On Tuesday at 6:05 PM PT on Stanford Live Stream and KZSU radio, #8 Stanford baseball will take on Cal at Sunken Diamond in their fifth and final meeting of the regular season. Stanford comes in at 25-12 overall and 13-5 in the Pac-12 while Cal comes in at 18-18 overall and 6-15 in the Pac-12. It should be noted that this is a non-league game.
Last time out: On Sunday, Stanford defeated Washington 8-6 to win their weekend series against the Huskies. Temo Becerra hit his first career home run for the Cardinal. As a result of winning the series, D1Baseball.com now ranks Stanford #8 in the country.
RECAP: #9 Stanford BSB finds a way to win series against Washington
Probable pitchers: The starting pitching matchup for this one will be Stanford graduate student left-handed pitcher Nicolas Lopez (2-1, 5.11 ERA, 16K) vs. Cal sophomore right-handed pitcher Andres Galan (3-1, 3.80 ERA, 18K).
On Cal: The Golden Bears continue to struggle this season. They’re playing .500 ball overall and have a losing record in the Pac-12. Stanford swept them in Berkeley earlier this season, which also clinched the overall season series for Stanford against Cal. Cal did beat Stanford on a Tuesday at Sunken Diamond way back in February, so this will be the second meeting they’ll have had on The Farm. The final score of that game was 8-4.
The top contact and power hitter on this Cal team is Kade Kretzschmar, who is batting .333 for 10 home runs and 27 RBIs to go along with a .636 slugging percentage and a .400 on base percentage. Rodney Green, Jr. (.303 average, 8 home runs, 25 RBIs, .542 slugging, & .404 on base) and Caleb Lomavita (.301 average, 8 home runs, 27 RBIs, .537 slugging, & .364 on base) are both batting above .300 as well and are giving the Golden Bears a real boost on offense.
As a team, Cal is hitting .247 for 49 home runs, 212 RBIs, and 222 runs while their opponents are hitting .273 for 36 home runs, 189 RBIs, and 210 runs. Cal’s pitching staff has a 4.97 ERA while their opponents have a 5.59 ERA.
Keys to the game: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is get out of the gates strong on the mound. Pitching has been the major issue for them in these Tuesday games. Stanford cannot fall apart on the mound at the start and expect to win this game.
Secondly, Stanford needs to win the home run battle. Cal has some guys who can go yard, but so does Stanford. Home run hitting is the forte of this Cardinal offense. If Stanford hits more home runs than Cal, that should translate to a Cardinal victory.
Finally, Stanford needs to play a clean game. One of the things David Esquer talked about on Sunday was his team making things harder on themselves than needed. It’s all about playing clean and not making mistakes. Cleaning up errors, base running mistakes, etc. If Stanford plays a clean game, I like their chances to win.
Prediction: Stanford is 0-4 in Tuesday games this season. They lost to Cal at home, they lost to Santa Clara at home, they lost to Texas Tech at home, and they lost to Sacramento State at home. Oddly enough, Stanford is 2-0 in midweek games that are not played on Tuesday. They defeated Texas Tech on a Monday at home and they defeated Pacific on a Wednesday on the road. So they’ve shown they can win midweek games. It’s just that Tuesdays for whatever reason are really hard for them.
Given that data, it’s incredibly tempting to pick Cal to win tonight. Cal defeated Stanford earlier in the year at Sunken Diamond on a Tuesday and on top of that, Cal is 4-0 in Tuesday games. They’ve struggled in weekend series’, but Tuesday has been their day this year. And for good measure, Cal is 2-0 on Mondays. They do well in these midweek games.
That all said, I’m still going to pick Stanford to win this game by a final score of 9-8. I think Stanford is going to come out fired up and motivated to win on a Tuesday. David Esquer really lit a fire in his team after their last Tuesday loss to Sacramento State. I also expect Lopez to pitch a decent game and I think this being a rivalry game will add even more motivation for Stanford. It should be very interesting to see how this one shakes out.
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