Stanford football had their bye week this past weekend, giving me the chance to scout two of their future opponents in person: Cal and #15 Oregon State. Oregon State defeated Cal 52-40 on the road in Berkeley improving to 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the Pac-12. Cal is now 3-3 overall and 1-2 in the Pac-12.
BOX SCORE: Oregon State at Cal-Saturday, October 7th
Stanford will face Oregon State on Saturday, November 11th on the road in Corvallis and Cal the following week on Saturday, November 18th on The Farm for Big Game. While Oregon State on paper is the more difficult opponent, Cal poses some real challenges that will make it tough for Stanford to reclaim The Axe.
Starting with Oregon State, their quarterback DJ Uiagalelei looked really impressive. He went 19-25 for 275 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He knows how to throw in tight windows and makes really good decisions with the ball. Not a guy who Stanford can bank on to make a mistake. I was really impressed with his poise in the pocket and just his ability to keep plays alive.
Oregon State tight end Jack Velling carved up Cal, especially in the red zone as he had four receptions for three touchdowns and 38 yards. When Oregon State was looking to score and were threatening, he was a favorite target for Uiagalelei to find. At 6’4, 241 pounds, Velling has great size and is very agile. He has excellent hands and knows to find the end zone.
Oregon State wide receiver Anthony Gould had an excellent night with seven receptions for 117 yards. He did not score a touchdown, but nonetheless he was fantastic. He’s one who Stanford is going to have to pay close attention to.
In the backfield, running backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick really operated as one guy. They combined for 32 carries, 165 yards, and 1 touchdown. Martinez was the one who found the end zone, rushing for 89 yards on 17 carries. Fenwick rushed for 76 yards on 15 carries, so their yards per carry were almost identical. They form a very solid one-two punch in the backfield and will not be easy for Stanford’s defense to contain.
As a whole, Oregon State’s offense seemed to like to establish the run first to keep the defense honest before then making plays in the passing game. Stopping the run is really going to be key for Stanford against Oregon State. If they can stop the run, that will make Oregon State throw more than they would like. As well as Uiagalelei played and has been playing, he really does benefit from having a solid run game behind him.
Oregon State’s defense did not have their best outing as they gave up 40 points to Cal, so that obviously should give Stanford’s offense some hope to be able to put up some points. That said, Oregon State shut out Cal 7-0 in the 1st quarter and outscored them 17-8 in the 4th, so for half the game their defense was excellent. They stack the box well and play very physical on defense. Establishing the run against Oregon State is not going to be easy for Stanford, but it’s what they’re going to need to do if they want to pull off the upset in Corvallis. If Stanford can find success on the ground as Cal did, that will open up things for them in the passing game and give them a chance to put up enough points to win.
Switching gears to Cal, they appear to have found their quarterback in redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza played really well, going 21-32 for 207 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He got the start ahead of Ben Finley and Sam Jackson V, who both have been struggling. Rather than keeping it a Finley/Jackson race, Cal threw Mendoza into the mix and that appears to have been a good decision. Whether or not Mendoza remains the starter come Big Game remains to be seen, but if he keeps playing like he did against Oregon State and stays healthy, odds are really good he’ll be the one under center. He demonstrated a quick release, good vision, and for the most part he seemed to make good decisions with the ball. Obviously he’d like to have that one interception back.
Cal ran the ball very well against Oregon State’s defense as running backs Isaiah Ifanse and Jaydn Ott combined for 171 yards and two touchdowns on 24 combined carries. They operated as one guy as well. Ifanse had two touchdowns and 86 yards on two fewer carries than Ott. Rather than having you revert to your elementary school word problem skills, Ott had 13 carries for 85 yards while Ifanse had 11 carries to go along with his 86 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Going into the game, I was well aware of Ott’s abilities, but Ifanse was the one who I wasn’t aware of. He looked really good. Very shifty and quick. He also tacked on a nine yard receiving touchdown, so three touchdowns in total. Stanford’s defense is not going to have an easy time stopping either of these two guys. They’re both very talented running backs.
Similar to Oregon State, Cal has solid tight end play as well. Jack Endries had four receptions for 66 yards and one touchdown. At 6’4”, 230 pounds, he has good hands and is a load to bring down. Cal will look to get him involved early and often against Stanford.
As far as receivers are concerned, Taj Davis had a solid day for the Bears with six receptions for 63 yards while Trond Grizzell had two receptions for 38 yards. Both guys showed an ability to make plays in the receiving game and be solid targets for Mendoza.
One other similarity I see between Cal and Oregon State is that Cal too likes to establish the run first and use that as a springboard to success in the passing game. Cal is definitely not an air it out team. Running the ball is their offensive identity first and foremost with the passing game feeding off of that. At least that’s what I observed. Cal also has guys who can make plays in the red zone, so keeping them out of the end zone will not be easy if they get into that territory. So, very similar teams in terms of how they play offense. Oregon State just does it better.
And then Cal’s defense is also like Oregon State’s. Just not as good. They stack the box well and play physical. That said, the potential to get big gains against Cal is definitely there. Stanford has a lot of weapons in the passing game that can give the Cal secondary trouble provided they provide enough protection for the quarterback to make the right reads.
Wrapping this all up, Oregon State and Cal I feel are very similar teams in terms of their overall style. That’s why it was only a 21-17 lead for Oregon State at halftime. They were playing a team that is very similar to them in terms of style and identity. The difference in the end is that Oregon State is just a better version of Cal. There’s a reason they are ranked #15 in the nation while Cal will likely be coming to The Farm on a five game losing streak.
What this means for Stanford is Oregon State should be good preparation for Cal. Even if Stanford is not able to win in Corvallis, facing the Beavers first is an advantage for them in terms of getting back The Axe. They’ll be able to see what works and what doesn’t work against a team that is basically a much better version of Cal. How Stanford does against Oregon State will be a good window into what we can expect from them in Big Game.
Regarding early predictions, I’ll save those for my previews as November 11th and 18th are still a little ways off. That said, Stanford shouldn’t feel like either team is out of reach. Especially Cal. Winning at Oregon State is going to be a challenge and smart money will be to pick the Beavers. But against Cal, especially with Big Game being on The Farm, there is real hope that Stanford can reclaim The Axe. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how the next few weeks go for all three teams.
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