Assessing Stanford’s chances to win the Pac-12 North entering UCLA week
In the Pac-12 pre-season media poll, Stanford was picked to finish 4th in the Pac-12 North behind Oregon, Washington, and Cal with 137 points. USC (223 points), Utah (183 points), and Arizona State (170 points) in the Pac-12 South also received more points than Stanford. So, across both divisions, Stanford was picked to finish 7th overall in the Pac-12 right ahead of UCLA who was picked to finish 4th in the Pac-12 South with 135 points.
Why Stanford was picked where they were mostly revolved around the fact that the quarterback position appeared questionable. If the media could have seen how Tanner McKee would perform as the starter in his first two career starts at USC and at Vanderbilt, my guess is they would have given Stanford a lot more love than they did. With this in mind, I would like to assess Stanford’s chances of winning the Pac-12 North entering UCLA week and what we can expect from them going forward the rest of the way.
In the spirit of one of my all-time favorite sportswriters Woody Paige, I want to start by looking at Stanford’s remaining schedule:
Saturday-September 25 vs. #24 UCLA (2-1, 0-0)
Saturday-October 2 vs. #3 Oregon (3-0, 0-0)
Friday-October 8 at Arizona State (2-1, 0-0)
Saturday-October 16 at Washington State (1-2, 0-1)
Saturday-October 30 vs. Washington (1-2, 0-0)
Friday-November 5 vs. Utah (1-2, 0-0)
Saturday-November 13 at Oregon State (2-1, 0-0)
Saturday-November 20 vs. Cal (1-2, 0-0)
Saturday-November 27 vs. #12 Notre Dame (3-0).
Without giving too much of my UCLA preview away, the Bruins on paper will not be an easy team for Stanford to beat on Saturday. They blew the doors off Hawaii 44-10, defeated LSU rather soundly 38-27, and lost a heartbreaking game to Fresno State by a final score of 40-37 this past weekend. Fresno State played Oregon really tough, losing 24-31. So Fresno State is actually really good and has been rewarded with a spot in the AP Top 25. UCLA still should have beaten the Bulldogs, but it’s not that bad of a loss when you consider the fact that Fresno State is now a ranked team.
I think what has to give Stanford confidence against UCLA is the fact that the game will be on The Farm. If the game were at UCLA, the Bruins would probably be favored. But with this being Stanford’s first home game of the season, emotions will be high and Stanford will not want to disappoint their home crowd. Stanford absolutely has the pieces to beat UCLA (something I’ll address more in-depth later on in the week) and considering that they themselves are knocking on the door of the AP Top 25, we’re likely looking at a Vegas spread that is in pick’em territory and when a game is truly a toss-up, I have to give the advantage to the home team. Stanford by 1.0 is a spread that feels right to me. Maybe this game will feature Josh Karty’s first career game winning field goal.
#3 Oregon is going to be tough. After escaping with a win against a very sound Fresno State team, they knocked off #3 Ohio State on the road 35-28 before heading back home to whoop on Stony Brook 48-7. Assuming Oregon proceeds to beat Arizona at home this upcoming weekend, they’ll head to the Farm with a 4-0 record and a top five ranking.
Oregon is without a doubt going to be favored, but when you consider that their wins over Fresno State and Ohio State were both by a touchdown, I don’t know if we’ll see a Vegas spread line in the double digits. Especially with this game being played at Stanford. Oregon by 9.5 feels like a pretty safe bet for what Vegas will be thinking. Oregon should win, but if Stanford can continue on their trajectory of steady improvement, we could see a Stanford upset.
Arizona State could be tough given it’s a road game, but Stanford is used to playing away from Palo Alto. Arizona State was ranked at the beginning of the year and started off 2-0 with wins over Southern Utah (41-14) and UNLV (37-10), getting ranked as high as #19. However, they fell out of the AP Top 25 following their 17-27 loss at BYU on Saturday. Things got a bit interesting in the 4th quarter in Provo, but BYU proved to be the better team, dominating Arizona State for much of the night.
This game at the moment smells like a pick’em with Arizona State perhaps being slightly favored. If I had to hazard a guess for a point spread, I would guess Arizona State by 3.0. The Sun Devils should win this game since they’re at home, but given the Cardinal’s success away from home, nobody should be surprised if they pull off another road win. Especially if Karty can come up clutch.
Washington State shouldn’t be overlooked given that the game is in Pullman. Pullman is one of the hardest places to get a win in the Pac-12 and even when Washington State is bad, they’re not easy to beat up there.
That all said, Stanford will likely be favored to win this game, but I don’t think they’ll be favored by as much as Stanford fans would hope. Stanford by 4.5 feels good to me. This is another game where Karty’s leg could make the difference.
At the beginning of the year, Washington looked like a formidable opponent and this was one of those games that a lot of Stanford fans had circled on their calendars as a tough game. After the rather pathetic 1-2 start the Huskies have had, that’s no longer the case. Washington lost 7-13 at home to Montana in their home opener before losing 10-31 to #19 Michigan at The Big House in Ann Arbor. Washington did avoid an 0-3 start by defeating Arkansas State 52-3, but that’s hardly a win to beat your chest about.
