This weekend, #3 Stanford baseball will open up their season on the road at Cal State Fullerton. On Friday, February 17th, the opening pitch will be at 6:00 PM PT. On Saturday, February 18th, the opening pitch will be at 5:00 PM PT. On Sunday, February 19th, the opening pitch will be at 1:00 PM PT. All three game will air on ESPN+ and KZSU radio.
Probable starting pitchers: For Friday, Stanford senior left-hander Quinn Mathews (9-2, 3.08 ERA in 2022) is the probable starter for the Cardinal while Cal State Fullerton senior left-hander Tyler Stultz (5-5, 3.86 ERA in 2022) is the probable starter for the Titans.
For Saturday, Stanford junior left-hander Drew Dowd (6-0, 4.54 ERA in 2022) is the probable starter for the Cardinal while Cal State Fullerton redshirt junior right-hander Trevor Hinkel (5-4, 3.80 ERA in 2022) is the probable starter for the Titans.
For Sunday, Stanford freshman right-hander Nick Dugan is the probable starter for the Cardinal while the Titans are leaving Sunday’s probable starter spot as TBD for the moment.
On Cal State Fullerton: In 2022, the Titans went 22-33 overall and 14-16 in the Big West. Their top returning contact hitter is junior infielder/outfielder Caden Connor, who hit .327 for 4 home runs and 37 RBIs for a .460 slugging percentage and a .414 on base percentage. Their top returning power hitter is junior infielder Brendan Bobo, who hit .258 for 8 home runs and 35 RBIs for a .508 slugging percentage and a .346 on base percentage.
On the mound, Stultz is their top returning starter while Hinkel is a transfer from Pepperdine, so they used the transfer portal to give their starting pitching a shot in the arm. Their pitching staff as a whole had a 5.20 ERA last season while their opponents had a 4.58 ERA, so pitching is definitely something they need to improve on.
Last season, Cal State Fullerton was able to take a game off Stanford in their series on The Farm. It was the opening series for both teams. Stanford won 1-0 on the Friday, Fullerton responded on Saturday to win 11-0, and then Stanford came back on Sunday to win 11-1, winning the series 2-1.
Keys to the series: For Stanford, the first thing they need to do is make sure their pitching is strong all weekend. It can take a bit of time for the bats to heat up in an opening weekend and so this is a series where defense in particular is going to be key. Mathews is going to need to set the tone on Friday and then Dowd and Dugan will need to follow.
It would also be huge if Stanford could take the first two games of the series just because they’re starting Dugan, a freshman, on Sunday. It would be really nice if they could go into Sunday’s game knowing they have the series wrapped up and are going for the sweep as opposed to having Dugan pitch with the series on the line in his first career start.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is just find ways to get on base. The home runs may not be falling this weekend and in general, it may be tough for them in the opening series to get the bats to warm up, but if they can just find ways to get on base, they should be able to get the runs needed to win provided the pitching holds.
Finally, Stanford needs to play clean defensively. While it can take a while for the bats to heat up in an opening series it can also be easier for the defense to make some errors given they haven’t played in so long. Stanford needs to play clean, not commit any errors, and not allow Fullerton to get anything for free. If they can do that, they should be fine.
Prediction: Given that Fullerton was able to steal one on The Farm last year, I’m going to give them the respect they deserve and say they’ll find a way to win a game this weekend on their home field. I think Stanford will win with Mathews on the mound and then split the two games when Dowd and Dugan take the mound. I also think at some point, the bats will come alive for Stanford for at least one of the games. They just have so much firepower.
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