On Saturday at 7:00 PM PT on ESPN2, Stanford men’s basketball will welcome Cal to Maples Pavilion. Stanford comes in at 16-10 overall and 8-7 in the ACC while Cal comes in at 12-14 overall and 5-10 in the ACC.
Last time out: Last week, Stanford fell to No. 3 Duke on the road by a final score of 106-70.
RECAP: Stanford MBB gets crushed by No. 3 Duke at Cameron
On Cal: The Golden Bears haven’t had a great season, especially on the road where they are 2-8. That said, they did play Duke tougher than Stanford as they lost 78-57 and they also took Georgia Tech to overtime whereas Stanford lost in regulation. So they actually had a better road trip last week than Stanford even though they lost both games as well.
Cal has had a couple of frustrating home losses to Syracuse and Cornell as well as their loss to Stanford earlier in the season, but they do seem to be playing hard from the games I’ve been able to watch.
The Bears are led by sophomore guard Andrej Stojakovic (17.7 points & 4.3 rebounds) and freshman guard Jeremiah Wilkinson (14.5 points). Both guards are playing great and capable of putting up a lot of points, doing a great job at the foul line, shooting north of 80%. Graduate student guard Jovan Blacksher Jr. is also scoring in double figures on average with 10.5 points per game.
As at team, the Bears average 74.7 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field, 32.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.6% shooting from the foul line. They average 36.8 rebounds, 10.7 assists, 5.8 steals, 3.7 blocks, and 11.5 turnovers per game. They also average a +2.5 rebound margin and a -0.6 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 75.7 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field, 37.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.5% from the foul line.
Keys to the game: The first thing Stanford needs to do is keep Stojakovic away from the foul line. While he struggled at the foul line as a freshman at Stanford, Stojakovic is now shooting 82.9% from the foul line and he averages 5.6 foul shots per game. That means he gets around four points per game at the foul line alone. If Stanford can keep him away from the foul line, that would go a long ways towards winning this game.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is defend the perimeter. Cal has guys who can hit threes in Stojakovic, Wilkinson, and Blacksher. As long as Stanford defends the perimeter well and doesn’t allow Cal to get cooking from deep, they should be in a good spot.
Finally, Stanford needs to feed Maxime Raynaud. He’s averaging 19.9 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. If Stanford gets him going inside and he has a monster performance, I don’t see how Cal wins this one.
Prediction: I think Cal will actually play Stanford pretty tough. Stojakovic and Wilkinson are both really good and have been playing well lately. I still gotta roll with Stanford since they are at home, but I got this being a single digit game: Stanford 78 Cal 70 is how I see this one shaking out.
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