For the first time since 2006, Stanford football has an 0-3 start to conference play. The 2006 Cardinal squad went 1-11, ending the short-lived Walt Harris era after just two seasons: a team that went up in flames like the city of San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake. Their lone win was a 20-3 victory at Washington in November, preventing Stanford from both a winless overall and winless conference season.
That 2006 Stanford team had some pretty spectacular losses: A 48-10 loss at #21 Oregon, a 35-34 loss at San Jose State, a 37-9 home loss to Navy, two shut out losses at UCLA (31-0) and at home against #9 USC (42-0), a 38-3 loss at Arizona State, a 20-7 home loss to Arizona, a 30-7 loss at home to Oregon State, a 36-10 home loss to Washington State, a 31-10 loss at #12 Notre Dame, and to cap it all off, a 26-17 Big Game loss at #20 Cal.
The 2022 Stanford team obviously does not want to be mentioned in the same sentence as the 2006 team and yet here we are. While this year’s Stanford team is also off to an 0-3 start in conference play, they do have a chance to avoid the same fate as that ’06 team. What I’m going to do is breakdown the rest of their schedule based on “must-winnability” with five wins being deemed a salvaged season. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Just don’t get destroyed: In this category, I have the game at Utah on November 12th. Utah is #11 in the nation right now with their lone loss being their season-opener on the road at Florida. Utah blew the doors off Oregon State 42-16 at home on Saturday. Last season on The Farm, Utah rocked Stanford’s world 52-7. Given how Stanford has started this season, there’s no reason to expect them to win at Utah this season. If Stanford can just avoid getting embarrassed and play within 21 points, that would be considered progress from what happened last year.
Pull a rabbit out of a hat: In the following group of games, Stanford needs to pull a rabbit out of a hat at least once: at Notre Dame, at UCLA, or at home against BYU.
Notre Dame looked vulnerable against Cal as the Bears had a Hail Mary almost go their way to force overtime (24-17). The Irish are 2-2 right now with losses at Ohio State (21-10) and at home against Marshall (26-21). Their other win is a 45-32 victory at North Carolina. Winning in South Bend won’t be easy for Stanford, but it’s a game that they should feel is winnable all the same.
UCLA is 5-0 right now with an impressive 40-32 victory against Washington this weekend. At the moment, they look like a team that is certain to beat Stanford. However, that game is a few weeks away on October 29th, which means Stanford has some time to figure things out. If Stanford can go into that game coming off a win against Arizona State at home, maybe they’ll be able to work some magic on the Bruins’ home field.
BYU is the final game of year for Stanford and it is at home. BYU is a hard team to read right now. They are 4-1, but their lone loss is at Oregon, where they lost 41-20. A pretty similar result to what Stanford had this weekend. This game feels the most winnable of all the games in this category both because Stanford has the maximum amount of time to improve and also the fact that it’s at home. This could also be a game where a 5-7 season is on the line, creating an extra sense of urgency.
Get a split: Stanford needs to get a split at home between Oregon State on October 8th and Washington State on November 5th. Oregon State is 3-2 overall and 0-2 in the Pac-12 while Washington State is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the Pac-12. Neither team is ranked right now, though Washington State is knocking on the door with the most votes of any non-ranked team in the latest AP Top 25 poll.
Of these two games, Oregon State is looking like the more winnable game, so there’s a fair amount of pressure riding on this Saturday’s game. If Stanford doesn’t beat the Beavers on Saturday, then the November 5th game against Washington State in effect becomes a “must-win” game.
Must win: The lone school in the classic “must-win” category is Cal. Stanford has to beat Cal in Berkeley. Cal is looking vulnerable after getting rolled 28-9 at Washington State this weekend. Cal is 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the Pac-12, but their wins have only come against Arizona, UNLV, and UC Davis. If Stanford had played the same schedule, they very well might be 3-2 as well. So Cal is in no position to crow at Stanford at the moment.
In truth, it really feels like a “must-win” game for both programs. Whichever team loses the Big Game will need to do some serious soul-searching at an absolute minimum.
Shut it down, let’s go home: Whatever happens this year, Stanford cannot lose to Arizona State. The Sun Devils fired Herman Edwards during the season and are a program that is off the rails right now. Stanford will be facing Arizona State at home and it will be on October 22nd, so Stanford also has some time to get some things figured out for this game. If Stanford loses to the Sun Devils, they should just put a fork in the whole season and seriously think about blowing the whole program up. We’re talking more than just classic “soul-searching” if they lose this game.
Conclusion: The bottom line is if Stanford takes care of business in each of the categories assigned, they’ll finish the year 5-7. It feels like a tall order right now, but it’s not impossible. If you want to simplify things a bit, the Cal and Arizona State games are must-win games and from there, Stanford has to find a way to win two more games. It ultimately doesn’t matter how that happens as long as they find a way to get to 5-7. The most ideal situation would be for them to enter the BYU game 5-6, but I think in truth, the most hopeful outlook I can provide is that Stanford finds a way to enter that game 4-7 with the hopes of pulling a rabbit out of their hat on the last try.
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