This weekend, No.2 Stanford baseball (45-15) will host the Connecticut Huskies (49-14) for a super-regional of the NCAA tournament. It will be a three-game series. The winner of the series will advance to the College World Series. Game one of the series will be on Saturday at 7:30 PM PT on ESPNU and KZSU radio. Game two will be on Sunday at 4:00 PM PT on ESPN2 or ESPNU and KZSU radio. Game three will be on Monday if necessary.
Last time out: Stanford defeated Texas State 4-3 on Monday to win the Stanford regional. Stanford trailed 1-3 in the bottom of the 9th inning.
RECAP: No.2 Stanford pulls off wild comeback to win regional
On Connecticut: UConn defeated Wake Forest 8-7 in their first game of the Maryland regional and went on to defeat Maryland twice, winning the regional-decisive game by a final score of 11-8 after losing the previous game 6-7. Unlike Stanford, they did not have to win three games in a row as they won the first two games of their regional. The Huskies came in as the #3 seed in the Maryland regional, so they were underdogs going into that regional and they will be underdogs going into this super-regional as well.
The top contact hitter on this Huskies team is sophomore outfielder Korey Morton, who has a .411 batting average to go along with a .652 slugging percentage, a .445 on base percentage, five home runs, and 26 RBIs. Morton is having a fantastic season and is very dangerous when he’s at the plate.
The top power hitter for the Huskies is graduate student outfielder/first baseman Casey Dana, who leads the team with 12 home runs to go along with 58 RBIs, a .324 batting average, a .564 slugging percentage, and a .390 on base percentage. Dana is not the only Huskies player with double digit home runs on the season as redshirt junior catcher Matt Donlan (11), graduate student first baseman/left-handed pitcher Ben Huber (11), and senior outfielder/right-handed pitcher Erik Stock (10) have double-digit home runs on the year as well. So, the Huskies got some power.
The three pitchers with the most starts are sophomore right-handed pitcher Pat Gallagher (10-3, 3.17 ERA), graduate student right-handed pitcher Enzo Stefanoni (6-1, 3.20 ERA), and senior right-handed pitcher Austin Peterson (11-2, 3.30 ERA). All three of them are excellent starters and project to be the starters this weekend. Should it go to a game three, whichever pitcher has not started yet is likely to get the start.
Across the board, the Huskies have a really solid pitching staff that knows how to give opposing batters trouble. They also have power in their lineup and ability to go wild at the plate. When you look at their statistics alone, it’s no shock they made it to a super-regional.
Keys to the series: I’m not going so far as to say Stanford NEEDS this to happen, but it would be huge if they could win their first game with senior right-handed pitcher Alex Williams (8-2, 2.35 ERA) on the mound. A major reason why they got pushed to the brim in the regional is they lost the game that Williams pitched. If Williams has a big night on Saturday and Stanford wins, they’ll be sitting pretty to win the series.
The next thing Stanford needs to do is win the home run battle. Connecticut has a lot of guys who can hit home runs as does Stanford with guys like Carter Graham (22), Brock Jones (17), Braden Montgomery (16), and others. Whichever team wins the home run battle is likely to have a real advantage in this series. If Stanford hits more balls over the fence, I like their chances.
Finally, Stanford needs to maintain their resolve and mental fortitude. They could have easily given up when they trailed 1-3 against Texas State in the bottom of the 9th inning on Monday, but they kept their composure, believed, and found a way to pull it out. That’s not to say Stanford should plan to be in that some position against Connecticut, but there very well may be moments where things look at least a little bit dicey. In those moments, Stanford has to find the resolve to dig deep and come through on the other side victorious. That involves hitting, pitching, and just playing good team defense.
X-factors: This is something new I’m doing for this preview. For Stanford, their X-factor is junior left-handed pitcher Quinn Mathews (9-1, 7 saves, 2.69 ERA), who has morphed into the team’s closer. How he’ll get used in this weekend remains to be seen. But if he is called upon and delivers the goods, he has a chance to make a real impact as he did in the regional.
As for Connecticut, their X-factor is senior right-handed pitcher Justin Willis (2-1, 15 saves, 4.68 ERA), who has been their primary closer this season. His ERA is a bit shaky, so there’s some vulnerability there, but he’s also done a terrific job of getting saves as a whole. How he pitches, if called upon, could have a real impact on this series.
You could also more broadly say the bullpens of both teams will be the X-factor this weekend, but I think putting the spotlight on the closers is the right move. Both Mathews and Willis will need to have big-time performances for their clubs if needed.
Prediction: Stanford is at home and they are the higher rated/ranked team. On those grounds alone, it’s easy to pick Stanford to win this series. That being said, Connecticut took out a really good Maryland team and is coming to The Farm with some confidence. I’m going to say Stanford takes the series, but it will be decided on Monday.
Being a bit more specific, I think Stanford will win on Saturday with Williams on the mound and Connecticut will find a way to even the series on Sunday before Stanford closes it out on Monday. I do not think this upcoming Monday will be as dramatic of a win as what we saw against Texas State. If it does go to a Monday game as I predict it will, I think Stanford will win on Monday rather comfortably.
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