Given my love for college hoops I thought it would be fun to do a monthly power rankings article for the NCAA Division I basketball teams in the Bay Area. I’ll be doing this for both men’s and women’s basketball. The purpose of this series is to provide a little bit of coverage for college hoops across the Bay Area, see how Stanford stacks up against local competition, and also provide a snapshot of where things sit for Stanford with respect to postseason chances.
As for which teams are considered “Bay Area”, based on the research I’ve done of Northern California geography, the following six programs make the list: California Golden Bears, Saint Mary’s Gaels, San Francisco Dons, San Jose State Spartans, Santa Clara Broncos, and Stanford Cardinal. In case you are wondering about UC Davis, Sacramento State, and Pacific, those three programs are located in what is called the “Central Valley.”
While the first rankings are coming in the middle of the season, the idea going forward is for it to be a monthly article that wraps up in April at the end of the season and then starts in October with a preseason ranking. Nothing in November since games will just be getting started.
Regarding how I’ll be doing the rankings, I will be looking at how teams did against shared opponents, against each other, whether games were home or away, how healthy teams were at the time of their matchups, and how a team is looking at the moment. So it’s not just going to be a strict body of work, though that of course will be a major component as well. In case you are wondering about NET, RPI, BPI, all those metrics, I’ll look at that stuff and factor that in, but this isn’t going to be all about what the computers say. These are my rankings.
With that all now out of the way, let’s dive into my first Bay Area power rankings for men’s basketball as of January 10th, 2024.
#1. San Francisco Dons: The Dons are off to a fantastic start this season. They are 12-4 overall and 1-0 in the WCC. Junior forward Jonathan Mogbo (14.8 points & 10.6 rebounds) and junior guard Marcus Williams (14.3 points) are both leading the way, doing an excellent job of providing their team with the kind of production that they need from them. At the moment, the Dons are looking like a team that has solid odds of making the NCAA tournament.
In terms of results, they have a 76-58 win over Minnesota at the Chase Center and also went on the road to beat Vanderbilt 73-60, so they’ve shown they can beat power five programs with ease. They did fall to Arizona State 61-72 on the road, but that’s not looking like a bad loss at all given the Sun Devils’ 4-0 start in Pac-12 play. Their opening win of WCC play was a bit scary as they defeated Pacific 92-88 on the road in overtime. Pacific is not very good, but a win is still a win.
Looking ahead to the rest of this month, they have a huge game at home against Saint Mary’s on Saturday, January 20th and then they’ll also head to Spokane to face Gonzaga on Thursday, January 25th. Obviously for the purposes of these power rankings, both of those games will be key. Especially the home game against Saint Mary’s. I got the Dons #1 for now, but if the Gaels go into War Memorial and come out victorious, they’ll leapfrog to #1 come the February rankings.
#2. Saint Mary’s Gaels: Just like San Francisco, the Saint Mary’s Gaels are sitting in a good spot for the NCAA tournament. They are 11-6 overall and 2-0 in the WCC. Sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney is balling out right now, averaging 13.5 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field, 31.0% shooting from 3-point range, and 76.9% shooting from the foul line. Junior guard Augustas Marciulionis (11.5 points) and senior center Mitchell Saxen (11.4 points & 8.3 rebounds) are playing really well, too. The Gaels have a nice inside/outside game, which makes them difficult to contain.
The best win the Gaels have so far is a 64-61 victory at Colorado State in early December. Colorado State is ranked right now, so that’s a nice win for them. However, they have some frustrating losses to Boise State, Utah, and San Diego State. San Diego State actually destroyed them 54-79 in Las Vegas and the Gaels were at full strength.
Prior to their game at San Francisco, the Gaels will have a road game at Santa Clara on Saturday, January 13th. So, they have a couple of games coming up that will have serious implications for these rankings. And then, on the final day of the month, they’ll host Santa Clara. So, I’ll have some stuff to break down on that front come February.
I feel like up to this point, the Gaels haven’t done enough to warrant being ranked ahead of San Francisco, but once again, if they defeat them later this month, that will change. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of this month shakes out for them.
#3. Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal came into this season with NCAA tournament hopes, but so far odds of them making the dance appear to be a long shot. They are 7-7 overall and 2-2 in the Pac-12. That’s not where they wanted to be at this point of the season.
The Cardinal have a lot of scoring balance as junior center Maxime Raynaud (13.6 points), freshman guard Kanaan Carlyle (12.7 points), senior forward Brandon Angel (12.6 points), fifth year forward Spencer Jones (12.0 points), and graduate student guard Michael Jones (11.6 points) are all scoring in double figures on average. Freshman guard Andrej Stojakovic (9.1 points per game) is starting to find a groove, too.
The Cardinal did have a disappointing 77-89 loss at home to Santa Clara at the very beginning of the season, but they were without Angel and Carlyle in that game. Carlyle actually missed the entire fall quarter due to a Stanford related academic matter. Stanford has now given him the green light to play as he has now played in six games. Had Carlyle been able to play the entire season, one can’t help but wonder if maybe they would have done better in their Bahamas trip. They had a 74-77 double overtime loss to Arkansas and a 78-83 loss to Michigan before getting blown out 51-73 by Northern Iowa.
