On Saturday at 3:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks and KNBR Radio, Stanford football will welcome #24 UCLA to The Farm. Stanford comes in at 2-1 overall and 1-0 in Pac-12 play while UCLA comes in at 2-1 overall. This will be UCLA’s first Pac-12 game.
Last time out: Last week, Stanford defeated Vanderbilt 41-23 in Nashville. Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee led the way going 19-29 for 218 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.
RECAP: Stanford vanquishes Vanderbilt
Key Stanford notes: Stanford fully expects to have defensive end/tight end Tucker Fisk back. He is listed as probable. Cornerbacks Ethan Bonner and Zahran Manley were listed as questionable earlier in the week but leaning towards doubtful. And then the following players will be out: Running backs Austin Jones, Casey Filkins, E.J. Smith, tight end Benjamin Yurosek, and safety Noah Williams.
This will be Stanford’s first home game of the season after playing the first three games away from Palo Alto. Stanford also played their last four games of last season away. The Colorado game was the only home game they played.
On UCLA: UCLA remains ranked despite losing to Fresno State last week in a wild 40-37 arena football style game at home. That’s largely due to the fact that everyone thinks Fresno State is just really good. Fresno State is now ranked in the top 25 themselves, getting the love they deserve.
UCLA senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is having a fantastic season for the Bruins. Through three games he’s gone 33-60 for 668 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. On the ground he’s rushed for 88 yards on 29 attempts, so he does look to use his legs as well if he can.
UCLA has a really good running game led by junior running back Zach Charbonnet and senior running back Brittain Brown. Charbonnet has rushed for 242 yards and 6 touchdowns on 23 carries for a whopping 10.5 yards per carry while Brown has rushed for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns for a more modest but still solid 5.1 yards per carry. Brown also has caught two touchdown passes so that’s four total touchdowns for him on the year.
UCLA’s top wide receiver is junior Kyle Philips. He has 11 receptions for 174 yards and 3 touchdowns. Junior tight end Greg Dulcich is dangerous as he has 132 receiving yards and 1 touchdown despite just 4 receptions. He’ll be another guy who Stanford’s defense needs to keep an eye on.
As a whole, UCLA’s offense appears to be more of a running oriented team, but they do have the capability to make people pay in the air as well. Like all Chip Kelly coached teams, UCLA’s offense is dangerous and multi-faceted, so it really will require full attention from Stanford’s defense to slow them down.
As far UCLA’s defense is concerned, opponents are scoring 25.7 points per game and as Fresno State showed last week, the ability to score points on the Bruins is definitely doable. UCLA’s defense has totaled 7 sacks on the year, so they know how to put pressure on the quarterback. They’ve also had 4 interceptions, so they’ve done a decent job at picking off quarterbacks as well.
Keys to the game:
For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is contain UCLA’s running game. The Bruins’ rushing attack will look to gain a lot of yards on Stanford’s defense and that’s been a weak spot for Stanford at times this year. Giving up the big play. If Stanford’s defense can prevent big plays and keep the UCLA running game contained, that will be huge towards securing a Cardinal victory.
The second thing Stanford needs is for Nathaniel Peat to have a huge game. He’s essentially the only running back left standing and he’s going to have to carry the load in the backfield. If he has a huge game and rushes for at least 110 yards, Stanford’s run game will have done its job. It really is critical that he gets going and is able to find the end zone or at least set Stanford up for some scoring opportunities in the red zone.
The third thing Stanford needs is for Tanner McKee to continue to be what he’s been. If he’s able to find open guys and get the most out of his receivers, they’ll give themselves a chance to win. He doesn’t need to go wild and have a career day statistically. But, he does need to move the ball efficiently and most importantly not turn the ball over. If McKee throws 0 interceptions and has 0 fumbles lost, that will go a long way towards getting Stanford a win over UCLA.
Finally, Stanford’s defense needs to make things as tough on Thompson-Robinson as possible. They can’t let him go off with his legs and their secondary needs to make things tough on him as well. Kyu Blu Kelly and Jimmy Wyrick will need to be big in the secondary. Hopefully one of those guys will be able to get an interception and/or force a turnover. If that happens, that could shift things in Stanford’s favor.
Prediction: This is a tough game to predict given that Stanford is at home, but they have so many key guys out. I did hedge things as Stanford by 1.0 earlier in the week and that still feels right to me. I feel no need to back away from that prediction. So I’m going to say Stanford wins 38-37 in a wild game that may or may not feature a game winning kick from Josh Karty. The home field advantage I do think will make a difference here. Just all the emotion of returning to The Farm and all the good vibes that come with that.
