 in conference. Similar to UCLA, they have depth: Isaiah Mobley (14.6 points & 8.5 rebounds), Drew Peterson (12.5 points & 6.4 rebounds), Boogie Ellis (12.2 points), and Chevez Goodwin (11.3 points & 6.4 rebounds). They have a lot of weapons and have the talent to possibly knock off Arizona. They were a little up and down in the season losing twice to Stanford, losing at home to Oregon, and having a nail biting 74-68 home victory over Pacific. But that notwithstanding, they deserve to be in the same “Legit contender” category as UCLA.
It should be noted that UCLA being the #2 seed and USC being the #3 seed are on the opposite side of the draw as Arizona, so they won’t have to see the Wildcats until the championship game if they see them at all.
Dark horse: Colorado and Washington State-Colorado and Washington State are both in the “Dark horse” category. This means that while a long shot, of the long shots, they have the best odds of possibly making a run. Starting with Colorado, they got guys who can ball out. Sophomore forward Jabari Walker (14.7 points & 9.4 rebounds) is the real deal. He was a contender for most improved player in the Pac-12 and made the All-Pac-12 First Team. With him on their side, the Buffaloes got a shot. On top of Walker, the Buffaloes have a dangerous veteran forward in Evan Battey (12.2 points & 4.5 rebounds) who can heat up from deep. The Buffaloes are also the other Pac-12 team to beat Arizona, defeating them 79-63 in Boulder. They’re a team that could find lighting in a bottle and run the table at T-Mobile arena.
As for Washington State, they’re coming in hot having won three games in a row over Oregon State (twice) and Oregon. Granted the two wins over Oregon State were close, but they followed up with a dominating win over Oregon to close the regular season out. This also isn’t the longest winning streak they’ve had in league. They had a five game winning streak earlier in the season over Cal (twice), Utah, Colorado, and Stanford. So, they know how to win multiple games in a row. Michael Flowers (14.2 points) is a guard who can heat up and he’s got a solid supporting cast around him. They are a team that could do some damage and by being the #7 seed, they wouldn’t see Arizona until the final.
Really needs to catch fire: Oregon, Washington, Arizona State, and Stanford-This is a larger group, so I’ll need to be briefer. All of these are teams who while being long shots have the talent and pieces to possibly win the tournament if the stars align. I would be shocked if any of them won it, but I do think a possible universe exists where one of them wins the tournament.
Starting with Oregon, had they not lost Will Richardson for the tournament, I may have bumped them up in the “Dark horse” category. But with him out, that’s a major blow to their chances. They’re really going to need Jacob Young (11.5 points) and De’Vion Harmon (10.9 points) to go off.
With Washington it’s quite simple: Terrell Brown, Jr. (21.7 points) is the top scorer in the league and when you have the top scorer in the league, you got a chance.
As for Arizona State, they’ve won four games in a row over Colorado, Utah, Cal, and Stanford. They’re on quite a roll and hope to pick up a fifth win in a row over Stanford, who they beat on Saturday. The main thing Arizona State has going for them is depth. They got five players scoring in double figures on average: DJ Horne (12.2 points), Jay Heath (10.5 points), Marreon Jackson (10.3 points), Kimani Lawrence (10.2 points), and Jalen Graham (10.1 points). So, they got weapons and balance. That’s always nice to have.
Bringing up the rear in this category is Stanford: Honestly, they’re getting close to the “Not gonna happen” category given that they’ve lost five games in a row. The reason why they remain in this tier is simply the talent they have. They have the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year on their roster in Harrison Ingram, they got shooters in Spencer Jones and Brandon Angel, and they did seem to get a bit of their mojo back this past weekend. Michael O’Connell was coming on strong. The also swept USC this season and have shown they can hang with really good teams. Maybe they find magic in Vegas.
Not gonna happen: Cal and Utah-These just don’t have the talent to win the Pac-12 tournament. That’s what this all boils down to. Cal has won just five league games while Utah has won just four.
Cal is without their best player Andre Kelly and while Jordan Shepherd and Grant Anticevich heating up could win them a game along with some stingy defense, there’s simply no way they’re winning four games in a row in this tournament.
Utah has one player scoring in double figures on average and that’s their big man Branden Carlson, who is averaging 13.6 points per game. That’s it. They just don’t have the pieces right now. But hey, like Cal, the possibility of winning one game is there.
LOL: Oregon State-Oregon State deserves to be in a category all by themselves. They’ve been absolutely putrid this season: 3-27 overall and 1-19 in Pac-12 play. As bad as Cal and Utah were this season, they don’t deserve to be in the same category as Oregon State. It’ll be an absolute shock if they win one game in this tournament. And what’s even more shocking is they were in the Elite Eight last year and are the defending Pac-12 tournament champions. Talk about a nosedive.
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