This Washington team simply isn’t as good as everyone thought they were going to be and at the moment, this is looking like a game Stanford should win and win comfortably. I think this will be the first game Stanford is favored by double digits. Figuring out double digits spreads is always tough because you’re starting to enter blowout territory, but Stanford by 14.5 sounds right to me.
Utah at home is a game that Stanford should feel comfortable about winning. After starting off the season ranked, Utah’s season has gone in the wrong direction. They won their opener against Weber State 40-17 but are presently on a two game losing streak losing to BYU (17-26) and San Diego State (31-33). Both games were on the road and the San Diego State game went to triple overtime, so there’s a little bit of compassion there. But still, Utah is not looking like the ranked team everyone expected them to be.
Utah’s one of those teams where I could maybe see them getting their act together by the end of the year, but nonetheless, Stanford should win this game. Stanford by 6.5 is how I’d hedge things at the moment.
Oregon State lost their opening game at Purdue by a final score of 21-30. That’s not looking like a bad loss when you consider how Purdue played against #12 Notre Dame on Saturday. Notre Dame won 27-13 but entering the 4th quarter it was a 17-13 lead for Notre Dame. Purdue was hanging right in there and made Notre Dame work for that win. The fact that Oregon State went on the road to Purdue and didn’t get blown out speaks well of them, I think. Following their loss to Purdue, Oregon State took care of business against Hawaii (45-27) and Idaho (42-0). Both games were in Corvallis.
Given that Stanford was picked ahead of Oregon State rather convincingly in the pre-season media poll, Stanford should be favored to win this game, though I should stress, the media poll isn’t looking all that reliable. That all said, Stanford by 11.5 feels like a good prediction. I could see this game going in a similar fashion to the Vanderbilt game.
Stanford’s final Pac-12 game will be The Big Game at home against Cal. The Golden Bears were picked ahead of the Cardinal in the Pac-12 media poll, but if the media could vote all over again, that would no longer be the case. Cal lost their first game of the season at home to Nevada by a final score of 17-22 and then went into Fort Worth and lost at TCU by a final score of 32-34. This past weekend, Cal won their first game of the year against Sacramento State by a final score of 42-30. After taking a 21-6 lead into the half, Cal got outscored 24-21 by Sacramento State, resulting in a final score that was much closer than expected. To say the least, things are not looking too pretty in Berkeley right now.
Stanford once again projects to be favored in The Big Game. Tanner McKee should be able to carve up the Bears’ defense while Kyu Blu Kelly can be counted on to get at least one interception off Chase Garbers. Stanford by 14.0 is my current projection.
The Notre Dame game has no bearing on the Pac-12 standings, but for completeness, I’ll quickly touch on this one. Despite their #12 ranking, the Fighting Irish do appear vulnerable. They barely beat Florida State 41-38 in overtime on the road, they barely beat Toledo 32-29 at home, and then to their credit, they defeated Purdue more soundly this past weekend 27-13 at home.
Florida State is now 0-3, most recently getting waxed 14-35 at Wake Forest. Toledo is now 1-2, most recently getting throttled 6-22 against Colorado State at home. Purdue may end up being ok, but it’s kinda hard to know how good they’re going to be.
Notre Dame right now looks vulnerable and unlikely to head into Palo Alto with an undefeated record. Games against #18 Wisconsin (neutral site) and #8 Cincinnati (home) both look like losses right now. Virginia Tech who is receiving love in the AP Top 25 poll but not ranked at the moment could be another loss in Blacksburg as well. I won’t go down the rest of the Notre Dame schedule and go off on a tangent, but the bottom line is Stanford might not only beat Notre Dame, they actually might also be favored to beat Notre Dame going into that week.
It's really tough to project a point spread for this one at the moment, but I’m not going to leave you all hanging on the last game! I’m going to say Notre Dame drops at least two games before coming to Stanford and won’t be ranked when they arrive in Palo Alto. Stanford by 1.5 is my current prediction.
If Stanford performs on target with my projections, they’ll go 9-3 overall and 7-2 in the Pac-12. Their two losses being to Arizona State (-3.0) and Oregon (-9.5). If they are able to secure the Arizona State game, then we’re looking at a situation where the October 2nd home game against Oregon in essence is for all the marbles. At least as far as the Pac-12 North is concerned. If Stanford wins that game, then they’ll be in the driver’s seat to win the division and play in the Pac-12 championship game.
At the beginning of the season, talk of Stanford winning the Pac-12 North sounded like a pipe dream. But now, with the emergence of Tanner McKee and a Pac-12 North that looks very vulnerable aside from Oregon, Stanford has to be feeling optimistic about the rest of this season. If they can knock off the Ducks and pull out some tight wins, they could be staring a Pac-12 championship in the face come December.