This weekend, #4 Stanford baseball will take on the Arizona Wildcats in their final homestand of the regular season. Game one will be on Friday at 5:35 PM PT. Game two will be on Saturday at 3:05 PM PT. Game three will be on Sunday at 12:05 PM PT. All three games will air on Pac-12 Networks and KZSU radio. Stanford comes in at 32-13 overall and 18-6 in the Pac-12 while Arizona comes in at 26-20 overall and 9-15 in the Pac-12.
Probable pitchers: On Friday, the matchup will be Stanford senior left-handed pitcher Quinn Mathews (6-3, 2.76 ERA, 107K) vs. Arizona junior right-handed pitcher Cam Walty (4-0, 3.12 ERA, 38K). On Saturday, the matchup will be Stanford junior right-handed pitcher Joey Dixon (4-0, 5.21 ERA, 68K) vs. Arizona junior left-handed pitcher Bradon Zastrow (4-4, 5.12 ERA, 48K). On Sunday, Stanford’s probable starter is yet to be determined, which means freshman right-handed pitcher Matt Scott is not guaranteed to start this weekend for the Cardinal as he has for the past few weekends. As for Arizona, sophomore right-handed pitcher Aiden May (4-2, 6.40 ERA, 60K) will get the start on Sunday.
Last time out: On Tuesday, Stanford defeated Santa Clara 20-17 on the road.
RECAP: #4 Stanford BSB wins donnybrook at Santa Clara
On Arizona: Despite having a far worse overall record and league record than Stanford, Arizona actually matches up pretty well with if you look at some of the stats:
Arizona has a .318 batting average while Stanford has a .307 average. Stanford has a .526 slugging percentage while Arizona has a .535 slugging percentage. Arizona has a .403 on base percentage while Stanford has a .396 on base percentage. Stanford’s OPS is .922 while Arizona’s OPS is .938. Stanford hits 1.78 home runs per game while Arizona hits 1.40.
As for ERA, Stanford has a 5.65 ERA while Arizona has a 5.45 ERA. Stanford’s fielding percentage is .972 while Arizona’s fielding percentage is .978. Stanford averages 5.01 walks allowed per nine innings pitched while Arizona allows 3.53 walks per nine innings pitched. And finally, Stanford averages 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings while Arizona averages 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Despite these numbers being very similar, Stanford has a .711 winning percentage while Arizona has a .566 winning percentage. The issue for Arizona seems to be their lack of ability to win close games. A lot of games have been close, but they have failed to finish the job.
The top contact and power hitter for the Wildcats is junior outfielder Chase Davis, who is batting .378 for 16 home runs and 52 RBIs to go along with a .750 slugging percentage and a .507 on base percentage. The number two contact and power hitter is junior utility Kiki Romero, who is batting .364 for 14 home runs and 68 RBIs to go along with a .717 slugging percentage and a .455 on base percentage.
One other thing that should be noted is that Xavier Esquer, son of Stanford head coach David Esquer is a freshman infielder for the Wildcats. So, there will be a bit of a friendly family rivalry this weekend. Xavier played across the street at Palo Alto High School.
Keys to the series: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is get the long ball to get going. They average more home runs than Arizona and need to make sure that trend continues this weekend. If Stanford hits more home runs, I like their chances to win the series. Especially if some of those home runs are 2+ run homers.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is not give up so many walks. Walking batters has been an issue for Stanford at times this year and that’s an area Arizona does much better in. If Stanford can keep the walks down. They should be fine.
Lastly, Stanford needs to keep it up with the strikeouts. The biggest strength of this Stanford pitching staff is strikeouts. They average more than Arizona and need to do so this weekend. If Stanford is striking out batters. They’ll be fine.
Prediction: I got Stanford winning the series. The question is whether or not to pick a sweep. Stanford has won five games in a row, so a sweep is very possible. Given that Arizona has been swept by Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona State, and UCLA combined with the kind of roll Stanford is on, I have to pick a sweep this weekend.
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