On Thursday at 6:30 PM PT on ESPN and Varsity Network radio, #6 Stanford women’s basketball will take on #17 Arizona on the road in Tucson. Stanford comes in at 22-3 overall and 10-2 in the Pac-12 while Arizona comes in at 18-5 overall and 8-4 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Sunday, Stanford fell to Washington in Seattle by a final score of 72-67. As a result, Stanford fell to #6 in the latest AP Top 25 rankings.
RECAP: #2 Stanford WBB slips in Seattle
On Arizona: The Wildcats are having a very solid season as a team ranked in the top 20. That said, they do have higher aspirations than to simply be a ranked team. They see themselves as a program that should be competing for national titles. They’ve been pretty consistent both at home and away. They are 9-2 at home, 7-3 on the road, and then 2-0 in neutral site games.
Their worst loss of the season was a 77-50 loss at home to Kansas back in December. Kansas is not ranked in the top-25 and aren’t even receiving any votes, so that loss was pretty bad for them. Outside of that though, they’ve been pretty solid and done a nice job of bouncing back with wins over Baylor, Oregon, and UCLA. UCLA is currently ranked #18, so that win is the best of the bunch.
The Wildcats have really balanced scoring at the top with fifth-year forward Cate Reese (12.9 points & 6.5 rebounds), fifth-year guard Shaina Pellington (12.5 points), fifth-year guard Jade Loville (12.1 points), and senior forward Esmery Martinez (11.0 points & 8.8 rebounds) all scoring in double figures. Nobody else on the team averages above 7 points per game, so there’s a real drop off after those four.
As a team, the Wildcats average 76.5 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field, 35.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 67.2% shooting from the foul line. They average 37.3 rebounds, 15.3 assists, 11.4 steals, 3.2 blocks, and 12.3 turnovers per game. They also average a +1.2 rebounding margin and a +6.8 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 63.7 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field, 31.3% shooting from 3-point range, and 68.0% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford the first thing they need to do is take care of the ball. Arizona does a great job of forcing turnovers and winning the turnover battle. This has been an issue for Stanford at times this season and is a reason why Washington was able to pull off the upset on Sunday. If Stanford takes care of the ball and limits their turnovers, that’ll go a long way towards getting the win.
As an extension of this, Stanford just needs to play poised in general. This is why they miss the Hull twins and Anna Wilson so much. Stanford has struggled to make good inbounds passes under pressure, etc. This is a great game for them to bounce back in and show that they are capable of much more even with those players now gone.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is dominate the glass. Stanford won the rebounding battle decisively in their last meeting with the Wildcats this season (53-35). That was a major reason why Stanford went on to win (73-57). If Stanford wins the rebounding battle as decisively as they did in their first meeting, I like their chances to come out on top again.
Finally, Stanford needs to hold their own in the free throw department. In their first meeting of the season at Maples, Arizona shot 7-9 at the foul line while Stanford shot 20-34. A major reason why Stanford won that game is because they got to the foul line more. Home teams typically get to the foul line more. It’s part of the nature of the game. If Stanford can find a way to get to the line at a healthy clip and not allow Arizona to have too many more foul shot attempts than them, that more than anything could make the difference.
Prediction: Arizona is at home and they’re ranked. Stanford lost their previous game on the road to an unranked team. Plus, Arizona will have blood in their eye to avenge their loss at Maples Pavilion and get even with Stanford with the game being in Tucson. When you consider all that, it makes sense to pick the Wildcats in this game.
That being said, I’m reminded of what Utah head coach Lynne Roberts said earlier this year after her team lost to Stanford: “I’ve been joking all week that the saying of ‘Hell has no fury like a woman’s scorn’, but Hell knows no fury like Tara after a loss, either.”
Roberts’ team had the misfortune of playing Stanford after they lost at USC and Arizona now gets to face a Stanford team coming off a loss as well. Stanford will not want to lose back-to-back games and Tara VanDerveer is going to have her team ready to go in this one. I got the Tara effect making the difference tonight. Stanford 70 Arizona 65 is how I see this one playing out.
To connect with CardinalSportsReport.com on Facebook and Twitter, click here.
To connect with Ben Parker on Facebook and Twitter, click here.
Email: slamdunk406@yahoo.com