A major reason why I have Stanford ranked third is because of how they have looked since they got Carlyle back. He has made a world of difference for them as he has become their number two scorer. He went wild in their 100-82 home victory over #4 Arizona with 28 points off the bench. That New Year’s Eve game showed what this Cardinal team is capable of doing if they play up to their max potential and have all their pieces. While they are almost certainly going to need to win the Pac-12 tournament to make the NCAA tournament, they do appear to have better odds of running the table in Las Vegas than in years past.
They are coming off a road split at UCLA and USC. They won at UCLA and fell to USC. Up next for them is a road game at Oregon State on Thursday, January 11th before coming home to face Utah on Sunday, January 14th.
As far as games against Cal are concerned, they will head to Berkeley on Friday, January 26th. That game could have an impact on these rankings. We’ll just have to see how that goes. They’ll also have a home game against Cal on Thursday, March 7th. So they’ll get to see the Bears twice.
While I do have Stanford ranked third right now, they need to keep playing like they have been as of late. If not, they could see their ranking slide.
#4. San Jose State Spartans: The Spartans are having a very strong season by their historical standards. A program that used to be down in the dumps and a lock for last place in the Bay Area has found new life under the guidance of head coach Tim Miles. The Spartans are 7-9 overall and 0-3 in the Mountain West. The NCAA tournament is a long shot for them, though they have the pieces to maybe get hot in the conference tournament and make a bit of noise there.
The Spartans have some talent. Their top players are junior guard Myron Amey, Jr. (15.3 points), junior guard Alvaro Cardenas (14.1 points), junior forward Tibet Görener (12.8 points), and senior forward Trey Anderson (12.5 points). I was at their game this week against #19 San Diego State. They fell by a final score of 81-78. They made some big shots and played really scrappy defense.
The only Bay Area team they’ve faced this season and will face this season is Santa Clara. On December 20th, they defeated the Broncos 81-78. That was a nice win for them.
Looking ahead to the rest of this month, road games at Air Force and Fresno State are next. They’ll then have home games against New Mexico and UNLV before closing out the month with a road game at Utah State on January 30th. Utah State is ranked #20, so that one will not be easy.
With regard to them being ranked 4th in my rankings, having watched them play San Diego State so tough made me feel comfortable to put them ahead of both Santa Clara and Cal. Especially since they defeated a healthy Santa Clara team earlier in the season. That said, Santa Clara and Cal absolutely may pull ahead of them down the road, so they can’t have a dip. On the flip side, if they are able to pick up a win at Utah State and heat up, they could possibly jump ahead of Stanford.
#5. Santa Clara Broncos: While they are ranked 5th, the Broncos actually are having a nice season. They are 11-6 overall and 2-0 in the WCC. Their top two players are junior guard Adama-Alpha Bal (15.9 points) and graduate student guard Carlos Marshall, Jr. (14.2 points & 5.6 rebounds). Their problem is nobody else on the team averages above nine points per game, so they really don’t have much support for their top two players.
A major reason why the Broncos are ranked where they are right now is their losses at Cal and at San Jose State. Now, they did beat Stanford on the road 89-77 at the very beginning of the season, but as I mentioned above, Stanford was missing Brandon Angel and Kanaan Carlyle. Had Stanford had both of those guys available, I feel Stanford would have won that game rather handily. That’s something I have to factor into my rankings.
That all said, the Broncos have plenty of opportunities to improve their ranking. They host #21 Gonzaga on Thursday, January 11th and they’ll face Saint Mary’s twice this month, so those are games that could bump them up a spot come February. Later on, they’ll have two games against San Francisco.
It’ll be fun to see what they do the rest of this month and whether or not they are able to move up come my next rankings.
#6. California Golden Bears: Bringing up the rear for now is the California Golden Bears. They are 5-10 overall and 1-3 in the Pac-12. They are coming off the worst season in program history and have a new head coach in Stanford alum Mark Madsen. Madsen had high hopes for his Bears out the chute, but alas they have had their struggles.
Their worst loss of the season was at home to Pacific back in November in which they fell 87-79. Pacific is 6-11 overall and got waxed at Idaho by a final score of 83-53. Just to give you some perspective. And then just in general, having only five wins up to this point is bad. They do have an 84-69 victory over Santa Clara at home, but Santa Clara was without Carlos Marshall in that one. Beating Santa Clara without one of their top two scorers isn’t much to write home about though still, credit to the Bears for not blowing that one.
That all said, Cal is getting better. They nearly defeated Arizona State at home, falling by just two points and then they most recently picked up a win at UCLA, winning by a final score of 66-57. They are definitely building some momentum.
The Bears are led by junior guard Jaylon Tyson, who is averaging 20.1 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. 6th year forward Fardaws Aimaq is averaging 15.5 points and 10.7 rebounds per game for a double-double while 5th year guard Jalen Cone (14.3 points) and 6th year guard Keonte Kennedy (10.8 points) are also scoring in double figures. They have a solid core and when they play at their best, they are capable of doing some damage.
Looking ahead to the rest of this month, they host Colorado on Wednesday, January 10th (tonight), play Oregon on the road on Saturday, January 13th and then host the Washington schools before their home game against Stanford on Friday, January 26th.
Cal has to like their odds to beat Stanford this month since they’ve won the last couple of home games against them, so that could help their ranking out. And then just in general, if they are able to finish out the month strong, they could definitely move up the rankings come February. Cal honestly could end up being a solid team during the second half of the season. They just gotta figure out how to gel.
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