There is a conflict in Stanford's current standing as D1baseball.com's No. 2 national ranking and the projection released today that the Cardinal (32-7, 15-3 and first in the Pac-12) are headed toward a No. 10 overall seed for the postseason.
Why the disparity? It's probably because Stanford begins a four week stretch that could prove increasingly difficult to navigate while remaining atop the conference. (Stanford has one less loss than Oregon State and UCLA but has played three fewer conference games.) Stanford is at USC this weekend for a three-game series against a Trojans squad that is capable of beating good teams (Arkansas, UCLA, ASU twice).
That series is followed by a trip across the bay to play rival Cal (May 10-12), projected to be a three seed in a region in the field of 64. Then the grand finale: current No. 3 Oregon State (May 17-19) at home and No. 22 ASU (May 23-25) at their home run derby stadium.
Buckle up, Cardinal fans. Here is an analysis of the Cardinal as it stands at base camp of this final regular season climb.
Chicks dig the long ball
Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux discovered in a famous ad in the 90s that while pitching at a Hall of Fame level is fun, it's home runs that cause fans to jump out of their seats and managers sigh in relief.
The Cardinal have hit 32 home runs in 18 conference games and 55 overall after Brandon Wulff and Kyle Stowers sent moon-scrapers beyond the fences at Santa Clara Tuesday. Only ASU (33) has more home runs in the Pac-12 and the Sun Devils have played three more games. (Also, as soon as the sun sets on Sunken Diamond it usually becomes a much more difficult venue to hit home runs.)
Stanford has hit an absurd 25 home runs and scored 92 runs in the past eight games.
Wullf is on a tear that is terrifying opposing Pac-12 pitchers: 10 home runs, 19 RBI, 26 runs scored and a .469 OBP in league. His 16 total home runs is one off Andrew Daschbach's team-leading mark of 17 last year and within reach of Sean Ratliff's 22 in 2008. (That 2008 squad was the last to reach Omaha and did so with an offense carried by home runs.)
Speaking of Daschbach, he leads the team with a .414 BA in league, has hit six home runs, eight doubles and has 17 RBI.
Of course, with hits leaving the yard at at an exciting pace it can trap even a seasoned pro into thinking that can happen every at-bat. Head coach David Esquer was confident Sunday that won't be an issue with the Cardinal.
"Big part of it is us to continue to get good at what we do," he said. "We're not capable of hitting a home run every at-bat, so we can't try. They're coming, and sometimes they come in bunches, but they can't be the focus of what we do. It has to be the result of good, square contact and getting good pitches to hit."
Get Grech and Palisch back on track
ERA is almost a relic of baseball stats at this point, but it can offer a quick snapshot of a pitcher/staff's effectiveness and among Stanford's regulars there are two outliers: Zach Grech (4.56) and Jacob Palisch (5.49).
Neither had the beginning or middle of the season that they hoped for before it started. Palisch was moved from Saturday starter back to the bullpen, where he excelled last season as a freshman, and Grech has suffered several rough outings.
Esquer and pitching coach Thomas Eager are trying to get them as many opportunities to pitch as possible leading up to the postseason.
On Sunday Esquer said hitters are "too comfortable" against Palisch right now.
"I think there are a couple things we see that if he does a bit better -- his arm stroke looks a little too predictable and easy to rhythm up. Last year he was a little herky-jerky and I thought that kind of helped him. Now he is more smoothed out."
Grech made several changes to his delivery during the offseason and, in a not uncommon development in baseball, is going back to what's more familiar to be successful. He had a clean outing Sunday that included a double-play grounder from the submariner.
"That was the old Grech," Esquer said. "He went back to his old delivery and his old set. He kind of modified it. I thought that was the old Grech."
Will Matthiessen is Stanford's most important player
The lanky junior has been Stanford's most productive hitter all season. He anchored the middle of the lineup when everyone else around him were finding their footing. He leads the team with 37 RBI and 52 hits.
Saturday he got his fourth win of the season on the mound: five IP, five strikeouts, two earned runs and two walks. As important as Matthiessen is to Stanford in the batter's box he has become even more so as a pitcher.
If he falters there then Stanford's rotation becomes a problem in a hurry because there is not another obvious option.
"He's doing great," Esquer said. "Not too many people have those types of games when they perform offensively and on the mound like that. He's a special player and we're glad to have him on our side."