On Sunday, Stanford softball found out their NCAA Tournament fate, getting a No. 9 national seed. This means that they are guaranteed to host a regional, but they are not guaranteed to host a super regional. Only the top eight seeds are guaranteed home field advantage through both the regional and super regional rounds.
Stanford (40-13) will open up against Long Beach State (31-21) with Loyola Marymount (27-20) and Florida (36-20) as the other two teams in their regional. Stanford will face Long Beach State on Friday at 6:00 PM PT on ESPNU while Florida and LMU will face off earlier in the day at 3:00 PM PT on ESPN+.
Last time out: Stanford fell to UCLA 1-0 in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament.
RECAP: #8 Stanford SB falls to #2 UCLA in Pac-12 Tournament semis
Tournament format: For those who need a refresher on the regional format, the bracket is here. As you can see by looking at the bracket, it is a double elimination format. But for those that are still confused even after looking at the bracket (which is totally understandable), here is what happens:
The winners of the first two games advance to the winners bracket while the losing teams go to the losers bracket. The winner of the winners bracket game will advance to the championship while the loser of the winners bracket game will face the winner of the losers bracket game while the loser of the losers bracket game is eliminated. In the game between the loser of the winners bracket game and the winner of the losers bracket game, the winner will advance to the championship while the loser is eliminated. This sets up a situation where whoever has advanced to the championship game without losing a game has to get beaten twice while the team that advanced by coming out of the consolation side is eliminated with one more loss. Hence the double elimination. That’s why Game 7 is listed as only if necessary.
Hopefully that explanation helps. If it’s still not clear, you can simply fill out your own bracket and it will become clear of what happens. That’s what I did to make sure I explained the format correctly.
Keys to the regional: Going back to Stanford, they should be kicking themselves for not getting a top eight seed. Had they taken care of business in the home series against Washington, they probably would have gotten a top eight seed. They now have to hope that if they can win their regional, No. 8 Duke won’t be waiting on the other side. Otherwise, they’ll have to go to Durham for their super regional.
If Stanford is going to win their regional this weekend, they’re going to need the pitching to be lights out and then they’re also going to have to generate some offense. NiJaree Canady (0.49 ERA), Alana Vawter (1.85 ERA), and Regan Krause (2.21 ERA) have been a fantastic pitching trio for the Cardinal all season long. The problem has been on the offensive side and more specifically, the power side. Nobody on the team has hit double digit home runs this season, so to say the least, power has been lacking.
The one batter who probably would be in double digits had she played the entire season and not started on the bench is Kylie Chung. In 37 at-bats, she has four home runs, which is the best home run pace of anyone on the team, hitting a home run in every 9.25 at-bats. If she had 130 at bats on the season and if she kept at that pace, she’d have 14 home runs on the season. If Stanford wants to get any power this weekend, they’re going to need Chung to come up big, just like she did in their victory over Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament.
In addition to getting some power, Stanford is just going to have to string together good at-bats. When runners get in scoring position, they have to bring runners home. Taylor Gindlesperger has done a great job of getting in scoring position all season long, but too often she has been left stranded on second or third base.
Finally, Stanford needs to play clean softball this weekend. Fielding errors cost them the game against UCLA. And even though one of them was a call that would have been overturned, you still can’t bobble routine catches that would get runners out. You need to field ground balls cleanly and make crisp throws. If Stanford shores that up, they should be fine.
Prediction: I’m going to pick Stanford to win the regional this weekend. I think their pitching will make things really tough on their opponents and I also expect their offense to generate enough runs. That said, if you are Florida, LMU, or Long Beach State, you have to smell an opportunity. Any time you are facing a team that is really struggling in either hitting or pitching, you have to like your chances to pull off the upset. It’ll be interesting to see what happens.
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