On Saturday at 5:00 PM PT on ESPN2, Stanford men’s basketball will welcome #4 Arizona to The Farm. Stanford comes in at 10-14 overall and 4-9 in the Pac-12 while Arizona comes in at 22-3 overall and 11-3 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Thursday, Stanford fell to Arizona State at home by a final score of 69-65. DJ Horne led the way for the Sun Devils with 18 points and 6 rebounds while Spencer Jones was the top scorer for the Cardinal with 17 points and 5 rebounds.
RECAP: Stanford MBB falls apart late against ASU
On Arizona: The Wildcats are one of the top teams in the nation and only half a game back of UCLA for first place in the Pac-12. They went undefeated in their non-conference games but have fallen to Utah on the road (66-81), Washington State at home (61-74), and at Oregon (68-87). Their three losses have all come in the Pac-12 and have all been pretty decisive losses. So, they do have their off nights to say the least.
The Wildcats are led by junior forward Azuolas Tubelis, who is averaging 20.9 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. The number two scorer on this Wildcats team is redshirt junior center Oumar Ballo, who is averaging 15.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. Junior guard Kerr Kriisa (10.6 points), junior guard Pelle Larsson (10.0 points), and fifth-year guard Courtney Ramey (10.0 points) are also scoring in double figures on average.
As a team, the Wildcats are averaging 83.4 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field, 36.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.3% shooting from the foul line. They average 41.2 rebounds, 19.6 assists, 6.5 steals, 3.7 blocks, and 13.8 turnovers per game. They also average a +8.1 rebound margin and a -1.3 turnover margin per game.
Keys to the game: The first thing Stanford needs to do is hold their own on the glass. In two of their three losses, Arizona was outrebounded by both Utah and Oregon.
Stanford averages a +3.8 rebound margin and is usually pretty active when it comes to crashing the boards. Arizona is excellent in this department. Stanford doesn’t need to out-rebound Arizona, but they need to keep it within three rebounds if they are to not outrebound them. If it’s close to an even game on the glass, Stanford will have a shot to maybe pull off the upset.
Washington State was able to knock off Arizona without winning the rebounding battle, but they kept it within four. So, that’s why I’m thinking Stanford needs to keep the margin at least within three if they’re not going to win the battle on the boards.
The second thing Stanford needs to do is win the 3-point battle. In all three of their losses, Arizona got out-shot from the perimeter and in two of those three losses (at Utah; vs. Washington State), they shot terrible from deep. They shot 4-28 at Utah and in their home loss to Washington State, they shot 4-25. If Arizona is not making it rain from the perimeter, Stanford will have a chance to pull off the upset.
Finally, Stanford needs to win the turnover battle. This is one weakness that Arizona consistently has as is evident by their negative turnover margin. If Stanford can take better care of the ball and force Arizona to turn the ball over, they could win this game.
Prediction: I’m picking Arizona. That’s the obvious prediction to make. 75-62 feels about right. Arizona is a top five team and Stanford is well, a below .500 team. One would have to be feeling really lucky to pick Stanford to win this game.
That said, this is not to say that Stanford cannot win this game or that one would have to be crazy to think an upset is possible. Anything is possible in sports and Stanford does have the talent to win this game if the stars align. Plus, Arizona has shown an ability to have some off nights and some strange losses. I mean, losing at home to Wazzu? That’s about as strange as it gets. Not to mention the fact that all of their losses were rather decisive.
If there’s one more reason for hope I can give the Cardinal, it’s the fact that how the Arizona State game goes does not always corelate to how the Arizona game will go. Back in the 2013-14 season, the last season Stanford made the NCAA tournament, I watched Cal upset Arizona at home off a game winner by Justin Cobbs when Arizona was #1 in the nation by a final score of 60-58 in Berkeley. Cal lost their previous game to Arizona State by a final score of 89-78.
Just because you lost to Arizona State at home, it doesn’t mean you can’t follow that up with a win over Arizona. And for those that are curious, the opposite was true for Stanford that year. They nearly handed #1 Arizona their first loss of the season, losing to the Wildcats by just three points (60-57) at Maples. But, Stanford was able to take care of business against Arizona State, winning 76-70 that same Saturday night that Cal knocked off Arizona. So, the homestand against the Arizona schools can be weird like that. It’ll be interesting to see how this one goes tonight for the Cardinal.
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