On New Year’s Eve at 1:00 PM PT on Pac-12 Networks, Stanford men’s basketball will welcome #4 Arizona to Maples Pavilion. Stanford comes in at 5-6 overall and 0-1 in the Pac-12 while Arizona comes in at 10-2 overall and 1-0 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Friday, Stanford fell to Arizona State by a final score of 76-73. Stanford led or was tied for all but the final 30 seconds of the game.
RECAP: Stanford MBB crumbles against Arizona State
On Arizona: The Wildcats are off to a really strong start, hence their top-five ranking. Their only two losses are to #3 Purdue (84-92) and #14 Florida Atlantic (95-96). The loss to Florida Atlantic was in double overtime in Las Vegas. Which was basically a home game for Arizona given how good their fans travel. In their most recent outing, they defeated Cal in Berkeley by a final score of 100-81.
The Wildcats are led by senior guard Caleb Love, who is averaging 16.9 points and 5.2 rebounds per game on 41.2% shooting from the field, 33.3% shooting from 3-point range, and 86.5% shooting from the foul line. The number two option is redshirt senior center Oumar Ballo, who is averaging 13.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Ballo is a load inside and is very difficult to contain in the post. Senior guard Pelle Larsson (12.6 points), senior forward Keshad Johnson (12.3 points), and sophomore guard Kylan Boswell (11.4 points) are scoring in double figures as well.
As a team, the Wildcats average 93.2 points per game on 50.1% shooting from the field, 37.1% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.0% shooting from the foul line. They average 45.0 rebounds, 20.5 assists, 9.7 steals, 3.7 blocks, and 12.9 turnovers per game. They also average a +14.3 rebound margin and a +2.1 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 71.2 points per game on 41.0% shooting from the field, 31.8% shooting from 3-point range, and 66.8% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is find a way to hold their own on the glass. Arizona is a terrific rebounding team. Stanford has to make sure they don’t get dominated inside while allowing Arizona to rebound at will. Containing Ballo is obviously a big part of that equation.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is get to the foul line and make their foul shots. They shot 3-7 against Arizona State on Friday. A bad percentage and far too few attempts. They have to get to the foul line a lot more in this game and also make their foul shots. They can’t just rely on the 3-ball to save them.
Finally, Stanford has to take good care of the ball. Arizona feeds off turnovers and will look to speed up Stanford and force them to make bad decisions with the ball. If Stanford wins the turnover battle or even plays Arizona to a draw in that area, that would be huge. Stanford has the tendency to sometimes force bad passes and they can’t do that against the Wildcats.
Prediction: I got Arizona winning by a final score of 85-70. Stanford did knock off Arizona last year at home after losing to Arizona State. I remember years back, Cal knocked off #1 Arizona off a buzzer beater by Justin Cobbs and they too fell to Arizona State in the game before. So, I’ve seen teams beat Arizona after falling to Arizona State. I just don’t see it happening this time.
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