On Saturday at 8:00 PM PT on FS1, Stanford men’s basketball will take on the Oregon Ducks on The Farm. Stanford comes in at 6-12 overall and 1-7 in the Pac-12 while Oregon comes in at 11-8 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12.
It is Lunar New Year’s Eve as the Year of the Rabbit will be ushered in on Sunday. Perhaps a pure conscience, this game will be a “red out” game, which is appropriate since red is an auspicious color in Chinese culture for the Lunar New Year. As a fun little fact, Rabbits are frequently seen on the Stanford campus, especially during nocturnal hours.
Last time out: Stanford finally picked up their first conference win on Thursday with a 67-46 home victory over Oregon State.
RECAP: Stanford MBB dominates Oregon State on The Farm
On Oregon: The Ducks are a very dicey team. They recently beat then-No.9 Arizona 87-68 at home earlier this month, they won at Utah by a final score of 70-60, and they are coming off a dominating win in Berkeley in which they blasted the Golden Bears by a final score of 87-58. They have nights where they can be really dominant.
On the flip side, they lost at Colorado 68-41, they lost at home to Arizona State 90-73 right before their home victory over Arizona, and they also lost at home Utah Valley by a final score of 77-72 back in December. Utah Valley as many of you already know is coached by Stanford legend Mark Madsen.
So, you just don’t know which Oregon team is going to show up. Are you going to see the team that’s beating Arizona or are you going to see the team that gets crushed at home by Arizona State? Stringing together consecutive strong performances is a real challenge for them.
The Ducks are led by senior guard Will Richardson, who is averaging 14.5 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field, 32.0% shooting from 3-point range, and 78.0% shooting from the foul line. Inside, the Ducks have senior center N’Faly Dante, who is averaging 13.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and a shade over 1 block per game. Together, Richardson and Dante form a really nice inside-out combo.
The number three scoring option on this Ducks team is redshirt senior guard Jermaine Couisnard, who is averaging 12.8 points per game on some really impressive shooting numbers: 50.0% shooting from the field, 52.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.0% shooting from the foul line. Couisnard missed the first 14 games of the season but is now back, having played in the last five. The Ducks are 3-2 since his return.
As a team, the Ducks average 70.5 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field, 30.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 68.1% shooting from the foul line. They average 37.1 rebounds, 13.3 assists, 6.2 steals, 5.1 blocks, and 12.6 turnovers per game. They also average a +4.9 rebound margin and a -0.9 turnover margin per game. Their opponents average 66.1 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field, 32.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 76.6% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do shoot well from the perimeter. We saw on Thursday how much better they look when they are getting some three balls to fall. They don’t need to shoot an outrageous percentage, but they do need to knock down their threes at a healthy clip. If they can get some threes to fall, they should be in good shape.
Secondly, Stanford needs to defend the 3-point line. That’s a major reason why they’ve been struggling as of late. Couisnard in particular is one they need to watch in this department. I know Oregon’s 30.2% shooting from deep as a team isn’t great, but Stanford has allowed too many teams to make it rain even when they’re not a great perimeter shooting team.
Finally, Stanford needs to find a way to not allow Dante to get easy baskets inside. He’s an athletic big and will look to get going early and often with lobs and dunks. If Stanford can make things tough on him and not allow him to go to work in the paint, that more than anything will make the difference.
Floor burns: Going back to his days at Kansas, Stanford head coach Jerod Haase likes to keep track of his favorite stat “floor burns” which are counted for each time a player takes a charge or dives for a loose ball. Stanford has 174 floor burns so far this season, averaging 9.7 per game. James Keefe and Harrison Ingram both lead the way with 28 floor burns on the season while Spencer Jones and Michael O’Connell each have 23. Brandon Angel is looking like the next player to reach the 20 floor burn threshold as he currently has 19.
Prediction: Given Oregon’s mercurial nature, this is a game Stanford absolutely can win and in a weird way, it actually helps Stanford that Oregon is coming off a dominant victory at Cal. That’s a sign that a poor performance is coming soon. That said, Stanford simply hasn’t done enough this season to warrant being picked to win this game, so I’m going to pick the Ducks, though I think it’ll be a close game. Oregon 77 Stanford 72 is my prediction.
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